Free NFL Week 13 Pick: Chiefs vs. Packers Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers free NFL Week 13 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Packers on Sunday, December 3rd at the Lambeau Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Kansas City Green Bay matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
(8-3) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers (5-6)
Sunday Night Football on NBC
Date: Sunday, December 3rd
Time: 8:20 ET
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay WI
NFL Week 13 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kansas City -6.5 | Green Bay +6.5
Week 13 NFL Moneyline Odds: Kansas City -300 | Green Bay +235
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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Last season, the Chiefs and Packers did not face off head-to-head. But, the Packers and Chiefs have faced off 14 times, counting 1 playoff game. Green Bay has won 5, while Kansas City has taken down the Packers in 8, plus they tied once.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Packers have the leg up at 2-1. The Packers also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 46 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
KC is 4-1 on the road. The Packers are 3-2 at home this season.
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Kansas City Chiefs
This week will be the Chiefs’ 6th game on the road, where they have yet to lose (4-1). Their overall mark of 8-3 has them 1st in the AFC-West. In the AFC, they are in 2nd place.
The Chiefs have put together an above .500 record versus the spread this season, currently at 7-4. Their average scoring margin for this season is +6.8.
The Chiefs’ 14-point win over the Raiders was one of their largest margins of victory in recent history. Offensively, the Chiefs averaged 6 yards per play for a total of 360 yards.
On the other end, the Raiders went 7/14 on 3rd down and finished with 358 yards. Going into the game, Kansas City was favored by 9 and went on to cover the spread.
Last week, Rashee Rice and Justin Watson notched one touchdown reception apiece.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 298 yards while completing 79% of his passes and throwing for 298. Mahomes threw for two touchdowns.
Taylor Swift’s boyfriend… Travis Kelce has at least six catches in 8 of his last 9 matchups.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Kansas City’s offense generated 360 total yards against the Raiders. On third downs, the Chiefs managed a conversion rate of 45.5%. Isiah Pacheco led the team in rushing with 55 yards, while Mahomes passed for 298 yards.
Overall, the Chiefs offense is averaging 23.3 points per game which is 9th in the NFL. In terms of scoring on the road, the Chiefs are averaging 21.4 points per contest.
Thus far, the Chiefs’ defense has given up an average of 290.0 yards per game and 16.5 points per contest (3rd). Going into this game, they’ve allowed a completion percentage of 61.6% and have surrendered 13 passing touchdowns.
When it comes to run defense, they rank 19th in the NFL.
Green Bay Packers
Taking on the Chiefs, the Packers will look to improve on their record of 5-6. This mark has them in 3rd in the NFC-North and 8th in the NFC. The Packers’ current scoring margin stands at +0.6, which has them coming in with a 6-5 ATS record.
Even though, the Packers’ offense picked up a below-average number of first-downs, they still went on to beat the Lions. The Packers finished with 377 yards of total offense compared to 464 for the Lions.
The Lions averaged 7.4 yards per passing attempt and 4.5 yards per rush.
Green Bay went into the game as the underdog (+8.5), giving them a straight-up and ATS win.
Jordan Love threw for 268 yards while completing 68% of his passes and throwing for 268. Love threw for three touchdowns. His main weapon. Wideout Christian Watson, who has now caught a touchdown pass in back-to-back games.
Green Bay Packers Stats
On offense, Love ended with 268 passing yards on a completion rate of 68%. On the ground, the Packers ran the ball 22 times, amassing 109 yards. The team converted 5 third-downs at a rate of 45.5%.
Green Bay’s offense is 15th in the league, with an average of 21 points per contest.
The Green Bay defense has recorded 12 takeaways this season, which places them 11th in the NFL. In terms of points allowed, their average of 20.4 is 10th in the league while giving up 340.3 yards per contest.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Packers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Chiefs are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Packers have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Packers’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Chiefs vs. Packers Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | -320 | -300 | -7 | -6.5 |
Packers | +260 | +235 | +7 | +6.5 |
4* Free Week 13 NFL Betting Prediction: Green Bay +6.5
It’s a FACT: Love made his NFL starting debut on November 7, 2021, vs. the Chiefs. He had a 69.5 passer rating, passed for 190 yards, scoring one touchdown, but also throwing one interception in a 13-7 loss to Kansas City. A night I’m sure he’ll never forget. (Even in a loss)
This week, he gets to enact some revenge.
For this Chiefs vs. Packers matchup, we see there being good value on grabbing a Packers team that is coming off both a straight-up and and ATS win. They looked like a different team against the Lions on Thanksgiving, and now with 10 days rest I’m sure they have as good a game plan as possible to tackle the high flying Chiefs.
Don’t count out the Packers pass rush in this one. They can, and will get after it. Look for the Packers to continue this momentum, making them a good pick at +6.5.
On the over/under, I have the best bet being to take the over at 42.5.
This looks like a slam dunk bet for me, as my gut tells me the over will hit as well as our model projecting a combined 47 points.
I found some interesting NFL gambling trends for the Packers and the Chiefs from past seasons. Green Bay has a perfect 10-0 record in December games and an 8-4 record when playing on Sundays. On the other hand, Kansas City has struggled with a 1-4 record against the Packers.
When these two teams face off, the total points scored tend to go over in 6 out of 8 games for Green Bay and 5 out of 7 games for Kansas City in December.
I hope you find these insights helpful for NFL gambling. Be sure to check out our other NFL betting previews for this week.
I’m sure the Packers would love to give Andy Reid a nice welcome back present! (Favre and the Packers won the 96 Super Bowl with Andy on the staff. (Under Mike Holmgren)
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
.@RashanAGary is the first #Packers player to have three sacks & two forced fumbles in the same game since Aaron Kampman vs. New Orleans on Sept. 17, 2006.#GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/7k1dYrIQ5x
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 1, 2023
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