2026 PGA Tour Picks
It’s time for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Free Picks, and as always, CappersPicks.com has you covered with PGA golf betting predictions and handicapping insight. With another opportunity to profit from the latest stop on Tour, bettors looking to sharpen their edge can lean on our breakdowns all week long.
If you’re betting this tournament, understanding course history, current form, and where the market tends to overreact matters just as much as the raw numbers themselves.
In other words, blindly backing recognizable names without considering how they fit Bay Hill’s demanding layout is rarely the sharpest betting strategy.
That’s where we come in.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Where: Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge; Orlando, Florida
- Date: March 5–8, 2026
- Format: Strokes
- Defending Champion: Russell Henley
- TV Coverage: NBC, Golf Channel, ESPN+, SiriusXM
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Free Picks
The 2026 PGA Tour season continues with the next stop of the Florida Swing as the Arnold Palmer Invitational returns to Bay Hill Club & Lodge this weekend. Notably, this tournament stands as the third Signature Event on the PGA Tour schedule.
As a result, the field is stacked with elite talent including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, world No. 2 Rory McIlroy, and last year’s winner and runner-up Russell Henley and world No. 5 Collin Morikawa.
Signature events have become must-watch stops on the schedule. Consequently, bettors should expect a tighter odds board and a deeper group of legitimate contenders compared to standard Tour events.
This Week on the PGA Tour
The Arnold Palmer Invitational traditionally signals the heart of the Florida Swing and serves as a major checkpoint in the early PGA Tour season. With a 72-player field and elevated purse, the third signature event of the year once again brings together many of the biggest names in the game.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler arrives after finishing T12 at the Genesis Invitational, snapping an impressive streak of 18 consecutive top-10 finishes. Even so, his elite tee-to-green game still makes him one of the toughest players to beat on Tour.
World No. 2 Rory McIlroy also enters in strong form after finishing T2 at Riviera, matching Kurt Kitayama and falling just one shot shy of winner Jacob Bridgeman. Notably, McIlroy mounted a serious Sunday charge with four birdies on the back nine.
Meanwhile, world No. 3 Tommy Fleetwood continues his consistent start to the season. He finished T7 at the Genesis Invitational and previously recorded a T4 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Consequently, he has already banked nearly $1.5 million across his first two signature event appearances.
Additionally, Justin Thomas returns to competition for the first time since the 2025 Ryder Cup. The 16-time PGA Tour winner has been sidelined after undergoing back surgery in November, forcing him to miss the first seven events of the 2026 season.
Last Year
Russell Henley captured the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational with one of the most dramatic finishes of the season. A late charge by the Georgia native culminated with a chip-in eagle on the 16th hole, helping him close with a 2-under 70 to secure the biggest win of his career.
At one point, however, Henley trailed Collin Morikawa by three shots with just five holes remaining. That deficit quickly disappeared when Morikawa bogeyed the par-3 14th after missing the green, while Henley answered with a birdie after sticking his tee shot inside 10 feet.
Moments later came the defining shot of the tournament. Henley’s miraculous eagle chip on the par-5 16th flipped the leaderboard and ultimately sealed the victory.
Meanwhile, Corey Conners quietly worked his way into contention by opening Sunday with 15 consecutive pars before finishing with a round of 71, two shots off the lead. As a result, the Canadian secured a spot in The Open Championship at Royal Portrush.
Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley also made headlines, setting a tournament record with a 29 on the front nine Sunday before finishing with a 64 to move into a tie for fifth.
However, defending champion Scottie Scheffler struggled with the putter throughout the week and ultimately settled for a T11 finish.
Past Arnold Palmer Invitational Winners (2016–2025)
- 2025 — Russell Henley
- 2024 — Scottie Scheffler
- 2023 — Kurt Kitayama
- 2022 — Scottie Scheffler
- 2021 — Bryson DeChambeau
- 2020 — Tyrrell Hatton
- 2019 — Francesco Molinari
- 2018 — Rory McIlroy
- 2017 — Marc Leishman
- 2016 — Jason Day
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Free Picks – PGA Golf
At the same time, course history and current form remain essential factors when wagering on Bay Hill.
