Free NFL Week 18 Pick: Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds
Looking for Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Commanders taking on the Cowboys on Sunday, January 5th at the AT&T Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 18 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Washington Dallas matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 18
(11-5) Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Washington -4.5 | Dallas +4.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Washington -227 | Dallas +185
NFL Betting Total: O/U 44
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The Week 18 clash between the Washington Commanders (11-5) and Dallas Cowboys (7-9) promises to deliver plenty of intrigue as playoff implications and historic rivalries collide.
The Cowboys hold a commanding edge in the all-time series at 79-48-2, including a 34-26 victory in their last meeting back in November.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Cowboys have the leg up at 3-0. The Cowboys also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 54 points per game leading to an over/under record of 3-0.
Washington, already locked into the postseason, may rest key starters like Jayden Daniels, which could open the door for a fired-up Dallas squad to capitalize.
Washington Commanders
With four straight wins, the Commanders have improved to 11-5 and secured a playoff spot heading into week 18. After a week 12 loss to the Cowboys, Washington bounced back with three consecutive victories, including a 36-33 win over the Eagles in week 16 and a 30-24 win over the Falcons in week 17.
They covered the 3.5-point spread against Atlanta, bringing their ATS record to 10-5-1 this season.
Washington currently ranks 9th in our NFL power rankings and has a +5.6 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in their last two games.
This season, their games have averaged 52.1 points, while the average O/U line has been 46.1 points.
Washington Commanders Stats
Jayden Daniels has thrown for 227 yards in week 17, 258 yards in week 16, and 226 yards in week 15. In the win over the Falcons, he had 24 completions on 36 attempts, with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Daniels was sacked 5 times in week 17, after only being sacked once in week 16. He also led the team in rushing against Atlanta, with 16 carries for 127 yards.
Olamide Zaccheaus led the Commanders in receiving in week 17, with 8 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. He had 5 catches for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 16. Terry McLaurin had 7 catches for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 15.
Washington has scored well in the first quarter, putting up 7 points in each of the last 3 games.
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In their 30-24 overtime win over the Falcons, the Commanders’ defense held Atlanta to just a 20% conversion rate on third down. They allowed 126 rushing yards on 23 attempts, with one of the team’s two sacks coming in the backfield. Washington’s defense also limited the Falcons to 211 passing yards and a 54.3% completion rate.
Despite giving up 337 total yards, Washington’s defense made key plays when needed, as they intercepted a pass and held Atlanta to just a 6% touchdown rate in the red zone.
The Commanders also forced the Falcons into several three-and-outs throughout the game.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are 7-9 heading into week 18, putting them 3rd in the NFC East and 10th in the conference. They have a -7.1 scoring margin and are 6-10 against the spread. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in three straight games.
Dallas ranks 28th in our power rankings and has a 0% chance of making the playoffs. After two straight wins, they couldn’t keep the momentum going in week 17, losing 41-7 to the Eagles.
Dallas Cowboys Stats
Heading into week 18, the Cowboys are 26th in our offensive power rankings. They are 20th in the NFL in points per game (20.7) and 19th in yards per game (324.3). Dallas ranks 11th in passing yards per game (227.1) and 27th in rushing, with 97.2 yards per game on the ground.
They are 22nd in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36.5% success rate.
Cooper Rush struggled in week 17, throwing for 147 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, with a passer rating of 50. Dallas scored all 7 of their points in the 1st quarter against the Eagles.
Rico Dowdle rushed for 104 yards on 23 carries, and Brandin Cooks led the team with 52 receiving yards on 4 catches.
In their most recent game, the Cowboys’ defense allowed the Eagles to convert on 46.2% of their third downs, giving up 41 points in a lopsided 41-7 loss. The Cowboys’ secondary was hit for big plays, as the Eagles averaged 10.4 yards per attempt through the air and finished with three passing touchdowns.
Despite allowing just 13 completions, Dallas gave up 197 yards through the air.
Dallas struggled to generate any pressure, failing to record a sack and losing the quarterback hit battle to the Eagles. On the ground, the Cowboys gave up 179 rushing yards on 42 attempts, with the Eagles finishing with 376 total yards in the game.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Commanders are 2-3 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Cowboys are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Commanders are 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Cowboys have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Commanders’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Cowboys’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +185 | -226 | +5.5 | -4.5 |
| Cowboys | -225 | +185 | -5.5 | +4.5 |
4* Free Week 18 NFL Betting Prediction: Dallas +4.5
Dallas has been strong against Washington recently, going 5-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last six matchups. On the road, the Cowboys have consistently found success, winning eight of their last 11 games in Washington’s territory.
Meanwhile, the Commanders have struggled against NFC East opponents, dropping seven of their last nine matchups.
With the Commanders favored by 4.5 and the betting total set at 44, this game could swing on how aggressively Washington decides to approach the matchup versus a Dallas team hungry to end their season on a high note.
Our model has the Cowboys coming out on top by a score of 26-24 in their matchup against Washington. With this projection, we like the Cowboys to cover, as they are currently 4.5-point home dogs.
For this week 18 matchup between the Commanders and Cowboys, we also have a pick for the over/under. The line is currently sitting at 44 points, and we have these teams combining for 50 points, making the over a great play in this one.
Whether it’s a chance for the Cowboys to play spoiler or the Commanders to fine-tune before the playoffs, expect a compelling showdown in Arlington!
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Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
puttin’ in that work 🧰#WASvsDAL | @oakley pic.twitter.com/kzQokvcRaE
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) January 2, 2025
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