Free NFL Pick: Colts vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Colts taking on the Chiefs on 11/23 at Arrowhead Stadium, in Kansas City. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NFL football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NFL predictions like this Colts Chiefs free pick.
2025 NFL Handicapping – Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs
(8-2) Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
Date: Nov 23, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
NFL Moneyline Odds: Colts +153 | Chiefs -180 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Colts +3.5 | Chiefs -3.5
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 49.5
Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Colts Chiefs free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Colts vs. Chiefs Gameday
First, let’s set the stage for this Week 12 face-off between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs. The Colts, guided by head coach Shane Steichen, travel to Arrowhead Stadium with an impressive 8-2 record. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, led by Andy Reid, hold a 5-5 record and a strong 4-1 home record.
The Colts have been strong this season but face a tough challenge on the road against the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
The Colts have shown strength with a balanced offensive and defensive strategy. They have a 2-2 road record, indicating challenges away from home. Their recent loss to the Steelers might fuel their motivation against the Chiefs.
On the other hand, the Chiefs aim to leverage their home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium. With a robust home record, they hope to bounce back from consecutive away losses. Their recent games against the Broncos and Bills ended in narrow defeats, highlighting the need for improvement.
Week 12, Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs, we’re all hoping a great game is in store.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Last 5
The Colts enter with a moneyline of +151, indicating they are the underdog against the Chiefs, who hold a moneyline of -180. The point spread favors Kansas City by 3.5 points, and the total for the game is set at 50.5 points.
Looking back at their recent performances, the Colts recently faced a setback against the Pittsburgh Steelers, where they lost 27-20. Prior to that, they had a dominant home win over the Tennessee Titans, scoring 38-14. This variation in performance highlights the challenge they face on the road.
The Chiefs have had a mixed bag of results in their recent games. After a tough 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos, they aim to regain their form at home.
Their strong performance at Arrowhead Stadium against the Washington Commanders, winning 28-7, gives them a boost heading into this game.
Chiefs Stats
The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to rebound from recent setbacks. Despite a narrow 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos, the Chiefs have shown strong offensive capabilities throughout the season. Patrick Mahomes leads the charge with 2,625 passing yards, ranking first on the team and fourth in the league.
Looking at the Chiefs’ offensive statistics, they rank first in passing touchdowns with 18 and hold the second position in third-down conversions at 48.5%. Travis Kelce remains a key player, with 631 receiving yards and four touchdowns, contributing significantly to the team’s passing game.
Defensively, Kansas City stands firm with a top-four ranking in opponent scores, allowing only 326 points last season. They also rank within the top ten for sacks and interceptions, showcasing their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Chris Jones and Chamarri Conner have been instrumental in maintaining this defensive strength.
The Chiefs have had mixed results over recent weeks. While they secured dominant victories against the Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders, they fell short against the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos.
As they face the Indianapolis Colts, the Chiefs aim to leverage their home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium to regain their winning ways.
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Colts Stats
The Indianapolis Colts enter Week 12 with a mixed bag of performances. They recently experienced a setback against the Pittsburgh Steelers, losing 27-20. Despite the loss, quarterback Daniel Jones showed his capabilities, recording 342 passing yards, although he also threw three interceptions.
Jonathan Taylor remains a key player for the Colts, leading the league with 1,139 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns. Michael Pittman Jr. continues to be a reliable target, accumulating 580 receiving yards and six touchdowns. These players will be crucial as the Colts aim to overcome their recent challenges.
Defensively, the Colts face some hurdles. They rank 29th in opponent offensive yards, which highlights a vulnerability that could be exploited by the Chiefs. Nevertheless, the defense has been effective in recovering fumbles, ranking 5th in the league, which could be a turning point in their favor.
The Colts’ injury list is extensive, with key players like DeForest Buckner and Anthony Richardson Sr. on the injured reserve list. This could impact their depth and performance against a strong Kansas City team.
As they prepare for the game, the Colts will need to rely on their remaining healthy players to step up and deliver on the field.
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Colts vs. Chiefs QB Matchup
Patrick Mahomes continues to lead the Kansas City Chiefs with impressive stats this season. He has thrown for 2,625 yards, ranking fourth in the league, and has 18 passing touchdowns to his name. Additionally, Mahomes has limited his interceptions to just six, showcasing his precision and decision-making skills.
Daniel Jones has been a key player for the Indianapolis Colts. He has accumulated 2,659 passing yards, placing him third in the league, and has thrown 15 touchdowns. Jones’ ability to protect the ball is evident, as he has only thrown seven interceptions this season.
Mahomes’ dual-threat capability is highlighted by his rushing ability, adding 28.8 rushing yards per game to his impressive passing stats. This versatility makes him a constant threat to opposing defenses.
Jones contributes to the Colts’ offense not only through the air but also on the ground, with an average of 14.3 rushing yards per game.
His performance will be crucial as the Colts face a challenging matchup at Arrowhead Stadium. Both quarterbacks will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this exciting Week 12 game.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs bottom line: The Colts will need to overcome their road struggles, but Mahomes’ ability to dominate at home could give the Chiefs the edge in this matchup.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Football Betting Trends
- The Colts have gone 3-1 against the spread as underdogs in their last 4 games.
- In their last 7 away games, the Colts have hit the over 5 times.
- The Chiefs are 4-0 straight-up in their last 4 home games.
- Also, the Chiefs are 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 home games.
- The Chiefs have struggled with the over, going 2-4 in their last 6 home games.
- Additionally, in their last 10 games as favorites, the Chiefs are 3-7 on the over/under.
Colts Chiefs Free Pick: Under 50.5
Here is my Colts Chiefs free pick. The Colts have been effective at hitting the over in away games, achieving it in 5 of their last 7.
However, the Chiefs have shown a pattern of lower-scoring games at home, with the over hitting just twice in their last 6 home games.
This suggests a potential for a lower total score in this matchup.
Additionally, the Chiefs’ defense has been consistent, ranking 4th in opponent scoring last season. Their ability to limit opposing offenses could play a key role in keeping the total score down. The Colts’ road performance, with a 2-2 record, suggests they may struggle to score heavily against a tough Chiefs defense.
Trends indicate the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis’ last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City. Furthermore, the total has gone UNDER in 5 of KC’s last 5 games and in 6 of their last 7 games against Indy.
The total has also gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games at home against Indy too, and 7 of their last 10 games against opponents in the AFC South division.
Considering both teams’ recent trends and defensive capabilities, the under appears to be a reasonable pick.
With the Chiefs’ strong home defense and the Colts’ variable road offense, under 50.5 looks like the smart bet here.
The historical head-to-head matchups support a lower-scoring game, making this a solid pick for the total.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
From BBQ relays to speed drills, @Primetime_jet gave @LEGIQN a true taste of Chiefs Kingdom 🍖
Watch the full episode of NFL R2EZ now: https://t.co/AYro1EnkJN pic.twitter.com/s2sJRBA8SU
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 20, 2025
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