
Free NFL Week 15 Pick: Chiefs vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots free NFL Week 15 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Patriots on Sunday, December 17th at the Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 15 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Kansas City New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 15
(8-5) Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots (3-10)
Date: Sunday, December 17th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
NFL Week 15 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kansas City -9.5 | New England +9.5
Week 15 NFL Moneyline Odds: Kansas City -494 | New England +371
NFL Betting Total: O/U 37.5
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The Chiefs and Patriots did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. Kansas City maintains a 20-16-3 advantage in the overall head-to-head record against New England.
However, when playing in New England, the Chiefs’ performance dips with a record of 8-11-2, which includes a 2-4 record at Gillette Stadium (2-5 if you include playoff games).
Over the last three times playing each other, the Chiefs have a record of 2-1. The Chiefs also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 47 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
The last time these two met was 10/5/2020 a 26-10 Chiefs win at Arrowhead. Mahomes took on the dynamic passing duo of the Patriots led by Brian Hoyer 15/24 130 YDS 1 INT, and Jarrett Stidham 5/13 60 YDS 1 TD, 2 INT’s.
The Chiefs are hitting the road, and it remains to be seen how Mahomes handles the situation (Will he leave his new found temper at home?) Their season is currently at a critical juncture. Following last week’s performance, they could either come back with a strong, motivated game to get back on track and silence their critics, or their young wide receivers might fall apart at the seams.
The Patriots, on the other hand, would relish the opportunity to disrupt things in what appears to be the final matchup between the Pats and the Chiefs with Belichick facing off against Reid.
Oh, and who the hell is Bailey Zappe?
Offensive Stats
| Stat | KC | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 22.5 (11th) | 13 (29th) |
| Yards Per Game | 361.3 (7th) | 291.4 (28th) |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 107.8 (17th) | 101.9 (22nd) |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 253.5 (6th) | 189.5 (25th) |
| Third Down Conversion Percentage | 47.2% (5th) | 32.9% (26th) |
| Red Zone Conversion Percentage | 8.3% (23rd) | 61.5% (2nd) |
Defensive Stats
| Stat | KC | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game Allowed | 17.5 (3rd) | 20.9 (14th) |
| Yards Per Game Allowed | 299.9 (6th) | 306.9 (8th) |
| Rushing Yards Per Game Allowed | 114.9 (20th) | 88.2 (3rd) |
| Passing Yards Per Game Allowed | 185.0 (6th) | 218.8 (15th) |
| Turnovers Forced | 15 (9th) | 12 (12th) |
| Sacks | 42 (3rd) | 26 (17th) |
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Kansas City Chiefs
So far this season, the Chiefs are 8-5 overall which has the team placed 1st in the AFC-West.
This record has come while going 1-0 as the underdog and 7-5 when favored. The Chiefs have put together an above .500 record versus the spread this season, currently at 7-6.
The Chiefs were unable to overcome being held scoreless in the first quarter against the Bills and lost by a score of 20-17. Defensively, they allowed they gave up 327 yards and allowed the Bills to convert 50% of their 3rd downs.
On offense, the Chiefs finished with 346 yards went 6/12 on third down. Kansas City also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 1.5 point favorites. Patrick Mahomes threw for 271 yards while completing 58% of his passes and throwing for 271.
Mahomes threw for one touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Kansas City’s offense produced a total of 346 yards against the Bills. When it came to third downs, the Chiefs had a conversion rate of 50%.
The leading rusher for the Chiefs was Clyde Edwards-Helaire with 39 yards, and Mahomes contributed 271 passing yards.
Offensively, the Chiefs have an average of 22.5 points per game, which is 11th in the NFL.
The Chiefs defense takes on the Patriots having given up an average of 17.5 points per game. So far, they are 5th in quarterback hits and are giving up 299.9 yards per contest.
New England Patriots
Looking at the AFC-East standings, the Patriots are in 4th place on a record of 3-10. In the AFC, New England is in 16th place heading into week 15. In terms of the spread, the Patriots hold a record of 3-10.
This has come on an average scoring margin of -7.9.
The Patriots escaped with the win over the Steelers, despite letting Pittsburgh cut into their lead as they were winning by 11 heading into the 4th quarter.
In the game, the Patriots finished with 303 yards of offense compared to 264 for the Steelers. In the running game, the Patriots averaged 3.2 yards per attempt for 81 while the Steelers ran for 81 yards.
New England went into the game as the underdog (+5), giving them a straight-up and ATS win. Bailey Zappe threw for 240 yards while completing 67% of his passes and throwing for 240.
Zappe threw for three touchdowns.
New England Patriots Stats
Facing the Steelers defense, New England’s offense amassed 303 yards in total. On third downs, the Patriots converted at a rate of 30.8%.
Ezekiel Elliott led the rushing game with 68 yards, while Zappe threw for 240 yards.
Offensively, the Patriots have an average of 13 points per game, which positions them 29th in the NFL.
Defensively, New England is 14th in the NFL in points allowed. Their opponents have an average of 20.9 points per game while gaining 306.9 yards per contest.
This week, the Patriots have a simple goal: securing a victory. With their current record at 3-10, even finishing the season at 7-10 would be considered disappointing. But one game at a time right?
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 1-4 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Patriots are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Chiefs are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Patriots have gone 3-7 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Patriots’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -537 | -494 | -10 | -9.5 |
| Patriots | +405 | +371 | +10 | +9.5 |
4* Free Week 15 NFL Betting Prediction: New England +9.5
Is there drama in New England?
NBC Sports Boston reported Monday that Patriots owner Robert Kraft plans to part ways with Belichick at the conclusion of the season.
So I’m not clear and what version of the Pats we’ll get this week, but just because of that, and because this is the NFL, I’ll bite, and play on the Pats ATS.
New England’s pass defense was able to contain Pittsburgh’s passing attack in their recent game.
If you want to know about Week 15 betting trends for the Chiefs vs. Patriots game, I’ve got you covered. Kansas City hasn’t been doing great lately, with a 2-4 ATS record in their last 6 games, and they’ve only won 2 out of their last 9 road games against New England.
Also, they’re 1-4 ATS in December games.
Even as 9.5-point underdogs on their home turf, I believe they have what it takes to cover against Kansas City.
After crunching the numbers, our model is pointing to this game finishing with a combined 35 points.
This projection has me feeling good about taking the UNDER 37.5.
In 7 out of the last 9 Chiefs games, the total points scored have gone UNDER. It’s a similar story with New England, where 4 out of their last 5 games have seen the total points go UNDER.
Plus, the Under is 5-0 in the Pats’ last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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Chiefs Patriots NFL Handicapping
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
What the Chiefs are saying ahead of Week 15: https://t.co/pthuuGF0Dj pic.twitter.com/IEyU9sZLnf
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 14, 2023
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