Free NFL Week 17 Pick: Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds
Looking for New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers free NFL Week 17 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Saints taking on the Buccaneers on Sunday, December 31st at the Raymond James Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 17 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New Orleans Tampa Bay matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 17
(7-8) New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
Date: Sunday, December 31st
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay FL
NFL Week 17 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New Orleans +3 | Tampa Bay -3
Week 17 NFL Moneyline Odds: New Orleans +131 | Tampa Bay -159
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42
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To say this game doesn’t mean much would be a big lie! A Week 17 win against the New Orleans Saints would secure the NFC South division title for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Conversely, the fate of the 2023 Saints season hinges on their ability to secure wins in their remaining two games.
During their first meeting, Buccaneers secured a 26-9 win against Saints. Coming into the game, the Buccaneers were the underdogs at +4.5 and picked up an ATS win.
When the game started, the over/under line was 40.5 points, and the team’s fell short of it.
Although New Orleans holds a historical advantage in the series at 39-24, the Buccaneers have claimed the win in the most recent 3 matchups.
In their time as division rivals, the Bucs and Saints have faced each other 43 times, with New Orleans emerging victorious in 26 of those matchups.
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New Orleans Saints
Throughout this season, the Saints have a record of 7-8, which positions them at 3rd in the NFC-South. Their performance reflects a 1-2 record as underdogs and 6-6 when they are favored.
The Saints have a 4-10-1 ATS record so far. As we enter week 17, their scoring margin per game is +2.3.
In the Saints’ loss to the Rams, the Saints finished with 339 yards of offense compared to the Rams’ 458. The Rams ran the ball 32 times for 133 yards and averaged 9.6 yards per passing attempt for 325 yards.
New Orleans’ 8 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 4 point underdogs. Derek Carr threw for 319 yards while completing 67% of his passes and throwing for 319.
Carr threw for three touchdowns.
New Orleans Saints Stats
On offense the Rams finished with 16 rushing attempts, and Alvin Kamara was the leading rusher with 19 yards. In the passing game, Carr threw the ball 40 times, accumulating 319 yards and a passer rating of 106.
With an average of 22.1 points per contest, the New Orleans offense currently ranks 12th in the league.
The Saints currently rank 20th in tackles for loss and 17th in sacks on the defensive side.
Their opponents are averaging 19.8 points per game and 321.6 yards per contest against them.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Heading into their matchup with the Saints, the Buccaneers have a 8-7 record.
In the NFC-South, they are in 1st place and 4th place in the NFC overall. The Buccaneers’ current ATS record is 10-5.
In the Buccaneers’ win over the Jaguars, the Buccaneers did a good job moving the ball against the Jaguars defense, finishing with 22 first-downs and racking up 335 yards of offense.
Defensively, the Buccaneers allowed a total of 305 yards of offense to the Jaguars. Tampa Bay went into the game as the underdog (+2), giving them a straight-up and ATS win.
Baker Mayfield threw for 283 yards while completing 74% of his passes and throwing for 283. Mayfield threw for two touchdowns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats
The Buccaneers’ offense produced a total of 335 yards against the Jaguars. On third downs, the Buccaneers achieved a conversion rate of 52.6%.
Notably, Rachaad White led the rushing attack with 39 yards, while Mayfield passed for 283 yards.
At home, the Buccaneers are averaging 18.3 points per contest compared to their overall numbers of 21.7 points per game. In the league, Tampa Bay is 15th in overall scoring.
In terms of yards allowed, the Buccaneers are 24th in the league while giving up 356.2 yards per contest.
Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed 20.1 points per game, placing them 11th in the NFL.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Saints are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Buccaneers are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Saints are 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Buccaneers have gone 7-3 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Saints’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Buccaneers’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Saints | +108 | +131 | +1.5 | +3 |
Buccaneers | -126 | -159 | -1.5 | -3 |
4* Free Week 17 NFL Betting Prediction: New Orleans +3
In their last game, the Buccaneers defense struggled to get off the field, giving up 23 first-downs. Look for the Saints offense to take advantage of facing a struggling defense.
The New Orleans Saints have excelled with an 8-3 ATS record against Tampa Bay and a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road. In December, they hold a 4-2 SU record.
Tampa Bay has struggled with a 0-5 ATS record at home against the Saints,
Even though the Saints are the 3-point underdogs on the road, I like them to cover the spread against the Buccaneers.
If you’re looking for a pick on the over/under, the data we have suggests this game finishing below 42 points.
For this game, my money is on the under.
The Bucs have shown a strong UNDER trend, with the total going UNDER in 15 of their last 20 games, including 12 of their last 15 NFC matchups.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games against New Orleans.
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Saints Buccaneers NFL Handicapping
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New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Let Baker bake 👨🍳
(via @NextGenStats) pic.twitter.com/0g2m2okydq
— NFL (@NFL) December 28, 2023
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