Free NFL Wild Card round Pick: Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds
Looking for Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers free Wild Card round picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Commanders taking on the Buccaneers on Sunday, January 12th at the Raymond James Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Playoff games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Washington Tampa Bay wild card matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Wildcard Playoffs
2025 NFL Wild Card Weekend
(12-5) Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Date: Sunday, January 12th
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay FL
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Washington +3 | Tampa Bay -3
NFL Moneyline Odds: Washington +153 | Tampa Bay -182
NFL Betting Total: O/U 50.5
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Buckle up for a thrilling Wild Card showdown as the Washington Commanders (12-5) travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) at Raymond James Stadium.
Odds this week favor the Bucs -3, and the Over/Under total is set at 50.5.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Buccaneers have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread the Commanders went 2-1.
The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 53 points per game.
This rivalry, tied 13-13 all-time, adds a postseason chapter to its storied history, with Washington holding a 1-2 playoff record against Tampa Bay.
Their last postseason clash came in 2020, when Tampa edged out a 31-23 victory.
Fast forward to now, and both teams bring intriguing dynamics into this high-stakes matchup.
Washington Commanders
Washington heads into the playoffs on a five-game winning streak, finishing the regular season with a 12-5 record. This puts them 2nd in the NFC East and 6th in the conference. In our power rankings, the Commanders sit 11th. They went 7-2 at home and 5-3 on the road.
Washington has an ATS record of 10-6-1, with a +5.5 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 11-6, with their games averaging 51.5 points compared to an average line of 45.9.
Washington Commanders Stats
Heading into the Wild Card round, the Commanders rank 5th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.5 points per game. They’ve been strong on the ground, ranking 5th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game with 154.1. Washington is 17th in passing yards per game, despite being 21st in pass attempts. They’ve been efficient on 3rd down, converting 45.6% of the time, and they rank 2nd in 1st-quarter scoring.
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In their most recent game, Washington’s defense came up with a strong performance, despite allowing 378 total yards to the Cowboys. They held Dallas to 41.2% on third down and limited them to 150 rushing yards on 39 attempts. Washington’s secondary played well, allowing just 20 completions for 228 yards and not giving up any passing touchdowns.
Washington’s defense also managed two sacks in the game and won the tackles for loss battle, although they did lose the quarterback hit differential by -6. Despite giving up some big plays, they were able to help lead the Commanders to a 23-19 victory.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers ended the regular season with two straight wins, including a 27-19 victory over the Saints in week 18. Tampa Bay was favored by 15 points but couldn’t cover the spread, though the 46 points scored in the game hit the over (44.5). In week 17, the Bucs easily covered the 10-point spread by beating the Panthers 48-14.
With a 10-7 record, the Bucs finished first in the NFC South and are 3rd in the NFC. They ranked 7th in our power rankings heading into week 1. Tampa Bay has an average scoring margin of +6.9 points per game and is 10-7 against the spread. Their O/U record is 12-5, with the over hitting in four straight games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats
The Buccaneers’ defense played well on third downs in their 27-19 win over the Saints, allowing just a 23.1% conversion rate. They also limited the Saints to 64 yards on 19 rushing attempts. In the passing game, the Buccaneers gave up 228 yards through the air, with one touchdown allowed and a 61.9% completion rate against them.
Overall, the defense held the Saints to 292 total yards. They recorded two sacks, had a positive differential in QB hits, and also led in tackles for loss.
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Commanders are 3-1-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Buccaneers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Commanders are 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Buccaneers have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Commanders’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Buccaneers’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +130 | +151 | +3 | +3 |
| Buccaneers | -158 | -178 | -3 | -3 |
4* Free Wild Card NFL Betting Prediction: Washington +3 (Parlay with OVER)
Washington has struggled historically in road playoff games (8-13), but we all know their recent form and ability to score make them a formidable threat.
Tampa Bay, no stranger to postseason success, leans on its own offensive firepower, ranking similarly high in efficiency. With both defenses sitting 20th or worse in pass DVOA, this game screams offensive fireworks.
Jayden Daniels & Baker Mayfield will put on a show in this matchup, and our prediction for this Wild Card matchup is a 31-28 win for Washington in a game that will be a thriller.
Even though Tampa Bay is the home team, our model has Washington coming out on top.
As for the total, with the line at 50.5 points, we have these teams FLYING OVER the total, combining for 59, making the OVER a huge play for us.
The Commanders, riding a five-game winning streak, have been electric behind quarterback Jayden Daniels and an offense that ranks in the top seven in DVOA.
The betting lines reflect the closeness of the matchup, with Tampa Bay favored by just a field goal. The total of 50.5 feels ripe for the taking, given the offensive explosiveness and the OVER hitting in 12 of Washington’s last 18 and five of Tampa’s last six games.
Expect a classic!
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Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Winning the NFC South AND Mike Evans breaking 1K… We couldn’t do it without you, Krewe 🏟️🤝
🎥: @SonyElectronics | #ShotonSony FX3 pic.twitter.com/f1320SlKUR
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 7, 2025
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