Free Week 16 Prediction: Cowboys vs. Eagles NFL Odds
Looking for Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Free NFL Week 16 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Cowboys taking on the Eagles on Saturday, December 24th, 2022 at AT&T Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Dallas Philadelphia Matchup.
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NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
Dallas Cowboys (10-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (13-1)
Date: Saturday, December 24th, 2022
Time: 4:25 PM EST
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
NFL Week 16 ATS Betting Lines: Cowboys -6 (-110) | Eagles +6 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 16 Moneyline Odds: Cowboys -255 | Eagles +202
NFL Week 16 NFL Betting Total: O/U 46.5
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With a healthy divisional lead, the Eagles are holding out Jalen Hurts against rival Dallas.
Unfortunately, the NFC East lead for Philly is more than a game or we would have a compelling storyline for this week.
Dallas doesn’t have much to gain from this game alone, but if Philly were to go on the road and win with backup Gardner Minshew, it would seal the division altogether. Dallas could still use some, “get right” games out of their defense before the start of the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has racked up quite the amount of injuries this season and only in the last few weeks have they finally started to see it affect them. They catch a break this week though in that they miss potential MVP Jalen Hurts.
Dak sealed the game for Jacksonville by throwing an interception in overtime but otherwise played a fine game. He added the go-ahead score on a touchdown throw to Noah Brown with 3:02 to go that the defense couldn’t hold.
Pollard and Zeke have been mixed efficiently and rank 4th in EPA/rush since week 12. The only weakness Philly seemingly has is their run defense, so this is an edge to pay attention to.
That brings us to the defense. No group has received more of the public scrutiny lately than the Dallas defense. DVOA is still very bullish, calling them the 3rd best overall unit. EPA also backs up this claim, ranking big D 3rd in overall EPA/play allowed since week 13.
So the, “sky is falling” connotation surrounding the defense is a bit overblown. They still generate the most pressure in the league, which is of added importance as they will not be facing Hurts’ mobility but Minshew instead. Prior to allowing 40 to Jacksonville, opponents only managed 16.3 ppg in the previous 4 weeks against Dallas, including Minnesota.
Philadelphia Eagles
I don’t want to overreact to Hurts being out, because Philly is still one of the most complete teams in the league and Minshew has shown well in his limited time as a starter. Let’s not forget either that value is generated when a backup comes in because of the disparity between actual value and perceived value.
Minshew delivered a 33-14 win over the Jets last year where he was 20/25 for 242 and two touchdowns. The offense with all of its weapons will still be competent in this spot.
Philly is the league’s #1 rush offense by DVOA, but a lot of that is propped up by Hurts. Sanders has been a reliable option though doesn’t represent the same amount of explosiveness. Dallas is a top-10 rushing defense by DVOA, so we need to temper our expectations a little.
Hurts or no Hurts, the Philly defense is still a great pass defending unit. Bradberry and Slay have combined (along with the backend safeties) to put Philly 2nd in pass D. Dallas sports no shortage of targetable options through the air, so this will get tested. The run D is obviously the lacking end of the defense and they face a tough matchup this week.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas’s last 7 games
4* Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: PHI +6
I think there is value to the number with Philly. Again, I think people are down on the Eagles because Minshew is starting, but I don’t know the drop-off is worth 3 points to the line.
But I do wonder what Philly’s motivation is here. Sure, they could clinch the division, but New Orleans and the Giants wait after Dallas and could be apart of their clinching formula instead.
Since 2021, Dallas is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite, covering by an average of 6 points, so we don’t see a ton of value in betting trends.
I don’t love it, but I just can’t lay the points with Dallas. 6 is too much in a divisional matchup where I don’t feel Minshew is a huge drop-off.
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