Free NFL Conference Championship Pick: Commanders vs. Eagles Odds
Looking for Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles free Conference Championship picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Commanders taking on the Eagles on Sunday, January 26th at the Lincoln Financial Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Playoff games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Washington Philadelphia NFC Championship matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Conference Championship Weekend
2025 NFC Championship
(12-5) Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Date: Sunday, January 26th
Time: 3:00 ET
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia PA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Washington +6 | Philadelphia -6
NFL Moneyline Odds: Washington +233 | Philadelphia -286
NFL Betting Total: O/U 47.5
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Get ready for fireworks as the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles collide in the NFC Championship, a storied rivalry that dates back to 1934. Washington leads the all-time series 90–86–6, but history may not be on their side this Sunday.
Philadelphia, boasting a 14-3 record, has been nearly unbeatable at home this season, going 10-1 at Lincoln Financial Field and riding a 14-1 streak over their last 15 games.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Eagles have the leg up at 2-1. Against the spread, each team went 1-1-1 and finished with an over/under mark of 2-1.
These games averaged a combined 60 points per contest.
The Eagles have dominated Washington recently, winning six of their last eight meetings at home and covering the spread in eight of their last 11 games overall.
Washington Commanders
Washington heads into the conference championship on a five-game winning streak, including a 45-31 win over the Lions in the divisional round.
The Commanders were 8.5-point underdogs in that game, but they pulled off the upset, bringing their record to 12-5. They are 2-0 in the playoffs, with a 23-20 win over the Buccaneers in the wild card round and a 23-19 victory over the Cowboys in week 18.
Washington ranks 6th in our power rankings and is 12-6-1 against the spread this season. They have an average scoring margin of +5.8 and are 7-4 ATS as favorites and 5-2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 12-7, with their games averaging 52.4 points compared to a line of 46.7.
Washington Commanders Stats
Jayden Daniels has been impressive under center for the Commanders, posting a passer rating of 122 in the divisional round against the Lions, with 299 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22/31 passing.
He was not sacked in the game. Before that, he threw for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Wild Card round, with a passer rating of 110. Marcus Mariota started in Week 18, throwing for 161 yards and 2 touchdowns with a passer rating of 140.
Washington ranks 4th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 29.1, and they are 5th in yards per game with 374.5. They lean on the run game, ranking 3rd in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game. On 3rd down, they convert 45.6% of the time, which ranks 6th in the league.
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Despite giving up 201 rushing yards on just 23 attempts, the Washington Commanders’ defense came up with four interceptions in their 45-31 win over the Lions.
Washington’s defense was tested, as they allowed 521 yards and 25 completions to Detroit. The Commanders defended the pass well, allowing just a 58.1% completion rate and holding the Lions to a 33.3% third-down conversion rate.
Washington did allow one passing touchdown and gave up 320 yards through the air. They managed two sacks and had a +5 advantage in the quarterback hit battle.
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia finished the regular season 14-3, going 5-1 in the NFC East and 11-3 in conference play. They were 2nd in the NFC and 1st in their division. The Eagles have a +9.4 scoring margin and are 12-7 against the spread, including a 3-0 record as underdogs.
Their O/U record is 8-11, with their games averaging 44.6 points compared to a 44.9-point line.
After a week 16 loss to the Commanders, the Eagles have won two straight, including a 28-22 win over the Rams in the divisional round. They were favored by 7 points but didn’t cover.
In the wild card round, they beat the Packers 22-10, covering the 5.5-point spread.
Philadelphia Eagles Stats
Philadelphia’s offense has been heavily reliant on the run game this season, leading the NFL in rushing attempts (36.3 per game) and ranking 2nd in rushing yards per game (184.3). Saquon Barkley has been a big part of that, rushing for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns on 26 carries in the divisional round, following a 119-yard performance in the Wild Card round.
The Eagles are 31st in passing yards per game (177.9), with Jalen Hurts throwing for 128 yards on 15/20 passing in the divisional round, after his 131-yard, 2-touchdown game against the Packers in the Wild Card.
Philadelphia ranks 7th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 27, and they are 9th in total yards per game (362.2). They have struggled on 3rd down, converting just 40% of their attempts in the divisional round, after a 2/11 performance in the Wild Card. The Eagles are also 26th in the league in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 4th in red zone attempts.
In their 28-22 win over the Rams, the Eagles’ defense gave up 402 total yards, including 291 passing yards on 26 completions. The Rams ran the ball 21 times for 111 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.
Despite allowing 111 rushing yards, Philadelphia’s defense was able to come up with five sacks.
The Eagles’ defense held the Rams to a 37.5% conversion rate on third down. Even though they allowed two passing touchdowns, Philadelphia limited the Rams to a 59.1% completion percentage.
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Commanders are 3-1-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Eagles are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Commanders are 5-4-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Eagles have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Commanders’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Eagles’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Commanders vs. Eagles Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +197 | +234 | +4.5 | +6 |
| Eagles | -240 | -286 | -4.5 | -6 |
4* Free NFC Championship Betting Prediction: Philadelphia -6
The Commanders, led by dynamic QB Jayden Daniels, are the feel-good story of the postseason, but facing the Eagles’ juggernaut feels like the end of the road.
Philadelphia’s offensive firepower, anchored by Saquon Barkley’s dominance—348 yards and four touchdowns in two games against Washington this season—will be hard to stop. The Eagles’ defense has also held firm, making it even tougher for Washington to keep pace.
Our pick is to take the Eagles to cover the spread in this week three post-season matchup vs. the Commanders. Even though the Eagles are 6-point favorites (which is a ton in an NFL playoff game), we have them winning by a score of 24-17.
While Washington’s resilience has been commendable, their 4-12 record against Philadelphia in their last 16 games, combined with a 2-6 road mark in Philly, paints a daunting picture.
For the over/under, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 41, and the TOTAL line sitting at 47.5.
This game is being played in a venue where the Eagles thrive, and the Commanders’ Cinderella story looks poised to meet a harsh reality.
The betting lines favor the Eagles by six, and it’s easy to see why—they have the talent, the home-field edge, and the momentum to take control in this heavyweight NFC clash.
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Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Onward to the NFC Championship ➡️
See you on Sunday at 3:00pm on FOX.@acmemarkets | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/y8cHFvqrgo
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) January 19, 2025
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