For that reason, players who control their irons, manage difficult rough, and avoid big mistakes on the course’s demanding finishing stretch often separate themselves from the field.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
Fitzpatrick has quietly been building momentum. He finished ninth, 14th, and 24th across his last three PGA Tour starts. Going further back, he recorded four top-10 finishes late in the 2025 season and captured the DP World Tour Championship.
Consequently, his well-rounded game and strong iron play make him an excellent fit for Bay Hill.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Kurt Kitayama +4000
Kitayama finished runner-up at the Genesis Invitational and clearly looks comfortable in these signature events. In addition, he already owns a victory at Bay Hill after winning this tournament two years ago.
Because of that familiarity, this number still carries solid value.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Shane Lowry +4500
Lowry enters the week in excellent form after spending much of the Cognizant Classic atop the leaderboard before finishing T2.
What’s more, his ball-striking consistency and ability to manage windy conditions should translate well at Bay Hill.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Jacob Bridgeman +6000
Bridgeman arrives riding a wave of confidence after winning the Genesis Invitational, another signature event. The analytics show he ranks among the best players on Tour across multiple advanced metrics.
Additionally, he finished T15 here last year, proving he can handle Bay Hill’s challenge.
Full Handicapping Odds To Win The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Here are the latest odds to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, laying out the full range of pricing from the short favorites to deeper options. From there, the board naturally breaks into several playable tiers depending on how much risk a bettor is willing to take.
- Scottie Scheffler +340
- Rory McIlroy +1000
- Tommy Fleetwood +1900
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
- Xander Schauffele +2500
- Russell Henley +2700
- Collin Morikawa +2700
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational – Mid-Tier Contenders
This range often attracts bettors searching for upside without paying premium prices. Meanwhile, confidence and recent iron play typically separate this group from the true longshots.
- Hideki Matsuyama +3000
- Si Woo Kim +3300
- Robert MacIntyre +3300
- Patrick Cantlay +3300
- Cameron Young +3300
- Harris English +3500
- Ben Griffin +4000
- Rickie Fowler +4000
- Sam Burns +4000
- Chris Gotterup +4000
- Kurt Kitayama +4000
- Ludvig Åberg +4000
- Jake Knapp +4000
- Viktor Hovland +4000
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational – Darkhorse Bets
This is the part of the board where outcomes get less predictable and risk comes with the territory. Even so, bettors willing to live with that volatility can still find real win equity here when form, confidence, and course fit align.
- Justin Rose +4500
- Maverick McNealy +4500
- Adam Scott +4500
- Shane Lowry +4500
- Jason Day +5000
- Min Woo Lee +5000
- Justin Thomas +5500
- Jordan Spieth +5500
- Keegan Bradley +5500
- Pierceson Coody +5500
- Jacob Bridgeman +6000
- Akshay Bhatia +6000
- Sepp Straka +6000
- Alex Noren +6000
- J.J. Spaun +6000
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational – Longshots
At this end of the board, expectations shift away from pure win probability and toward situational upside.
Because of this, longshots at the Arnold Palmer Invitational tend to be more about course fit, recent ball-striking trends, and catching the right side of the draw rather than chasing raw talent alone.
- Nicolai Højgaard +7000
- Nico Echavarria +7000
- Ryan Gerard +7000
- Nick Taylor +7000
- Harry Hall +7000
- Michael Thorbjornsen +7500
- Corey Conners +7500
- Max Greyserman +8000
- Taylor Pendrith +8000
- Ryan Fox +8000
- Samuel Stevens +8000
- Sahith Theegala +10000
- J.T. Poston +10000
- Denny McCarthy +10000
- Matt McCarty +10000
- Daniel Berger +10000
- Sungjae Im +10000
- Keith Mitchell +10000
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PGA Tour on X
Don’t miss right on 18.
Staying focused will lead to improved outcomes on one of the toughest holes at Bay Hill.
(Presented by @ReliaQuest) pic.twitter.com/WfB5MlwHiZ
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 4, 2026
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