Free Week 5 Prediction: Patriots vs. Texans NFL Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans free NFL Week 5 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the Texans on Sunday October 10th at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New England Houston matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(1-3) New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans (1-3)
Date: Sunday, October 10th, 2021
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston TX
NFL Week 5 ATS Betting Lines: Patriots -9
NFL Week 5 Moneyline Odds: Patriots -420 | Texans +315
NFL Week 5 NFL Betting Total: 48
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Not many teams will get as much praise coming off a loss as New England has gotten this week. Make no mistake, the Patriots put up a valiant effort in a 19-17 loss to the Buccaneers on Sunday night in Tom Brady’s return to Foxborough, but this is still a 1-3 NE team.
The good news for the Patriots is that they are not up against a defending Super Bowl champion in week 5, in fact far from it against a Texans team coming back home after a 40-0 thumping in Buffalo last Sunday. The Texans lost 24-9 to Carolina in their last home game so this -9 point spread doesn’t look as bad for the Patriots.
New England Patriots
There were two big revelations for New England on Sunday night – the biggest being that Mac Jones might be legit as the man under center for the next decade. The other is that Matt Judon, aka the “dude wit the red sleeves” is the face of this defense.
Jones didn’t melt under the pressure of facing Brady at all, in fact arguably outplayed the g.o.a.t by going 31/40 for 275 yards and 2 TD. Jones got the ball with under 2 minutes left and drove the Patriots into position for a go-ahead 56-yard field that Nick Folk ultimately just missed.
The big question for Sunday is if the Patriots can get back up after such an emotional game on Sunday night? Three of the Patriots four games in 2021 have been at home, and their lone road victory was 25-6 over the Jets. Jones led the Patriots to just 260 yards of total offense in that game.
One good thing about New England’s game plan is that their defense can travel, and Judon is a star in the making with 4.5 sacks this season. If Belichick drew up a defense that made Brady go 22 of 43 without a TD pass, what can he do against Davis Mills?
If the Texans could get QB Tyrod Taylor back for this game the +9 points would look like a value, but he’s out indefinitely with a hamstring injury suffered in week 2. The safe bet is that Mills makes his 3rd career start in Sunday’s game.
Belichick is licking his chops at putting a strategy together against another rookie QB. The New England defense forced #2 pick Zach Wilson into a 19/33 day with 4 INT in New England’s week 2 win over the Jets, and coincidentally Houston QB Mills is coming off a 4 INT performance against Buffalo last week.
Houston is playing like the team a lot of people thought they would be, managing just 109 total yards last week in Buffalo. Lovie Smith’s Texans defense also allowed a 20/29, 2 TD performance to Bills QB Josh Allen and Buffalo also ran for 199 yards on 40 carries.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Patriots are 25-9 ATS vs. team with a losing record
- Patriots are 2-7 ATS last 9 as a favorite
- Patriots are 1-4 ATS last 5 road games
- UNDER is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 road games
- Texans are 1-6 ATS last 7 games in October
- UNDER is 7-3 in Texans last 10 as an underdog
4* Free Week 5 NFL Betting Prediction: UNDER 39.5
If Mills gets the start here there’s a really good chance the Texans don’t score a point. Belichick absolutely owns rookie QBs and also did a pretty good job game planning against a 7X Super Bowl champion on Sunday night as well.
It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the New England offense come out flat. They’ve only played one other road game this season and have to travel after an emotional week.
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