Free NFL Divisional Round Pick: Texans vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs free Divisional round picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Texans taking on the Chiefs on Saturday, January 18th at the Arrowhead Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Playoff games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Houston Kansas City Divisional playoff matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Divisional Weekend
2025 NFL Playoffs – Divisional Round
(10-7) Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Date: Saturday, January 18th
Time: 4:30 ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Houston +8 | Kansas City -8
NFL Moneyline Odds: Houston +364 | Kansas City -472
NFL Betting Total: O/U 41.5
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The stakes couldn’t be higher as the Houston Texans travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs in a Divisional Round playoff clash.
This rivalry has seen 15 meetings, including two postseason battles, with Kansas City holding a commanding 10-5 edge.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Chiefs have the leg up at 3-0. The Chiefs also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 51 points per game leading to an over/under record of 3-0.
The last showdown, just weeks ago, ended in a 27-19 Chiefs victory, but don’t count on an exact repeat.
Houston Texans
Houston finished the regular season 10-7, which was good enough to win the AFC South. They went 5-1 in division games and 9-4 in the conference, putting them 4th in the AFC. The Texans were 6-3 at home and 5-4 on the road.
They ranked 16th in our power rankings heading into the playoffs.
Against the spread, Houston was 8-9-1, with a +1.1 average scoring margin. They went 4-6-1 as favorites and 4-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record was 7-10-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points compared to a 44.3-point line.
Houston Texans Stats
In our offensive power rankings, the Texans sit 20th in the NFL, and they are 15th in points per game, averaging 22.4. They rank 18th in the league with 325.8 passing yards per game and are 20th in passing yards, with 210.4 per game.
Houston is 9th in pass attempts, averaging 33.5 per game, and they rank 21st in rushing attempts, with 26 per game, while sitting 14th in rushing yards, with 115.4 per game.
On 3rd down, the Texans are 17th in the NFL, converting 37.7% of the time, and they are 15th in red zone conversions, with a 28.1% success rate.
In the Wild Card round, Houston scored 32 points, with 10 coming in the 3rd quarter and 12 in the 4th. C.J. Stroud threw for 282 yards, completing 22 of 33 passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.
Joe Mixon led the rushing attack with 106 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries, while Nico Collins had 7 catches for 122 yards and a touchdown.
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The Texans’ defense was dominant in their 32-12 win over the Chargers, coming up with four interceptions and holding them to just 12% on third down. Houston’s defense allowed only 211 passing yards on 14 completions and forced the Chargers into just 18 rushing attempts, resulting in 50 yards on the ground.
They also allowed just one touchdown and held the Chargers to a 27.3% third-down conversion rate.
Overall, the Texans allowed just 261 total yards and came away with four interceptions. They also had four sacks and limited the Chargers to a 43.8% completion percentage.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs finished the season 15-2, putting them at the top of the AFC. They went 5-1 in the division and 10-2 in conference play, and they were a perfect 8-0 at home.
In our power rankings, the Chiefs are 6th heading into the playoffs. They have an average scoring margin of +3.5 points per game and are 7-9-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 7-10, with the under hitting in their last two games.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Heading into the divisional round, the Chiefs rank 8th in our offensive power rankings. They are 14th in the NFL in points per game (22.6) and 16th in yards per game (327.6). Kansas City has been strong on 3rd down, converting 48.5% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the league.
They are 6th in passing attempts per game but only 13th in passing yards, averaging 222.4 per game. In the red zone, they rank 23rd in conversion percentage.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Texans are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Chiefs are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Texans are 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chiefs have gone 5-4-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Texans’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Chiefs’ have an over/under record of 0-3 in their last 3 games at home.
Texans vs. Chiefs Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | +335 | +364 | +8 | +8 |
| Chiefs | -441 | -472 | -8 | -8 |
4* Free NFL Playoff Betting Prediction: Houston +8
Houston, riding a late-season surge, has won four of their last six and boasts a strong 5-1 ATS record in January games. They’ve proven they can hang tough against AFC competition, going 12-5 SU in their last 17 conference matchups.
Our pick vs. the spread in this Texans vs. Chiefs matchup is to take the Texans to cover as road underdogs. They are currently sitting at +8 point road underdogs, and we have them losing by a score of 23-20, making the Chiefs our pick to win straight-up.
Kansas City enters as heavy favorites at -8, but recent trends show they’ve struggled to cover, going just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. Houston’s secondary is a legitimate X-factor, with the potential to disrupt Patrick Mahomes and limit Travis Kelce’s impact.
For an over/under pick, we really like the over, with a predicted combined score of 43 points. With the O/U line sitting at just 41.5 points, there is a lot of value in taking the over in this one.
If the Texans can contain the Chiefs’ high-octane offense and keep this a grind-it-out game, they might just stay within the number.
With the O/U set at 41.5, this has the makings of a playoff thriller. Expect a battle from start to finish, and plenty of action for bettors looking to dive into this AFC showdown.
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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Let’s make magic. pic.twitter.com/gF1pn7JERs
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 8, 2025
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