Free NFL Week 17 Pick: 49ers vs. Commanders Odds
Looking for San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders free NFL Week 17 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the 49ers taking on the Commanders on Sunday, December 31st at the FedEx Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 17 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this San Francisco Washington matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 17
(11-4) San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders (4-11)
Date: Sunday, December 31st
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: FedEx Field, Landover MD
NFL Week 17 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) San Francisco -13.5 | Washington +13.5
Week 17 NFL Moneyline Odds: San Francisco -955 | Washington +574
NFL Betting Total: O/U 48.5
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No matter how I dissect it this matchup looks lopsided.
Last week the Commanders covered as 3-point road underdogs in a 30-28 loss to the Jets, while the 49ers couldn’t cover as 6.5-point home favorites, losing 33-19 to the Ravens. ATS Stats: 49ers 8-7 | Commanders 6-8-1.
The 49ers and Commanders faced off one time last season with the 49ers picking up a 37-20 win.
The over/under line in last year’s matchup between the 49ers and Commanders was 37.5, which they surpassed with 57 point combined.
The 49ers finished with the ATS win in this game. Offensively, the 49ers finished with 371 total yards with 218 coming in the passing game and 153 on the ground.
The Commanders finished with 349 yards of offense in the loss. The 2023 contest is their fourth meeting in five seasons. The 49ers lead the all-time series 22-12-1.
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San Francisco 49ers
As week 17 approaches, San Francisco is in 1st place in the NFC-West, coming in with an overall record of 11-4. In the NFC, they currently reside in 1st place.
This has led to an ATS record of 8-6-1.
Even though the 49ers’ did a good job moving the ball on offense, racking up 21 first-downs, they still lost the Ravens. Overall, the 49ers finished with 429 yards of offense. On the other side, the Ravens rushed for 102 and threw for 241 yards.
San Francisco also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 6.5 point favorites. Brock Purdy did not throw or run for a touchdown, while completing 18 of 32 passes for 255 yards. Purdy ended the game with a passer rating of 42.
San Francisco 49ers Stats
San Francisco’s offense finished with 429 yards of total offense vs. the Ravens. On third down, the 49ers converted at a rate of 42.9%. Christian McCaffrey was the 49ers’ top rusher with 103 yards while Purdy threw for 255 yards.
The San Francisco offense is currently ranked 3rd in the league, averaging 29.6 points per contest.
Defensively, San Francisco is 3rd in the NFL in points allowed. Their opponents have an average of 17.8 points per game while gaining 312.3 yards per contest.
Washington Commanders
In 15 games, the Commanders have a 4-11 record. This has them situated 4th in the NFC-East and 14th in the NFC.
This season, the Commanders boast an above .500 record versus the spread, currently standing at 6-8-1. Their average scoring margin for this season is -9.6.
The Washington had a sluggish offensive start vs. the Jets, as they were unable to score in the first quarter. Overall, the Commanders recorded 245 yards of offense and yielded 381 yards on defense. Even though Washington lost the game straight-up, they did cover the spread as 3-point underdogs.
Jacoby Brissett threw for 100 yards while completing 76% of his passes and throwing for 100. Brissett threw for one touchdown.
Washington Commanders Stats
Offensively, the Commanders rushed the ball 22 times against the Jets. Chris Rodriguez Jr. led the ground attack with 58 yards. Jacoby Brissett made 13 passing attempts, accumulating 100 yards and achieving a passer rating of 123.
The Commanders come in with an average 20.6 points per game on offense, which has them 20th in the NFL.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Commanders give up an average of 261.6 passing yards and 122.7 rushing yards per game.
Looking at their sack numbers, Washington is currently ranked 12th in the league. So far, they are giving up 30.2 points per game and 384.3 yards.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders NFL Football Betting Trends
- The 49ers are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Commanders are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the 49ers are 5-4-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Commanders have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the 49ers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 3-0.
- The Commanders’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
49ers vs. Commanders Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
49ers | -770 | -955 | -13 | -13.5 |
Commanders | +540 | +574 | +13 | +13.5 |
4* Free Week 17 NFL Betting Prediction: San Fran -13.5
Expect to see a familiar scoreline this week. The 49ers dominated Washington in their previous meeting on December 24, 2022, winning 37-20, with a strong 30-13 performance in the second half. A similar outcome is anticipated this week.
Look for the Commanders offense to be unable to take advantage of this amped up 49ers defense.
The trends strongly favor a 49ers blowout! San Francisco has been dominant, winning 6 of their last 7 games outright (SU) and 6 of their last 8 matchups against Washington.
They’ve also performed well on the road, covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 away games and winning 6 of their last 8 road games against Washington.
On the other hand, Washington has struggled, with a 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 games and a 0-6 SU record in their most recent 6 matchups. Their home record is also concerning, with 5 consecutive losses.
Even though the Commanders are 13.5-point dogs, I like don’t like them to cover the spread against the 49ers.
With an over/under of 48.5, our prediction is that this game will go over, resulting in a combined total of 59 points.
San Francisco comes into this week’s game with an average margin of +3.6 against their over/under lines.
The total trends suggest potential high-scoring action: Washington has seen the total go OVER in 5 of their last 6 games and in 4 of their last 5 against NFC opponents.
San Francisco has had the total go OVER in 4 of their last 5 games.
49ers Commanders NFL Handicapping
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Three keys to getting the win in Week 17@Kia | #HTTC
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 29, 2023
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