Free NFL Wild Card round Pick: Broncos vs. Bills Odds
Looking for Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills free Wild Card round picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Broncos taking on the Bills on Sunday, January 12th at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Playoff games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Denver Buffalo wild card matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Wildcard Playoffs
2025 NFL Wild Card Weekend
(10-7) Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Date: Sunday, January 12th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Denver +8.5 | Buffalo -8.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Denver +358 | Buffalo -468
NFL Betting Total: O/U 47
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Get ready for an electrifying Wild Card showdown as the Denver Broncos (10-7) head to Highmark Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills (13-4) in a classic AFC clash! Buffalo holds the all-time series lead at 23-17-1, but Denver took the most recent matchup—a thrilling 24-22 victory in Orchard Park back in November 2023.
Josh Allen, the likely MVP favorite, has been nothing short of spectacular this season, leading the No. 2-seeded Bills into the playoffs as one of the top Super Bowl contenders.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Bills have the leg up at 2-1. The Bills also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 45 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
All I have to say is don’t sleep on the resurgent Broncos under Sean Payton.
Denver Broncos
Denver finished the regular season with a 10-7 record, placing them 3rd in the AFC West and 7th in the conference. The Broncos ranked 17th in our power rankings heading into the season. Against the spread, they went 12-5, including an 8-0 record as favorites. Their O/U record was 11-6, with their games averaging 43.3 points compared to an average line of 41.3.
In week 18, the Broncos bounced back from two straight losses with a 38-0 win over the Chiefs. They covered the 11-point spread, but the game went under the 40.5-point line. In week 17, Denver lost 30-24 to the Bengals, and in week 16, they fell 34-27 to the Chargers.
Denver Broncos Stats
Denver ranks 16th in our offensive power rankings and is 10th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 25 points per game. They are 19th in total yards, with 324.6 per game, and 20th in passing yards, averaging 212.4. On the ground, they rank 16th, with 112.2 rushing yards per game.
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In their most recent game, the Broncos’ defense was dominant, allowing just 98 yards to the Chiefs in a 38-0 win. The passing game was suffocating, allowing only 71 yards through the air and limiting the Chiefs to a 58.8% completion percentage. The Broncos’ secondary didn’t give up any touchdowns and allowed just 10 completions.
On top of their strong coverage, the Broncos’ pass rush was excellent, recording five sacks and generating a lot of pressure. The Chiefs couldn’t get anything going on the ground, with just 27 rushing yards on 11 attempts. Additionally, Denver’s defense was outstanding on third downs, allowing the Chiefs to convert just 11.1% of their third down attempts.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo finished the regular season 13-4, putting them 2nd in the AFC and 1st in the AFC East. After two straight losses in weeks 4 and 5, the Bills closed out the season with three consecutive wins, including a 31-10 victory over the Dolphins in week 2 and a 47-10 win over the Jaguars in week 3. In week 1, they beat the Cardinals 34-28, but couldn’t cover the 6.5-point spread. The combined score of 62 points went over the 45.5-point line.
Heading into the playoffs, Buffalo has a +9.2 scoring margin and is 10-7 against the spread. They are 8-5 ATS as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 11-6, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Buffalo ranks 3rd in our offensive power rankings and is 2nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 30.9. They are 10th in total yards per game (359.1) and 9th in passing yards per game (227.9), despite ranking 22nd in passing attempts. On the ground, the Bills are 9th in rushing yards per game, with 131.2, on 28.9 attempts per game.
In their 23-16 loss to the Patriots, the Bills’ defense allowed 232 passing yards and 77 rushing yards on just 2.6 yards per attempt. New England finished with 309 total yards, hitting on 73.3% of their passes and converting 33.3% of their third downs. Buffalo’s defense managed one sack and had more tackles for loss than the Patriots.
Buffalo’s defense also had two more quarterback hits than the Patriots. Despite these positive stats, the Bills were unable to come out with a win.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Broncos are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Broncos are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Broncos’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 3-0.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Broncos vs. Bills Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | +311 | +357 | +8 | +8.5 |
| Bills | -406 | -464 | -8 | -8.5 |
4* Free Wild Card NFL Betting Prediction: Denver +8.5
Denver’s defense has been relentless, and they’ve been a dream for bettors, covering the spread in six of their last eight games.
With Bo Nix stepping in at quarterback and the defense likely giving him plenty of short-field opportunities, the Broncos could make this much closer than the odds suggest.
Buffalo may be 8.5-point favorites, but they’ve struggled against the spread in January, going 2-4 ATS in their last six games. Denver will show some fight in this one, so our pick vs. the spread is to take the Broncos to cover as road underdogs in this Wild Card matchup between the Broncos and Bills.
Right now, the point spread lines have the Bills as 8.5-point favorites, and with our projected score of 27-23 in favor of Buffalo, we are going with Denver to cover. Bo Nix will play the game of his life in a loss.
For an over/under pick, we really like taking the over, with a projected combined score of 50 points and the line sitting at 47 points. This is a great time to jump on the over before the line moves, as we see a lot of value in this one.
This one promises to be a high-stakes chess match, with Allen’s explosive playmaking clashing against Denver’s gritty, grind-it-out style.
The playoffs are all about surprises, and this game has all the ingredients for a wild ride!
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Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Someone get @Ray_Davis07 some McDonald’s!
Watch Ray mic’d up on our YouTube now: https://t.co/SZ7OzlhxDj@GEICO | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/DvkD01T7v3
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 8, 2025
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