Free Week 11 Prediction: Colts vs. Eagles NFL Odds
Looking for Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles Free NFL Week 11 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Colts taking on the Eagles on Sunday, November 20th, 2022 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Indianapolis Philadelphia Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
Date: Sunday, November 20th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
NFL Week 11 ATS Betting Lines: Colts +8 (-110) | Eagles -8 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 11 Moneyline Odds: Colts N/A | Eagles N/A
NFL Week 11 NFL Betting Total: O/U 45.0
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The Colts secured a win in Jeff Saturday’s interim debut while the undefeated Eagles finally suffered their first loss of 2022.
I made the prediction that Jeff Saturday stepping in would be a disaster and would send the Colts to Tank City, USA and who could really blame me? Instead, the Colts beat the miserable Raiders on Sunday, inching ever closer to .500
Philly found themselves in a dog fight on Monday Night Football and just couldn’t get it done. Three turnovers eventually sunk the Eagles which would do the same to just about every other team. Though they have just one loss, the Eagles are now tied for first in the NFC with Minnesota, and sit just one game ahead of the Giants in the East.
Indianapolis Colts
Matty Ice made his return to the lineup and delivered a win. He even did it with high efficiency, which surprised all of us. 21/28 for 222 and a score isn’t sexy, but it gets the job done.
Jonathan Taylor returned to the lineup in midseason form, posting 147 yards and a touchdown. Football Outsiders is still bearish on the Colts offense, but playing the league-worst defense in the Raiders doesn’t hurt.
Given Saturday’s playing days as an All-Pro center, we’d assume they continue to emphasize the run, but if Taylor continues to look this good I don’t think that’s a hinderance. Philly ranks as the 27th run defense by DVOA, so Taylor gets another juicy matchup in week 11.
The Colts do sport a good defense, however. They held Josh Jacobs to 78 yards on 3.7 ypc and are #2 in EPA/rush allowed. Though they sit at the median in EPA/dropback, they’re good enough that this game isn’t a given. In a lot of ways, Indy can mimic what allowed the Commanders to win the game.
Philadelphia Eagles
We can assume that Philly’s turnover luck will come back down to Earth after losing 3 fumbles against Washington. And frankly, Philly is in a few tiers above Indy.
Hurts was once again held to under 30 rushing yards, so it’s possible teams have started to figure him out. Although, it’s not just about yardage, it’s about success rate. Hurts was able to rush for a few first downs and keep the chains moving which is lethal in its own right. Hurts is still a top-5 QB by adjusted EPA/play.
On the list of other weird things that happened, AJ Brown suffered an early injury and never returned. It’s safe to assume losing the #1 wideout in the offense is going to hamper your chances at scoring. The Eagles still remain an elite offense, coming in at 4th in offense by DVOA.
Washington ran 49 times (!) against the Eagles and found plenty of success, rushing for 152 yards, although not highly efficiently. Now that the Eagles have lost a game, the copycat league will go back to work and try to follow this same formula. I mentioned it above, but the Colts are built to do just that.
The Eagles should be able to pressure Matt Ryan, which is something Las Vegas wasn’t capable of. Indy is allowing the fourth-highest adjusted sack rate, so I’d expect Philly to bring the heat and pressure the statue at QB.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Indianapolis’s last 15 games
- Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: Eagles -8
I know Indianapolis is a good story, but Philly as I mentioned, is a few tiers above Indy.
Let’s account for the fact that the Eagles likely won’t fumble 3 times in a game, AJ Brown plays more than a few offensive series and the much more stout defense of Philly makes it a harder day than Las Vegas did.
8 points is a large spread, but I’m comfortable riding with the Eagles.
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