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Free NFL Week 16 Pick: Colts vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons free NFL Week 16 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Colts taking on the Falcons on Sunday, December 24th at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Indianapolis Atlanta matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
(8-6) Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-8)
Date: Sunday, December 24th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
NFL Week 16 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Indianapolis -2 | Atlanta +2
Week 16 NFL Moneyline Odds: Indianapolis -131 | Atlanta +107
NFL Betting Total: O/U 44.5
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The Gardner had a great week for the Colts. Minshew threw three TDs, and the Colts ran for 170 yards, boosting their playoff chances with a 30-13 victory over the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday.
On the other side, the weather was bad, and it was a tough game for the Dirty Birds. Atlanta (6-8) was tied with New Orleans and Tampa Bay for first in the NFC South.
But now, they need help for the playoffs as the Saints and Buccaneers both won to go 7-7.
The Colts and Falcons did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Colts have a record of 2-1.
The Colts also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 44 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
The Colts and Falcons have faced off 17 times, with the Colts winning 15 games and the Falcons 2. The Colts lead the series 15-2-0.
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Indianapolis Colts
In the AFC-South standings, the Colts are in 2nd place with a record of 8-6. Within the AFC, Indianapolis is 7th, heading into week 16.
The Colts have an ATS record of 9-5.
Even though the Colts did not score in the first-quarter, they still recovered to pick up the win. Offensively, they finished with 372 yards while giving up 216 yards to the Steelers.
Going into the game, Indianapolis was favored by 1 and went on to cover the spread. Gardner Minshew threw for 215 yards while completing 64% of his passes and throwing for 215.
Minshew threw for three touchdowns.
Indianapolis Colts Stats
On offense, the Colts finished with 372 yards against the Steelers. On third-down situations, the Colts had a 40% conversion rate. Notably, Trey Sermon led the rushing attack with 88 yards, while Minshew passed for 215 yards.
Coming into week 16, the Colts offense is 8th in the league at 24.6 points per contest.
It’s great to rely on reliable teammates. The Colts’ backup runners shone on Sunday. Trey Sermon led with 17 rushes, 88 yards, and Tyler Goodson ran 11 times for 69 yards, with a 31-yard sprint.
On defense, the Colts come into the game ranked 4th in tackles for loss and 3rd in sacks. Opponents are scoring 24.5 points per game vs. them along with an average of 347.5 yards per contest.
Atlanta Falcons
In the NFC-South standings, the Falcons find themselves in 3rd place with a record of 6-8.
In the NFC, Atlanta is in 10th place as week 16 approaches. As the underdog, Atlanta has gone 2-2 this season compared to their ATS record of 2-8 as the favorite.
At home, the Falcons are 2-5 ATS and 2-5 vs. the spread on the road.
In the Falcons’ loss to the Panthers, the Falcons finished with 204 yards of offense compared to the Panthers’ 283. The Panthers ran the ball 36 times for 129 yards and averaged 6.4 yards per passing attempt for 154 yards.
Atlanta also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 3 point favorites. Desmond Ridder threw for 152 yards while completing 60% of his passes and throwing for 152.
Ridder threw for one touchdown.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
On offense, Ridder ended with 152 passing yards on a completion rate of 60%. On the ground, the Falcons ran the ball 31 times, amassing 52 yards. The team converted 6 third-downs at a rate of 46.2%.
So far this season, the Atlanta offense has been averaging 18.4 points per game, ranking them 23rd in the league.
The Falcons are 10th in the league in terms of yards allowed, giving up 311.7 yards per contest.
Atlanta’s defense comes in with an average of 19.9 points per game allowed, which is 8th in the NFL.
Atlanta’s quarterback troubles ruined their promising season. Now, Heinicke must step up to rescue it. They thought Desmond Ridder would lead in 2023, but he’s benched again, second time this year.
What to make of the QB situation in Atlanta?
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Colts are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Falcons are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Colts are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Falcons have gone 3-7 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Colts’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Falcons’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Colts vs. Falcons Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Colts | +102 | -131 | +1.5 | -2 |
Falcons | -120 | +107 | -1.5 | +2 |
4* Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: Atlanta +2
After a sloppy game in the rain against the Panthers, what did we learn about the Falcons offense and defense? I’d argue, not a whole helluva lot.
Sure some might say the Falcons pass defense should play well against Minshew’s Colts (especially Pittman Jr. is out) but I just can’t trust the Falcons this year. Fool me once…shame on me.
When playing on the road against Atlanta, they’ve won 8 out of their last 9 games.
Despite being 2-point road favorites, I like the Colts to cover against Atlanta.
For this matchup, I’m going to be hammering the under, as our model has the Colts and Falcons combining for 47 points.
Right now the over/under line is sitting at 44.5, so I’d recommend getting some action on the under.
I’ve been searching the web for NFL betting trends for the Colts vs. Falcons game, and I’ve got you covered. Indianapolis has been doing well lately, with a 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU record in their last 6 games.
They’ve also been strong against Atlanta, with a 6-1 ATS and a 15-2 SU record in their last 17 matchups.
Now, if you’re interested in over/under trends, here’s some info to help you make your pick for this game.
Indianapolis games have often gone OVER, with 4 out of their last 5 games hitting the OVER mark, and 8 out of 11 on the road.
When facing NFC opponents, 6 out of their last 7 games have gone OVER.
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Colts Falcons NFL Handicapping
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Key words. Falcons fall back.
NFL Power Rankings Week 16: 49ers stay on top, Bills surge, Eagles drop and Falcons fall back after Panthers losshttps://t.co/p0KHb60ias
— Scott Bair (@ScottBairNFL) December 19, 2023
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