Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest — 7/4/20 Odds and Prediction
Hey there! Have you stopped by CappersPicks today looking for Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest betting odds and a free pick? The Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest must go on and for the first time ever in its more than 100-year history, it will be recognized as a sports event open to legal wagers in three states — New Jersey, Colorado and New Hampshire.
How to watch 2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
Where: Brooklyn, New York
When: Saturday, July 4, 2020 Noon ET
That is not the only first this year. The event will take place indoors and without fans, due to health concerns over the covid-19 pandemic. It will also feature just five competitors, instead of the usual 15-20.
Will the unfamiliar atmosphere cause either Joey Chestnut or Miki Sudo — the two long-time favorites in the men’s and women’s contest, respectively — to stumble?
The contest airs live on ESPN at 12pm ET on the 4th of July.
2020 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds – Joey Chestnut
Since unseating his Japanese nemesis, Takeru Kobayashi, in 2007, Chestnut has grown into a sort of American folk hero.
He has won 12 of the last 13 contests, including a world record 74 hot dogs and buns two years ago.
He goes off at -1000 vs the field at our Recommended Sportsbooks.
2020 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds – Miki Sudo
Miki Sudo dispatched “The Black Widow” Sonya Thomas six years ago and has had a stranglehold on the women’s competition ever since. She is nearly as big a favorite on the women’s side as Chestnut on the men’s at -835.
How to Bet
The gap between Chestnut and the rest of the field and Sudo and the rest of the field has been large for many years now and the field will not be radically different than it has.
A a couple of regional winners will debut this year, as is the case every year, but they will not be a threat to unseating the champs. Brett Healey and Steven Hammond took down 32.5 and 32 hot dogs and buns in Des Moines and Salt Lake City, respectively, in the regional championships.
The women in the respective competitions were even further behind the high standard set by Sudo, who has averaged more than 36 dogs and buns over the last three years.
I don’t have any reason to suggest playing the field. Betting the favorites feels like a sure thing but it’s also priced that way. There isn’t much value to be had by betting the big dogs.
2020 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds
Our sportsbooks are also offering a couple total lines for both Chestnut and Sudo and that’s where I’m going to take my money.
Chestnut is a -162 favorite to go over 72.5 dogs.
So not only do we get a rather nice +125 payout on the under but Chestnut has only ever gone over 72.5 once in his career (when he set the record of 74 in 2018).
With a slimmer field, the chances of someone pushing Chestnut to the limit are smaller. Without the fans, he may feel less pressure to shoot for a new world record.
The result is likely to be an easy victory in the mid to high-60s for Chestnut and an easy under winner for us. Even on the women’s side, I like Sudo to finish under 40.5 for a +115 payout.
Play: Chestnut Under 72.5 (+125)
Here are some PROPS for the 2020 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest
- Men’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2020 winner: Joey Chestnut (-1250) vs. the field (+650)
- Women’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2020 winner: Miki Sudo (-835) vs. the field (+500)
- Hot dogs eaten by Joey Chestnut: Over 72.5 (-137), Under 72.5 (+105)
- Hot dogs eaten by Miki Sudo: Over 40.5 (-143), Under 40.5 (+110)
2020 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Prop Bets
Joey Chestnut Hot Dogs Eaten Prop
- 73-74 +150
- 71-72 +175
- 75+ +200
- 69-70 +700
- 67-68 +900
- 65-66 +2000
- 64 or fewer +2800
Where is your $$ going?