Free NFL Prediction: Saints vs Chargers Odds
Looking for New Orleans Saints vs. San Diego Chargers free picks? Week 4 NFL betting sees the Saints taking on the Chargers on Sunday, October 2nd at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions.
(0-3) New Orleans Saints vs. San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Date: Sunday, October 2nd
Time: 4:25 PM
Venue: Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA
ATS Betting Lines: San Diego Chargers -4.0
NFL Moneyline Odds: Off
NFL Betting Total: 53.5
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A late fumble by rookie tight end Hunter Henry cost the Chargers an opportunity to win on the road at Indianapolis.
The Chargers moved to 1-2 but very well could be undefeated.
Their Week 4 opponent – the New Orleans Saints – has also lost two close ones but got dominated on their home turf on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
The Saints defense allowed 6 straight scoring possessions to the Falcons and lost 45-32.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints biggest asset could also be part of what is limiting their success this season.
There is no question that Drew Brees is an elite quarterback and deserves the recognition that comes with that.
However, on a team that has plenty of holes on defense and the offensive line, Brees’ huge contract is limiting the Saints ability to surround him with other great players.
The defense has looked very bad in two of their three games and makes for a difficult path to winning in the current state of the NFL.
The Saints offensive model that relies so heavily on the passing attack can shoot them in the foot sometimes. When your defense is weak, you need to control the clock and keep them off the field as much as possible.
The Saints lead quick drives – whether they end in scoring plays or not. New Orleans is 17th this season in time of possession despite running the 6th most plays per game.
Like the Chargers, the X-factor in this game for the Saints will be their running game. If they can control the tempo and keep their defense off the field, the offense could help in slowing down Rivers and Gordon.
San Diego Chargers
A close loss doesn’t mean anything at all in the NFL because many games are close; that is what separates the good teams – they win close games.
The Chargers now return home with a chance to take advantage of a very porous Saints defense. The Saints gave up 442 yards of total offense and allowed Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ pair of running backs to have their choice of how they wanted to beat them.
Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense played well on Sunday despite losing Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead but their last two possessions were ended by fumbles – taking away their chance to steal a win on the road.
Despite looking much improved in the first two weeks, Melvin Gordon rushed 16 times for just 35 yards against the Colts as the Chargers had to rely on Rivers to move the ball through the air.
The Chargers should mirror the Falcons method of beating the Saints and rely on Gordon to pick up big chunks of yards on 1st and 2nd down. The Falcons ran for 215 yards against the Saints and Gordon should be able to return to his form from the first two weeks.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers will be expecting a heavy passing attack. Brees is going to move the football – there is no question about it.
The Chargers need to capitalize on the Saints 21st ranked 3rd down offense to stall the offense and force the Saints into field goals.
Gordon is probably the X-factor for this game as this will take some pressure off Rivers and allow the Chargers to control the tempo.
Getting into a shootout with the Saints can get dangerous but getting them on a short week when they have to cross the country could make it easier.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Chargers are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 home games.
- Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
- Saints are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.
- Over is 21-13-1 in Saints games since 2014.
- Over is 10-3 in Saints last 13 games against the AFC.
4* Free NFL Betting Prediction: Over 53.5
I think the Saints have a shot at stealing this one on the road as the Chargers pass rush hasn’t been great and Brees doesn’t need much time in the pocket to begin with.
However, a short week is a little concerning and gives their defense less time to regroup and prepare. The best pick here is the over as both teams have dynamic offenses with suspect defenses.
NFL Free Score Prediction: New Orleans 34 – San Diego 30
The game could start slow if both teams are looking to establish a run game early on but their tendency is to beat their opponent through the air.
I expect a high scoring display and like the Saints to keep it close and maybe get their first 2016 win on the road.
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