Free NFL Week 16 Pick: Patriots vs. Broncos Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos free NFL Week 16 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the Broncos on Sunday, December 24th at the Empower Field at Mile High. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New England Denver matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
(3-11) New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (7-7)
Date: Sunday, December 24th
Time: 8:15 ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver CO
NFL Week 16 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New England +6.5 | Denver -6.5
Week 16 NFL Moneyline Odds: New England +223 | Denver -284
NFL Betting Total: O/U 34
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The Patriots and Broncos did not have any head-to-head matchups last season.
But over the last three times playing each other, the Patriots have a record of 2-1. The Patriots also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 35 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
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New England Patriots
In the AFC-East standings, the Patriots are in 4th place with a record of 3-11. Within the AFC, New England is 16th, heading into week 16. The current scoring margin for the Patriots’ is -8.1, and this has contributed to their ATS record of 3-10-1.
The Patriots’ loss to the Chiefs is one of their worst margins of defeat in recent history.
The Patriots’ defense allowed 326 yards of total offense which included 43 yards on the ground and 283 through the air. Offensively, the Patriots finished with 206 of total offense.
Each team finished with a push against the spread, as New England was the 10 point underdog. Bailey Zappe threw for 180 yards while completing 74% of his passes and throwing for 180. Zappe threw for one touchdown.
New England Patriots Stats
Against the Chiefs, the Patriots ran the ball 16 times, with Kevin Harris leading the team with 25 yards. Zappe threw the ball 31 times for 180 yards and a passer rating of 85.
Regarding their offense, the Patriots have an average 13.3 points per game, which places them 29th in the NFL.
In terms of yards allowed, the Patriots are 8th in the league while giving up 308.3 yards per contest. New England’s defense has allowed 21.4 points per game, placing them 15th in the NFL.
Denver Broncos
So far this season, the Broncos are 7-7 overall which has the team placed 2nd in the AFC-West. This record has come while going 3-4 as the underdog and 4-3 when favored. Denver’s scoring margin up to this point is currently at -3.4. The team comes in with an ATS mark of 5-8-1.
The Broncos were unable to overcome a bad first half in which they trailed by 21 and ended up losing to the Lions.
Overall, the Broncos put up 287 yards of offense while allowing 448. The Lions finished the game going 5/10 on 3rd down. Denver’s 25 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 5.5 point underdogs. Quarterback Russell Wilson threw for one touchdown and ran for 1 score.
Wilson completed 56% of his passes for 223 yards.
Denver Broncos Stats
Against the Lions, the Broncos ran the ball 28 times, with Samaje Perine leading the team with 37 yards. Wilson threw the ball 32 times for 223 yards and a passer rating of 88.
Denver’s offense is 14th in the league, with an average of 21.7 points per contest.
The Broncos are 30th in the league in terms of yards allowed, giving up 382.4 yards per contest. Denver’s defense comes in with an average of 25.1 points per game allowed, which is 28th in the NFL.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 1-3-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Broncos are 2-2-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Patriots are 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Broncos have gone 4-5-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Patriots’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Broncos’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Patriots vs. Broncos Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Patriots | +198 | +224 | +5.5 | +6.5 |
Broncos | -240 | -285 | -5.5 | -6.5 |
4* Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: New England +6.5
On the spread, I’m taking New England at +6.5. I’m expecting the New England rushing attack to take advantage of a Denver defense that struggled to defend the run in their most recent game. Lock in New England +6.5.
Not only does our model have a projected total of 41 points in this matchup, but the eye test has me feeling this line of 34 is low. I like New England and Denver to exceed 34 points.
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New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
#BroncosCountry LIVE: HC Sean Payton meets the media https://t.co/TvNRc3N0XM
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 22, 2023
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