Free NFL Week 18 Pick: Dolphins vs. Jets Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Jets on Sunday, January 5th at the MetLife Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 18 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami New York matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 18
(8-8) Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets (4-12)
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Miami -1 | New York +1
NFL Moneyline Odds: Miami -117 | New York -104
NFL Betting Total: O/U 39
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It’s Week 18, and the stakes couldn’t be higher as the Dolphins and Jets renew their storied rivalry at MetLife Stadium. Miami leads the all-time series 61-56-1, including a nail-biting 32-26 win earlier this season.
The Dolphins sit at 8-8 and must win—and hope for a Denver loss—to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Jets, at 4-12, are out of contention but can still play spoiler in front of their home crowd.
Over the last three times playing each other, the Dolphins have a record of 3-0. The Dolphins also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 45 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
With Miami favored by just a single point, oddsmakers are calling this one razor-thin, but the real action might lie in the total set at 39.
Miami Dolphins
Heading into week 18, the Dolphins are riding a two-game winning streak, which includes a 29-17 victory over the 49ers in week 16 and a 20-3 win over the Browns in week 17. This puts Miami at 8-8, with a 3-2 record in the AFC East and a 6-5 record in the conference.
They currently sit 2nd in the division and 8th in the AFC.
According to our projections, the Dolphins have a 25.5% chance of making the playoffs. In our power rankings, they are 12th. Miami has an average scoring margin of -0.4 points per game and is 7-9 against the spread.
Their O/U record is also 7-9, with their games averaging 41.1 points compared to an average line of 44.3.
Miami Dolphins Stats
Heading into week 18, the Dolphins are 16th in our offensive power rankings. They are 21st in the NFL in points per game (20.3) and 18th in yards per game (324.9). Miami ranks 15th in passing yards per game (221.1) and 24th in rushing yards per game (103.8). They are 19th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage, with a 37% success rate.
In week 17, Tyler Huntley threw for 225 yards (22/26) and a touchdown, posting a passer rating of 115. Tyreek Hill had 9 catches for 105 yards, while Huntley also led the team in rushing with 52 yards on 7 carries.
Miami scored 3 points in the 1st quarter, 3 in the 2nd, 7 in the 3rd, and 7 in the 4th.
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In their 20-3 win over the Browns, the Dolphins’ defense allowed just 3 points. They held Cleveland to 114 yards rushing on 28 attempts and limited them to 162 passing yards. The Dolphins defended the pass well, giving up just 3.4 yards per attempt and allowing only one sack.
Miami’s defense forced one interception and held the Browns to a 41.2% conversion rate on third down.
Despite struggling in the run game, with a -8 tackles for loss differential, they were able to keep the Browns out of the endzone and come away with a comfortable win.
New York Jets
Heading into week 18, the Jets sit at 4-12 and are on a two-game losing streak, including a 40-14 loss to the Bills in week 17. New York was a 10.5-point underdog in that game, and the 54 combined points went over the 44.5-point line.
The Jets are now 21st in our power rankings, and they have been eliminated from playoff contention.
Against the spread, the Jets are 5-11, with a -4.9 average scoring margin.
They have a 1-5 ATS record as underdogs and are 4-6 as favorites. Their O/U record is 9-6-1, with their games averaging 43.1 points compared to a 42.5-point line.
New York Jets Stats
Heading into week 18, the Jets rank 17th in our offensive power rankings.
They are 23rd in the NFL in points per game (19.1) and 24th in yards per game (306.2). New York is 6th in passing attempts per game, with 35.6, and 17th in passing yards, averaging 216.1 per game. On the ground, they rank 31st in rushing yards per game, with 90.2, on 21.3 attempts per game, which ranks 26th in the league.
The Jets are 14th in 3rd-down conversion rate, converting 39.4% of their attempts.
Aaron Rodgers struggled in week 17, posting a passer rating of 43 after throwing for 112 yards and 2 interceptions in the Jets’ loss to the Bills. New York’s offense was shut out until the 4th quarter, when they scored 14 points.
Breece Hall led the team with 45 rushing yards on 10 carries, and Garrett Wilson had 7 receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown.
In their 40-14 loss to the Bills, the Jets’ defense gave up 251 yards through the air, with Buffalo completing three touchdown passes and averaging 9 yards per attempt.
The Jets struggled to generate pressure, finishing with no sacks and losing both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials by -4.
On the ground, the Jets fared better, allowing just 97 yards on 34 attempts (2.9 yards per attempt). However, the defense struggled on third downs, allowing the Bills to convert 57.1% of their third down attempts.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Dolphins are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Jets have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Dolphins’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Jets’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Dolphins vs. Jets Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +102 | -116 | +1.5 | -1 |
| Jets | -122 | -104 | -1.5 | +1 |
4* Free Week 18 NFL Betting Prediction: Jets ATS
For this week 18 matchup between the Dolphins and Jets, we have the Jets coming out on top by a score of 27-23. With the point spread being as close as it is, at just -1 in favor of the Dolphins, we like the the home dog to bark on Sunday.
Miami, meanwhile, faces a major question mark at QB with Huntley stepping in. That uncertainty might scare off moneyline bettors, but it only adds fuel to the over trend as mistakes and big plays could pile up.
As for an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 50, and the line sitting at just 39.
Both teams have been trending toward high-scoring affairs. The Jets have hit the over in five of their last six games and four of their last six against Miami.
Even more telling, the total has gone over in seven of their last eight games against AFC opponents.
Expect fireworks in this high-stakes divisional clash. Points will be scored, rivalries will reignite, and the playoff drama will unfold!
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Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
one last ride tomorrow pic.twitter.com/NA9ir6vsKM
— New York Jets (@nyjets) January 4, 2025
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