Free Sports Picks For Thursday March 5th 2020

Dave's Friday Free Play:

1* on Nets/Cavaliers OVER 224

The Key: This is actually a pretty low total for a Nets game.  It's clear the Nets are going to be one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the NBA with Durant, Harden and Irving.  But Harden and Irving are defensive liabilities, so they are going to have trouble stopping teams all season and will have to outscore them.  We're seeing that already with the Nets beating the Magic 122-115 and the Bucks 125-123 in regulation.  They also lost to this same Cavaliers team 135-147 in double-overtime.  The OVER is 10-0 in Nets last 10 games overall.  Sometimes it really is just this easy.  Take the OVER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY on San Diego State vs Air Force over 128½ -105

1* NBA - Rockets/Pistons *FREE PICK* on Pistons -3

Today's free pick is on the Detroit Pistons -3 at home against the Houston Rockets. No one is going to want to lay points with a Pistons team that comes in with a 3-11 record, but I like Detroit in this spot. Houston is still trying to figure things out after the Harden trade and likely are going to keep struggling until they get healthy. They continue to play without point guard John Wall and now will have to play without Christian Wood, who has been their best player and one of the more underrated guys in the entire league. Houston is just 1-5 in road games. As bad as Detroit has been, this is a game they should find a way to win. Bet the Pistons -3! 

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1* Free Sharp Play on Capitals +126

*All NHL picks are generated using advanced statistics and scoring models*

The Wings are off to respectable start. However, they were dismal last season and it still figures to be a long year. In fairness, the "long year" part probably applies to the Hawks, too. Unlike the Wings, they've gotten off to a tough start. That's exactly what will make them a desperate team tonight though. Chicago's first four games came against Tampa and Florida. They faced both teams twice. The Lightning are the defending champs while the Panthers are also better than some may realize. Certainly, both teams are stronger than Detroit. Stepping down in class, look for the highly motivated Hawks to dig deep and deliver us their best effort. That should be enough to get them the important two points. Consider Chicago. 

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This is a Free play on on MUTD.

Liverpool is struggling, failing to score a goal in four straight Premier League matches. Normally they are a brick wall at home at Anfield, but their last two home matches were a draw to United and a loss to Burnley. Now they face the Red Devils in the FA Cup, and a return to form seems unlikely for the defending champions. Manchester United has conceded just one goal over their last four matches, and the Red Devils have been the better team since Christmas.

GL,

Jesse Schule

1* Free Pick on Grand Canyon -11 -107

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

PICK - Sacramento Kings -4 
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 552

This feels like a great price and spot to back the Kings as a small home favorite against the Knicks. I feel there's some value with Sacramento due to the fact that the Kings come in having lost 4 straight, while New York has won 3 in a row. Not to mention Sacramento is a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games. 

We can bank on a big effort here from the Kings in this one. Not only is Sacramento going to be motivated to get back in the win column after losing their last 4, they are going to be extremely fresh, as this will be just their second game in the last 5 days.

The same can't be said for New York. Knicks are primed for a letdown after 3 straight upset wins and even more so when you factor that this will be playing in the 2nd leg of a back-to-back set on the road. Give me the Kings -4! 

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 1/22:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for the Friday early slate in college basketball is with Coastal Carolina minus the points versus Troy. Coastal Carolina (9-3) looks to rebound from a 71-68 loss at Georgia State as a 7-point underdog on Saturday as a 7-point underdog. The Chanticleers have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. Coastal Carolina has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite. Troy (6-7) has lost three in a row with their 63-56 loss at Georgia Southern on Saturday. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. Troy has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. Lay the points with Coastal Carolina. Best of luck — Frank.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Boston Celtics +5

The Boston Celtics just lost 109-117 in Philadelphia on Wednesday.  Now the Celtics will be the revenge-minded team in this same matchup just two days later on Friday.  Everything went right for the 76ers in that game as they got all the calls and made 36 of 45 free throw attempts.  The Celtics were just 13 for 20 from the line in that contest.  It's amazing the 76ers only won that game by 8 points given that disparity.  I can't see that happening again.  The Celtics are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as underdogs.  The 76ers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games off an ATS win.  Boston is 25-13 ATS in its last 38 games when revenging a defeat.  Give me the Celtics.

