Free NFL Pick: Steelers vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Steelers taking on the Patriots on 9/21 at Gillette Stadium, in New England. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NFL football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NFL predictions like this Steelers Patriots free pick.
2025 NFL Handicapping – Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots
(1-1) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots (1-1)
Date: Sep 21, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA
NFL Moneyline Odds: Steelers -128 | Patriots +108 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Steelers -2.0 | Patriots +2.0
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 44.5
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Steelers vs. Patriots Gameday
This Week 3 matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots takes place at Gillette Stadium. Set for a Sunday afternoon kickoff on September 21, 2025, viewers can tune in on CBS.
Turning our attention to the Pittsburgh Steelers, they enter the game with a 1-1 record. Under the guidance of head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have shown strength on the road with a win against the New York Jets. Their previous outing, however, saw them fall to the Seattle Seahawks at home.
Switching to the New England Patriots, they also hold a 1-1 record this season. Head coach Mike Vrabel will look to capitalize on their recent victory against the Miami Dolphins. Yet, the Patriots aim to redeem themselves at home after a season-opening loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Week 3, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots, we’re all hoping a great game is in store.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Odds & Last 5
Interestingly, the game odds reflect a tight contest between the Steelers and the Patriots. The Steelers hold a slight edge with a moneyline of -128, while the Patriots are at +108. Meanwhile, the spread is narrow, favoring the Steelers by 1.5 points.
In their previous encounter with the Seahawks, the Steelers fell short at home with a final score of 31-17. They struggled to generate offense, especially in the running game with only 72 rushing yards. This contrasts with their season opener against the Jets, where they secured a win despite allowing 182 rushing yards.
Conversely, the Patriots redeemed themselves after an opening loss to the Raiders with a win over the Dolphins. Their defense managed to hold the Dolphins to just 61 rushing yards, showcasing their ability to control the ground game. The Patriots will seek to maintain this defensive strength against the Steelers’ offense.
Patriots Stats
The New England Patriots head into Week 3 with a mixed start to their season. They secured a victory against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, winning 33-27, which provided a boost after a Week 1 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Patriots will now aim to capitalize on their recent success as they play at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Offensively, quarterback Drake Maye has been a standout performer for the Patriots. He has accumulated 517 passing yards over the first two games, ranking 9th in the league, and has thrown 3 touchdowns. His connection with wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, who has 119 receiving yards and a touchdown, has been a key factor in their offensive strategy.
On the defensive side, the Patriots have shown their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Defensive end Milton Williams recorded 2 sacks in the game against the Dolphins, while linebacker Harold Landry III added another sack to his tally. The defense will need to maintain this pressure to limit the Steelers’ offensive threats.
In terms of injuries, the Patriots face challenges with several key players on the injured reserve list. Offensive tackle Morgan Moses and cornerback Christian Gonzalez are both day-to-day with injuries, which could impact their availability. The team will need to rely on their depth to navigate these absences and continue their momentum.
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Steelers Stats
First, let’s dive into the Steelers’ offense. In the 2024 season, they scored 380 points, placing them 15th overall. Their passing game ranked 27th with 3,264 yards, while the rushing attack was more effective, ranking 11th with 2,166 yards. Their ability to convert on third downs was solid, with a 39.5% success rate, ranking 14th.
Defensively, the Steelers were strong last season. They allowed 347 points, which was 8th best in the league, and recorded 40 sacks, ranking 9th. Additionally, their defense excelled at creating turnovers, with 17 interceptions (3rd) and 16 fumble recoveries (1st), while allowing 5,554 opponent offensive yards, ranking 12th.
Recently, the Steelers have had mixed results. They secured a narrow victory against the New York Jets in Week 1, winning 34-32, but stumbled in Week 2 with a 31-17 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Aaron Rodgers has been a key player, throwing for 447 yards and 5 touchdowns over these two games, despite facing some interception challenges.
In terms of injuries, the Steelers are dealing with several key absences. Notably, Alex Highsmith is out with an ankle injury, impacting their defensive strength. With multiple players on injured reserve, including Dean Lowry and Donald Parham Jr., the Steelers will need to rely on their depth as they head into Week 3 against the Patriots.
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Steelers vs. Patriots QB Matchup
Aaron Rodgers, the seasoned quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers, has been a key player in the early part of the 2025 season. In two games, he has accumulated 447 passing yards, ranking 14th in the league, and has thrown five touchdowns, placing him 3rd. Notably, he has managed to avoid any interceptions, showcasing his precision and decision-making on the field.
Rodgers is projected to throw for 226 yards in the upcoming game against the New England Patriots. With an average of 1.7 passing touchdowns per game, he is expected to continue his strong performance. His fantasy points projection stands at 14.5, indicating his potential impact in this matchup.
On the other side, Drake Maye leads the New England Patriots with impressive stats in his first two games of the season. He has thrown for 517 yards, ranking him 9th in the league, and has achieved three passing touchdowns. Maye has only one interception, reflecting his ability to maintain control under pressure.
Looking ahead to the game against the Steelers, Maye is projected to pass for 215.4 yards. He is expected to contribute 1.3 passing touchdowns, which aligns with his current performance trend. His fantasy points projection of 15.2 suggests he will be a significant factor in the Patriots’ offensive strategy.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Football Betting Trends
- The Steelers have gone 5-1 (83.3%) in over/under as favorites in their last 6 regular season games.
- The Steelers have a 4-2 (66.7%) straight-up record as favorites in their last 6 regular season games.
- The Steelers have hit the over in 6 of their last 7 away games (85.7%).
- Also, the Patriots have hit the over in 7 of their last 8 games as underdogs (87.5%).
- Additionally, the Patriots have gone over the total in 6 of their last 7 home games (85.7%).
- The Patriots have a 9-2 (81.8%) over/under record after a loss in their last 11 games.
Steelers vs Patriots Prediction: Steelers -2 (Parlay with ML -128)
The Steelers have proven reliable when laying points, posting a 4-2 record as favorites in their last six games.
They’ve also shown the ability to travel well, cashing the over in six of their last seven road contests thanks to an offense that doesn’t stall away from Pittsburgh.
With New England struggling to find consistency on offense, the Steelers look like the sharper side both against the spread and on the moneyline.
The Patriots ranked just 28th in scoring last season and their defense, which allowed the 21st-most points, has not been able to bail them out. That’s a tough profile to bring into a matchup with a Steelers team that capitalizes on mistakes and grinds out covers.
Historically, these franchises have crossed paths in some memorable games, with Pittsburgh winning three of the last four meetings.
Most recently, the Steelers handled the Patriots 21-18 in 2023, showing they can get it done against Bill Belichick’s team even in Foxborough.
Given Pittsburgh’s steady form, New England’s offensive woes, and the recent head-to-head edge, backing the Steelers ATS and pairing it with a -128 ML leg in a small parlay looks like a sound strategy.
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Who needed some throwback wallpapers?#WallpaperWednesday | #NEPats pic.twitter.com/70VCcUHp00
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 17, 2025
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