Free Week 8 Prediction: Colts vs. Patriots NFL Odds
Looking for Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Free NFL Week 9 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Colts taking on the Patriots on Sunday, November 6th, 2022 at Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 9 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Indianapolis New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 9
(3-4-1) Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots (4-4)
Date: Sunday, November 6, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Gillette Stadium
NFL Week 8 ATS Betting Lines: Colts +5.5 (-110) | Patriots -5.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 9 Moneyline Odds: Colts +205 | Patriots -245
NFL Week 9 NFL Betting Total: O/U 40.0
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The Patriots are way too heavy of a favourite here after getting rinsed by the Bears two weeks ago, and only beating the Jets by 5 last week.
The 5.5 number might be right but -245 is too rich for me. That being said, this Colts team is struggling right now, have just benched their starting quarterback and have traded RB Nyheim Hines to the Bills.
The Patriots are in a funny position as it stands right now. They are painfully average, do not have an explosive offence definitely not enough to win meaningful games this year in the AFC, but they find a way to grind out ugly games by running the piss outta the ball and playing good defence.
They made no deals on trade deadline day despite being a .500 team currently at the bottom of their division.
Classic Bill.
And make no mistake about it, that defence is legit. No real standout talents with the exception of Jack Jones, and Kyle Dugger who is out currently with an injury, but they buzz around and make plays.
So, let’s dive into this battle between two AFC basement dwellers.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts analytics on defence aren’t actually half bad. They rank 7th in the league in opponents points allowed per game with 19.6 which should scare the Patriots a little who struggle to acquire 20.
They also average only 319 yards allowed to opposing teams which is good for 9th in the NFL, and 5.2 yards per play. These are all encouraging numbers if you’re thinking of betting them to upset the Pats who often struggle to move the chains.
I am not recommending it because it’s still a rookie quarterback going into Gillette against Bill Belichick and historically they get chewed up in that spot, but I would just caution laying the points on the other side as well because I could see this one being won in the trenches.
New England Patriots
The Patriots defensive metrics are really mediocre for the most part, but where they excel is touchdowns allowed per game where they sit at an average 2 per game for 6th in the league.
I won’t go through all of the rest but they really do deploy a bend don’t break strategy which is contradictory to my earlier statement a little I know but they make a ton of plays still. It’s the red zone D that makes them really stand out as an impressive unit.
What bothers me both as a Patriots fan and as someone who likes to bet on football is how inefficient their offence is. Their red zone scoring percentage resulting in touchdowns is 45%, which makes sense because all the Patriots do to acquire points is kick field goals.
It’s really frustrating to watch as a fan and Mac Jones continues to throw accurate footballs but this team lacks serious playmaking ability and the scheme doesn’t look particularly great under Matt Patricia.
NFL Betting Trends:
- New England are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England’s last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England’s last 10 games against Indianapolis.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England’s last 9 games at home.
- Indianapolis are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis’ last 13 games.
- Indianapolis are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against New England.
- Indianapolis are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games against New England.
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: Under 40.0 -110
The public is big time on the over in this one and I am not entirely sure why. Neither of these offences are moving the ball well and both defences are pretty good.
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