Free NFL Week 17 Pick: Patriots vs. Bills Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL Week 17 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the Bills on Sunday, December 31st at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 17 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New England Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 17
(4-11) New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (9-6)
Date: Sunday, December 31st
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL Week 17 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New England +12 | Buffalo -12
Week 17 NFL Moneyline Odds: New England +482 | Buffalo -733
NFL Betting Total: O/U 41
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I know what you’re thinking. How does a 4-11 Patriots team knock off a 9-6 Bills team, in Week 17. Easy answer. They don’t. Read on to find out why!
The Patriots came out on top with a 29-25 win in their initial matchup against Bills on 10/22/23. Coming into the game, the Patriots were the underdogs at +7.5 and picked up an ATS win.
Josh Allen finished that first one with 27/41 265 2 TD & 1 INT. Mac Jones went 25/30 for 272, with 2 TD’s and 0 INT.
Before the game, the over/under line was set at 41 points, a mark that the teams exceeded. That was then, this is now.
These two over the years have faced off 128 times, which includes 2 postseason games. The Patriots have come out victorious 78 times, while the Bills have claimed 49 wins, with 1 game ending in a tie.
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New England Patriots
The Patriots’ week 17 matchup vs. Buffalo will be their 8th road game of the season. On the road, they have gone 3-4 and are 4-11 overall. In the AFC-East, New England is 4th and 16th in the AFC.
The Patriots’ current scoring margin for the season stands at -7.3, contributing to their ATS record of 4-10-1.
On offense, the Patriots racked up 289 yards in their 26-23 win over the Broncos. For the game, the Patriots ran for 59 yards on an average of 2.8 yards per attempt.
Defensively, they allowed 276 yards of total offense with 193 yards coming through the air and 83 on the ground. New England went into the game as the underdog (+7), giving them a straight-up and ATS win.
Bailey Zappe threw for 256 yards while completing 75% of his passes and throwing for 256. Zappe threw for two touchdowns.
New England Patriots Stats
On offense, the Patriots finished with 289 yards against the Broncos. When it came to third downs, the Patriots had a 23.1% conversion rate.
Leading the ground game was Ezekiel Elliott with 27 yards, and Zappe contributed 256 passing yards.
New England’s offense comes in the game as the 29th in scoring at 14.1 PPG. In the first half, the Patriots have struggled with an average of 6.0 points.
So far the Patriots’ defense has given up an average of 306.1 yards per game and 21.5 points per contest (16th).
Coming into the game, they have allowed a completion percentage allowed of 66.1% and have given up 19 passing touchdowns. Against the run, they are 2nd in the NFL.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills’ week 17 matchup vs. New England will be their 9th home game of the season. On the road, they have gone 6-2 and are 9-6 overall.
In the AFC-East, Buffalo is 2nd and 6th in the AFC. The Bills’ current scoring margin stands at +8.5, which has them coming in with a 6-9 ATS record.
The Bills were able to recover from being held scoreless in the first quarter to still pick up the win. For the game, the Bills converted 50% of their third downs, and finished with 335 yards of total offense. On the other side, the Chargers ended the game with 273 yards of offense.
Even though Buffalo won straight-up, they did not cover the spread as 12.5 point favorites. Quarterback Josh Allen threw for one touchdown and ran for 2 scores.
Allen completed 71% of his passes for 237 yards.
Buffalo Bills Stats
The Bills’ offense produced a total of 335 yards against the Chargers. On third downs, the Bills achieved a conversion rate of 50%. Notably, James Cook led the rushing attack with 70 yards, while Allen passed for 237 yards.
This season, the Buffalo offense has an average of 26.9 points, placing them 6th in the league.
On the defensive front, the Bills currently hold the 11th position in tackles for loss and rank 3rd in sacks.
Opponents are averaging 18.4 points and 310.2 yards per game against them.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 2-2-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Patriots are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Patriots’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Patriots vs. Bills Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Patriots | +455 | +482 | +12 | +12 |
Bills | -620 | -733 | -12 | -12 |
4* Free Week 17 NFL Betting Prediction: New England +12
The Bills face a make-or-break moment as their season teeters on the edge. Despite a 4-1 record in their last five games, securing their fifth consecutive NFL postseason appearance is far from certain, bottom line, they have to win in Week 17.
On the flip side, the Patriots are soaring, clinching a thrilling 26-23 victory against the Broncos with Ryland’s 56-yard game-winning field goal.
They seem to be hitting their stride, thanks in part to Bailey Zappe stepping in for Mac Jones. While their long-term QB prospects are uncertain, that answer won’t come this week.
New England’s pass defense was able to contain Denver’s passing attack in their recent game. Even as 12-point underdogs on the Buffalo turf, I believe they have what it takes to cover.
For a total, I’m going with the over as my pick, considering the over/under line at 41.
Thus far, games featuring Buffalo have averaged a combined score of 45.3 points, and I anticipate this game will go beyond 41. That’s my big play on this game. I like it more than the spread.
The Pats are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games when playing on the road against Buffalo, they’ll be competitive in this one, plus the total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games against the Pats.
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Patriots Bills NFL Handicapping
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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Having fun with it. 💯@Gatorade | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/9X15jhM2dm
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 28, 2023
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