Free NFL Week 18 Pick: Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Broncos on Sunday, January 5th at the Empower Field at Mile High. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 18 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Kansas City Denver matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 18
(15-1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (9-7)
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver CO
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kansas City +10.5 | Denver -10.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Kansas City +412 | Denver -578
NFL Betting Total: O/U 39.5
- Live Betting Odds for the upcoming Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Week 18 game!
- Want more NFL football regular season predictions like this Chiefs Broncos play? Check out our free NFL Week 18 AI Picks for today!
- View our Updated Sportsbook Bonuses for today!
It’s Week 18, and the stakes couldn’t be higher as the Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs in a clash with massive playoff implications.
Denver, sitting at 9-7, is battling for a postseason berth, while Kansas City has already locked up the top seed and is resting its starters.
With the Chiefs at 15-1, this matchup might seem lopsided at first glance, but dig a little deeper, and the dynamics shift dramatically. Over the last three times playing each other, the Chiefs have a record of 2-1.
However, against the spread the Broncos went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 0-3 on an average of 29 points per game.
Kansas City’s recent trends against the spread (3-7 ATS in their last 10 and 1-5 ATS against Denver) leave little to be desired, especially with backup quarterback Carson Wentz at the helm.
Kansas City Chiefs
Heading into week 18, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC with a 15-1 record, including a 6-game winning streak. After a narrow 2-point win over the Chargers in week 14, Kansas City bounced back with more comfortable victories over the Browns (21-7), Texans (27-19), and Steelers (29-10).
Against Pittsburgh, they covered the 1.5-point spread, improving their ATS record to 7-8-1.
Our power rankings have the Chiefs 2nd in the NFL, and they’ve already clinched the AFC West and a playoff spot. Their average scoring margin is +6.1 points per game, and their O/U record is 7-9 this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Heading into week 18, the Chiefs are 9th in our offensive power rankings. They are 11th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 24.1 points per game, and 13th in yards per game with 342. Kansas City ranks 10th in passing yards per game (231.8) and 16th in rushing yards per game (110.2).
Despite being 24th in red zone conversion percentage, they rank 4th in red zone attempts and lead the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 50% success rate.
Patrick Mahomes has been on fire, throwing for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 17 without an interception. He posted a passer rating of 127, completing 29 of 38 passes.
Travis Kelce led the team with 8 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, while Kareem Hunt had 9 carries for 20 yards and a touchdown.
Expert NFL Betting Picks
Looking for more NFL betting picks? Check out today’s featured premium plays from CappersPicks handicappers, including sides, totals, and weekly NFL betting packages.
In their 29-10 win over the Steelers, the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 162 passing yards and forced one interception. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 202 yards on the ground on 31 attempts.
Despite this, they held Pittsburgh to just 10 points and limited their big plays in the passing game.
The Chiefs’ defense recorded five sacks in the game and had a positive differential in quarterback hits and tackles for loss. They also held the Steelers to a 37.8% third-down conversion rate, although Pittsburgh did have some success running the ball, averaging 6.5 yards per attempt.
Denver Broncos
Heading into week 18, the Broncos are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 30-24 loss to the Bengals in week 17. This dropped Denver to 9-7 on the season, leaving them 3rd in the AFC West and 7th in the conference.
They have a 64.5% chance of making the playoffs, but their division hopes are officially over.
Denver is 11-5 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +4.8 points per game. They are 7-0 ATS as favorites and 4-5 as underdogs.
Their O/U record is also 11-5, with the over hitting in each of their last five games.
Denver Broncos Stats
Heading into week 18, the Broncos rank 19th in our offensive power rankings. They are 10th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24.2, but sit 22nd in passing yards per game with 205.6, despite being 11th in pass attempts.
Denver is also 17th in rushing yards per game, averaging 109.4. On third down, they are 17th in the league, converting 37.5% of their attempts, and they rank 20th in red zone conversion percentage.
In week 17, Bo Nix threw for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 interception, against the Bengals. Marvin Mims Jr. led the team with 8 catches for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jaleel McLaughlin had 69 rushing yards on 10 carries. Denver scored 14 points in the 4th quarter, finishing with 24 points in the loss.
In their 30-24 overtime loss to the Bengals, the Broncos’ defense gave up 384 passing yards on 79.6% completions. They did, however, come away with 7 sacks and held Cincinnati to 115 rushing yards on 28 attempts.
Despite their strong pass rush, the Broncos allowed the Bengals to convert on 53.8% of their third downs.
The Broncos’ defense struggled to defend the big play, as the Bengals averaged 7.8 yards per passing attempt and had three passing touchdowns. Denver’s offense put up 499 yards in the game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Chiefs are 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Broncos have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Broncos’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -192 | +412 | -4 | +10.5 |
| Broncos | +160 | -578 | +4 | -10.5 |
4* Free Week 18 NFL Betting Prediction: Denver -10.5
The Broncos are looking pretty good vs. the spread, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 and 5-1 ATS at home in their last six. Denver’s defense and ground game will look to exploit a Kansas City squad lacking its usual firepower.
This rivalry is rich with history, but the storyline here is Denver’s urgency versus Kansas City’s luxury of rest.
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Broncos to cover as home favorites in this week 18 matchup.
Despite the Chiefs being 10.5-point underdogs, we have the Broncos winning by a score of 30-17.
As for the over/under line, we have a pick for this game to go over the line of 39.5 points, with a projected combined score of 47 points.
Expect the Broncos to bring energy and aggression to Mile High, fueled by a do-or-die mentality in front of a home crowd that smells the playoffs.
Buckle up for a wild finale!
Best Sportsbooks For Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos NFL Gambling Today!
- 50% Reload Bonuses
- Daily Player Promos
- Live Dealer Casino
- Crypto Deposits
- Same-Game Parlays
- Casino + Poker
- Same-Game Parlays
- Overnight Lines
- Progressive Jackpots
- Reduced-Juice Lines
- 7% Racebook Rebate
- 100% Crypto Bonus
- VIP Cash Rewards
- Live Betting & Props
- High Betting Limits
In Canada? Try Bodog!
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
It’s perfect. 🤩 pic.twitter.com/5J2dPNUuEG
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) January 4, 2025
If you’re looking for more NFL picks like this Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos matchup we’ll be providing 4* free NFL predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free NFL Football picks!
Register here for a FREE NFL Football Betting Account Now for Daily Free Picks & More Special NFL Regular Season Offers!