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The set-up: Edmonton and Toronto were the two favored teams in the North Conference. The Oilers have been lacklustre in the early going, but they moved to 2-3 after taking the first game of this two game set by a score of 3-1. The Oilers have been inconsistent from game-to-game in the early going, so it's hard to trust that they're going to bring the same energy here after already getting a win in the first game.

The pick: The goaltenders are a "wash" here in my opinion. The overall situation favors the Leafs after the first loss though, as note that they're 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a two-goal in-season home-loss to an opponent. Consider TO on Friday.

This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Indiana Pacers -4

The Indiana Pacers will be motivated for a win tonight off two straight losses to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Clippers and Mavericks.  Now they should get right here against an Orlando Magic team that has been struggling for weeks.

The Pacers just got Jeremy Lamb back from a torn ACL.  He scored 10 points in 19 minutes and will only get better as the season goes on.  There's a chance that they get Myles Turner back tonight as well.  Either way, this team is good enough to win and cover against the Magic tonight.

Orlando is 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall with the six losses coming by an average of 19.8 points per game.  Their only win came in a 20-point comeback against the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves as 4-point favorites, winning at the buzzer 97-96.  Injuries have been a problem for the Magic all season and continue to be.

The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Pacers are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a double-digit home loss.  Indiana is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Pacers are the more rested team right now playing their 3rd game in 8 days, while the Magic will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

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My free play is on Siena at 7:00 ET.

No. 1 Gonzaga is 14-0 and No. 2 Baylor is 13-0. "Flying under the radar" are Winthrop (15-0) and Drake (13-0 / 11-0 ATS). Then there is the 6-0 Siena Saints of the MAAC, who will welcome the St Peter's Peacocks (6-5) to Times Union Center on a 16-game winning streak stretching back to last season's 10-0 closing run!

St Peter’s last played on Jan 2 but will show up in Albany with a solid starting-five. A pair of 6-7 forwards are averaging in double digits in Nidefo (12.8 & 5.5) and Drame (10.3 PPG) plus a team-high 7.4 RPG. Banks (11.8 & 4.0) leads a trio of guards, joined by Edert (8.8 & 3.5) and PG Lee (6.8 PPG and 4.2 APG). Siena PG Jalen Pickett entered this season having averaged better than 15.0 PPG and 6.0 APG the last two seasons but has played just three games this season. In those three games he's averaged 17.7-9.7-4.3 but is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Siena still has three guards averaging in double digits without Pickett, led by King (14.3), the 6-7 Camper (12.7 & 10.2) and Hopkins (10.3). Two 6-9 players contribute up front, Stormo (9.3 & 5.2) and Young (8.8 & 4.8).

In Carmen Maciariello's first-ever head coaching job, he turned in a brilliant debut last season. The Saints went 15-5 in the MAAC (20-10 overall), winning the school's first conference regular season title since 2010. His second season has been trying due to COVID but I'm NOT stepping in front of this Siena 'train,' which has won 16 in a row. Lay the modest points.

Good luck...Larry

23 Detroit at Chicago

We bet half the hockey nation will to tuned into this contest! Maybe not as we likely have two of the worst three teams in the league doing battle. But we know what to do with two teams that don't know how to win, take the underdog. Hard to back the Blackhawks as a favorite considering the 13-3 deficit when playing 5 on 5 this season. That's correct, this team has been outscored by 10 goals in regulation thus far, and is installed as a favorite. Detroit on the other hand have been outscored in 5 on 5 9-7. Take the plus price in what we consider to be a coin flip contest.

PLAY DETROIT

Houston has taken part in some fairly low scoring affairs of last going under in 9 of their L/10 trips to the hardwood. Meanwhile, Pistons HC Casey has not been happy with his teams defense of late, and is mobilizing for a more conservative effort that pays attention to the opponents transition game. Back to basics for the Pistons has me leaning on this being a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the total.

The Pistons are 0-18 UNDER L/18 as a dog off a game as a dog in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored.

 NBA  Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 55-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER