Free NFL Week 18 Pick: Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds
Looking for New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Saints taking on the Buccaneers on Sunday, January 5th at the Raymond James Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 18 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New Orleans Tampa Bay matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 18
(5-11) New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay FL
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New Orleans +13.5 | Tampa Bay -13.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: New Orleans +608 | Tampa Bay -931
NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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Week 18 brings us a divisional clash with plenty of intrigue as the Buccaneers (9-7) host the struggling Saints (5-11) at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay holds the upper hand in the all-time series, but the Saints have seen brighter days in this rivalry. With the Bucs pushing for playoff positioning, this game has all the makings of a one-sided affair, especially given Tampa Bay’s strong 6-2 ATS record in their last eight and 5-1 SU streak in their last six.
Meanwhile, New Orleans is limping into this matchup with a dismal 1-4 ATS mark in their last five and an 0-5 ATS skid on the road.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Buccaneers have the leg up at 2-1. The Buccaneers also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 49 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
The Buccaneers seem ready to roll in this must-win contest, and the energy in Tampa should reflect just that.
New Orleans Saints
Heading into week 18, the Saints are on a three-game losing streak, including a 25-10 home loss to the Raiders in week 17. This dropped them to 5-11, putting them 29th in our power rankings and eliminating them from playoff contention. New Orleans is 2-3 in the NFC South and 4-7 in conference play, ranking 3rd in the division. They are 3-6 at home and 2-5 on the road.
New Orleans has a -3.2 average scoring margin and is 6-10 against the spread. They are 1-3 ATS as favorites and 5-7 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 7-9, with the under hitting in five straight games.
New Orleans Saints Stats
Heading into week 18, the Saints’ offense ranks 20th in our power rankings, scoring 19.9 points per game, which is 22nd in the NFL. They average 321.9 yards per game (20th), with 203.8 passing yards (24th) on 31.8 attempts per game. On the ground, they rank 14th in rushing yards per game, with 118.1 on 26.6 attempts. New Orleans is 23rd in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36% success rate, but they are 7th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 19th in red zone attempts.
Spencer Rattler threw for 218 yards in week 17, completing 20 of 36 passes with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. The Saints struggled on 3rd down, converting just 1 of 10 attempts, and failed to score in the red zone. Juwan Johnson led the team with 66 receiving yards on 6 catches, while Rattler also led the team in rushing with 46 yards on 3 carries.
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The Saints’ defense struggled to generate pressure in their most recent game, finishing with just one sack and losing the quarterback hit differential by -5 in their 25-10 loss to the Raiders. New Orleans gave up 232 passing yards, with Las Vegas finding the endzone twice through the air. Overall, the Saints allowed the Raiders to convert on 55.6% of their third down attempts.
On the ground, the Saints gave up 156 rushing yards on 38 attempts. Despite their struggles defending the run, the Saints’ defense did hold the Raiders to 4.1 yards per attempt. In the passing game, the Saints limited Las Vegas to a 57.1% completion percentage.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Heading into week 18, the Buccaneers hold a 9-7 record, putting them first in the NFC South. Our projections give them an 86.2% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. Tampa Bay currently ranks 7th in our NFL power rankings. They have a +6.8 average scoring margin and are 10-6 against the spread this season.
The Bucs bounced back from their week 16 loss to the Cowboys with a 48-14 win over the Panthers in week 17. They covered the 10-point spread, improving their record to 9-7. The combined 62 points in the game hit the over, extending their over streak to three games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats
In our offensive power rankings, the Buccaneers are 7th in the NFL, and they are 4th in points per game, averaging 29.7. They have been excellent on 3rd down, leading the league with a 50% conversion rate, and they rank 3rd in red zone attempts. However, they are 29th in red zone conversion percentage, scoring on just 4.5% of their trips inside the 20. Tampa Bay also leads the NFL in 1st-quarter scoring, averaging 7.2 points.
In week 17, Baker Mayfield threw for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns, with a passer rating of 152. Mike Evans had 8 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bucky Irving rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries. The Buccaneers scored 10 points in the 1st quarter and converted 10 of 14 3rd downs in their 48-14 win over the Panthers.
In their 48-14 win over the Panthers, the Buccaneers’ defense allowed just 39 rushing yards on 13 attempts and held Carolina to 204 total yards. Despite giving up two passing touchdowns, Tampa Bay defended the pass well, allowing only 165 yards through the air and limiting the Panthers to a 53.6% completion rate. The Buccaneers also excelled on third downs, allowing only a 22.2% conversion rate, and recorded five sacks.
The Panthers did find some success with big plays in the passing game, as both of their touchdowns came on plays of 20 yards or more. However, the Buccaneers’ ability to pressure the quarterback was evident, as they not only recorded five sacks but also had a positive differential in QB hits and tackles for loss.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Saints are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Buccaneers are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Buccaneers have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Saints’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Buccaneers’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | +114 | +607 | +2.5 | +13.5 |
| Buccaneers | -135 | -931 | -2.5 | -13.5 |
4* Free Week 18 NFL Betting Prediction: Tampa Bay -13.5
Mike Evans could be the X-factor here, as he’s poised to chase down personal incentives in what promises to be a big game for him and Baker Mayfield. The Saints’ defense has struggled to contain top playmakers, and Evans is primed to exploit those weaknesses.
The 13.5-point spread might look hefty, but with the Saints losing four of their last five outright and against the spread, Tampa Bay’s firepower makes this a tough hill to climb for New Orleans.
Our projections have Tampa Bay winning this week 18 matchup vs. New Orleans by a score of 30-14. Despite New Orleans being the heavy 13.5-point dogs, we are going with Tampa Bay to not only cover but win straight-up.
For this one, we are going with the over as our top pick vs. the spread. The current O/U line is 43.5 points, and we have the teams combining for 44 points, making the over a small lean.
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New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
All eyes on the NFC South 👀 pic.twitter.com/ubZx1HcLeU
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 3, 2025
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