Free NFL Pick: Chiefs vs. Cowboys Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Cowboys on 11/27 at AT&T Stadium, in Dallas. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NFL football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NFL predictions like this Chiefs Cowboys free pick for Thanksgiving Day.
2025 NFL Handicapping – Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys
Thanksgiving Day NFL Football 2025
(6-5) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-5)
Date: Nov 27, 2025
Time: 4:30 PM ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX
NFL Moneyline Odds: Chiefs -180 | Cowboys +151 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Chiefs -3.0 | Cowboys +3.0
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 52.5
Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Chiefs Cowboys free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Chiefs vs. Cowboys Gameday
In Week 13, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to AT&T Stadium to face the Dallas Cowboys. (Happy Thanksgiving!) The game kicks off at 3:30 PM and will be broadcast on ESPN. Both teams come into this matchup with something to prove as they battle for playoff positioning.
Kansas City enters with a 6-5 record, struggling on the road with just one win in five tries.
Despite a solid offensive showing from Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, they’ve been inconsistent away from home, which has hurt their playoff hopes.
Dallas, sitting at 5-5-1, has looked much stronger at home. They’ve won three of four at AT&T Stadium, and they’re coming off a narrow 24-21 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, showing resilience despite recent struggles.
Historically, Dallas has had the upper hand in this matchup, with their last win over Kansas City at home back in 2017, when they secured a 28-17 victory.
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It’s Week 13, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys, and both teams are gearing up for what should be an exciting showdown.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds & Last 5
Kansas City is slightly favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -178, while Dallas sits at +150. The Chiefs are favored by 3.5 points, indicating a close contest ahead.
KC has struggled on the road, losing their last two away games to the Broncos and Bills. Despite standout performances from Mahomes and Kelce, the Chiefs have failed to close out tight games in hostile environments.
On the other hand, Dallas has been strong at home, securing a key win against the Eagles last week. However, their overall play has been inconsistent, especially against teams with a strong offensive line.
Looking at recent history, Big D have won the last two home meetings between these teams, including a 28-17 victory in 2017.
Cowboys Stats
Offensively, the Cowboys have thrown for 3,862 passing yards this season, ranking 11th in the league. Their rushing attack has been less effective, ranking 26th with just 1,705 yards.
Defensively, the Cowboys have excelled in pressuring quarterbacks, registering 52 sacks, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. They’ve also been strong in creating turnovers, with 13 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries.
However, their defense has allowed 6,039 total yards, ranking 28th in the league, which indicates vulnerabilities in certain areas.
Dallas enters this game with momentum, coming off consecutive wins over the Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders. Dak Prescott has played a key role in the recent success, with George Pickens emerging as a reliable target.
However, the Cowboys will be missing Miles Sanders and Trevon Diggs due to injury, which could impact both their running game and secondary.
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Chiefs Stats
Kansas City’s offense is ranked 14th in both scoring and passing yards, with a total of 3,780 passing yards. However, their rushing game has been below average, ranking 21st with just 1,790 yards.
Defensively, the Chiefs have performed well, holding opponents to the 4th lowest score in the league. They’ve accumulated 39 sacks and forced 13 interceptions, which ranks them 7th in the league.
Despite a strong defense, Kansas City has struggled on the road, losing their last two games. Their most recent victory came against the Washington Commanders, where they were able to show their offensive depth.
With Patrick Mahomes leading the offense with 2,977 passing yards and 18 touchdowns, the Chiefs will rely on their star quarterback to step up.
Travis Kelce has also been a top target with 674 receiving yards, while Kareem Hunt leads the rushing attack.
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Chiefs vs. Cowboys QB Matchup
Patrick Mahomes has been a constant force for the Chiefs this season, throwing for 2,977 yards and 18 touchdowns. His ability to make plays both in the air and on the ground, with an average of 28.9 rushing yards per game, makes him a dual-threat that keeps defenses on edge.
Dak Prescott has also had a solid season, with 2,941 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.
Prescott’s consistency has been a key factor in the Cowboys’ offense, but his ability to contribute on the ground, averaging 11.5 rushing yards per game, adds another layer to the Cowboys’ offensive attack.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys bottom line: With both teams featuring explosive offenses and strong defenses, expect a high-stakes battle.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs have gone 8-4 straight up as favorites in their last 12 regular season games.
- They are 7-5 against the spread as favorites in their last 12 regular season games.
- The under has hit in 8 of the Chiefs’ last 11 games as favorites.
- Also, the Cowboys have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games as underdogs.
- They are 4-1 against the spread after a loss in their last 5 games.
- The over has hit in 6 of the Cowboys’ last 9 games as underdogs.
Chiefs Cowboys Free Pick: Under 52.5
Here is my Chiefs Cowboys free pick. The Chiefs have consistently seen the under hit in 8 of their last 11 games when favored.
Their defensive stats from last season, ranking 4th in opponent scoring, support the likelihood of a lower-scoring game in this matchup.
The Chiefs’ ability to limit opposing offenses makes them tough to score on, which aligns with their trend of games staying under the total.
On the other hand, the Dallas Cowboys have shown a tendency for the over in 6 of their last 9 games as underdogs. However, their defensive struggles, ranking 28th in opponent scoring, could make it difficult for them to contain the Chiefs’ potent offense.
With the Chiefs’ strong defense and the Cowboys’ inconsistent performance, the under seems to be the more reliable pick here. The Cowboys’ inability to stop high-powered offenses like KC’s suggests this game may not reach the expected total of 52.5 points.
Given these trends, the under appears to be a more solid option for this matchup.
The odds might suggest a high-scoring game, but the defensive of the Chiefs and the Cowboys’ struggles point toward a lower total.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
A very Tyler Thanksgiving 🍗#DallasCowboys | @TysonBrand pic.twitter.com/PqWJx36KhU
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) November 26, 2025
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