Free NFL Pick: Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Raiders taking on the Chiefs on 10/19 at Arrowhead Stadium, in Kansas City. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NFL football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NFL predictions like this Raiders Chiefs free pick.
2025 NFL Handicapping – Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
(2-4) Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)
Date: Oct 19, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
NFL Moneyline Odds: Raiders +543 | Chiefs -777 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Raiders +12 | Chiefs -12
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 45.5
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Raiders vs. Chiefs Gameday
The Las Vegas Raiders roll into Arrowhead Stadium at 2-4, trying to build off a much-needed win over the Tennessee Titans. That victory snapped a brutal three-game skid, but their 1-2 road record shows how inconsistent this team has been away from home.
Geno Smith has kept them competitive, yet turnovers continue to haunt him.
Kansas City Chiefs sit at 3-3, looking to find their footing after an uneven start. They’ve been solid at Arrowhead (2-1), recently taking care of business against the Detroit Lions.
The reigning AFC West kings have dominated this rivalry in recent years, including a tight 19-17 win the last time these two met in Kansas City.
Conditions look perfect for football — clear skies and mild temps. Expect the Arrowhead faithful to make life miserable for the visiting Raiders. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET on CBS, and it should be loud enough to rattle windows in downtown Kansas City.
Week 7, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs — this one’s all about pride, pressure, and proving who still runs the West.
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Last 5
The sportsbooks aren’t shy here — Kansas City is a heavy favorite. The Chiefs sit at -779 on the moneyline, with the Raiders listed at +543. The spread is a steep -11.5 for the Chiefs, suggesting oddsmakers expect a one-sided affair.
The Raiders finally showed some life in their 20-13 win over Tennessee, balancing the offense for once. But their previous road trip was a nightmare, losing 40-6 to the Colts. KC, meanwhile, continues to steady the ship after that 30-17 win against Detroit.
Recent history leans red and gold. The Chiefs have taken the last three matchups at Arrowhead, including that 19-17 nail-biter in 2024.
The Raiders always seem to hang around — but closing the deal is another story.
Chiefs Stats
Patrick Mahomes and company reminded everyone they’re still dangerous after putting up 30 points on the Lions. Mahomes threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns, dissecting the defense with his usual precision.
Kansas City ranks first in the league in passing touchdowns (11) and fourth in opponent scoring, allowing just 326 total points. That balance is what keeps them elite — even during “down years.”
Travis Kelce continues to lead all tight ends with 321 receiving yards, while Marquise Brown has found chemistry with Mahomes, notching 302 yards to pace the wideouts. Expect those two to test the Raiders’ secondary early and often.
Defensively, linebacker Nick Bolton has been a tackling machine, while Charles Omenihu has turned up the heat on opposing quarterbacks.
Together, they’ve helped KC’s front seven return to form.
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Raiders Stats
Las Vegas snapped its losing streak in Week 6 with a gutsy 20-13 win over Tennessee. Geno Smith threw for 174 yards and a touchdown, while Ashton Jeanty added 75 yards and a score on the ground. It wasn’t flashy, but it was functional — and that’s progress.
Still, the road has been unkind. Blowout losses to the Colts and Bears exposed both their offensive line and secondary. Smith has been erratic — ranking 11th in the league with 1,350 passing yards but also throwing 10 interceptions, tied for the most in the NFL.
Defensively, Maxx Crosby continues to be the Raiders’ heartbeat, posting two sacks last week and ranking top-10 league-wide in pressures.
Las Vegas sits 11th in team sacks but has still allowed over 5,600 opponent yards — a troubling number against a team like Kansas City.
The Raiders will need near-perfect execution from Jeanty and speedster Tre Tucker to hang around. Injuries to key starters like Kolton Miller and Lonnie Johnson Jr. could make that a tall order.
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Raiders vs. Chiefs QB Matchup
Patrick Mahomes continues to operate at a high level. Through six games, he’s thrown for 1,514 yards (6th in the NFL) with 11 touchdowns and just two picks.
He’s projected for 246 yards and roughly two scores this week.
Add in his underrated mobility — averaging 37 rushing yards per game — and he’s as dangerous as ever.
On the other side, Geno Smith remains a mixed bag. His 1,350 passing yards and seven touchdowns show his arm talent, but those 10 interceptions are killers. He’s projected for around 218 yards and one touchdown against a tough Chiefs defense.
If Smith can limit mistakes and the Raiders can get their run game going early, they might keep this close. But if Mahomes finds rhythm, Arrowhead could get loud early and stay that way.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs bottom line: This rivalry always brings fireworks, but the gap in talent is still clear. The Chiefs’ home edge, depth, and Mahomes should be too much for Vegas
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Football Betting Trends
- The Raiders are 2-2 against the spread in their last 4 away games.
- The Raiders have a 3-3 record against the spread after a loss in their last 6.
- Also, the Raiders have gone under the total in 5 of their last 11 games as underdogs.
- The Chiefs are 9-2 against the spread as favorites in their last 11.
- Additionally, the Chiefs have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 home games.
- The Chiefs have gone over the total in 2 of their last 3 games after a win.
Raiders vs Chiefs Prediction: Under 45.5
Here is my Raiders Chiefs free pick. The Las Vegas Raiders have consistently leaned toward the under in recent matchups, particularly when entering as underdogs.
In fact, the total has gone under in nine of their last twelve games overall, and five of their last six on the road — both trends that strongly suggest a lower-scoring battle could unfold at Arrowhead Stadium.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs have hit the over in two of their last three games after a win, yet October hasn’t been a high-scoring month for them historically.
The total has gone under in seven of Kansas City’s last nine games played in October, a pattern that hints their midseason contests tend to tighten up.
Defensively, the Raiders have quietly improved, and their ability to contain Patrick Mahomes in stretches of recent meetings supports another potential under outcome. The outdoor conditions and cooler October temperatures in Kansas City could further slow down offensive rhythm for both sides.
All signs point to a disciplined, defensive battle — making the under 45.5 the sharp play in this AFC West clash.
Ultimately, with both teams trending toward low-scoring outcomes and weather favoring defensive football, this matchup sets up perfectly for a total that stays low.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Patrick recorded his 27th career game with 3+ TDs and zero INTs… the most games for any player since 2018 🤯
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 15, 2025
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