Free NFL Week 16 Pick: Browns vs. Texans Odds
Looking for Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans free NFL Week 16 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Browns taking on the Texans on Sunday, December 24th at the NRG Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Cleveland Houston matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
(9-5) Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans (8-6)
Date: Sunday, December 24th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston TX
NFL Week 16 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Cleveland +2.5 | Houston -2.5
Week 16 NFL Moneyline Odds: Cleveland +118 | Houston -142
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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What a finish that was last week for the Browns. They nearly lost it all on that last hail-mary play of the game. The Bears were up 17-7 going into the fourth quarter on Sunday in Cleveland. However, the Browns came back, scoring 13 points without a reply, and won 20-17.
On the other side, Houston seems to enjoy close games too. Surprisingly, they won with their third-string QB.
Ka’imi Fairbairn made a 54-yard field goal as overtime ended, and the Texans, led by Case Keenum, came back from a 13-point deficit to defeat the Titans 19-16 on Sunday.
Last year, the Browns and Texans faced off one time, with Browns winning 27-14. With their combined 41, the Browns and Texans fell short of the over/under line of 46.5.
The Browns covered the spread in this matchup. Offensively, the Browns finished with 304 total yards with 130 coming in the passing game and 174 on the ground.
The Texans finished with 283 yards of offense in the loss.
These two teams clashed 12 times. The Texans lost the first two in 2002 and 2005 but won seven of the next nine.
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Cleveland Browns
Heading into week 16, the Browns are 2nd in the AFC-North on a record of 9-5. When comparing their mark to other teams in the AFC, they are 5th.
So far, they have gone 2-4 on the road and 7-1 at home.
This has resulted in an ATS record of 8-5-1.
Even though, the Browns’ offense picked up a below-average number of first-downs, they still went on to beat the Bears. The Browns finished with 377 yards of total offense compared to 236 for the Bears. The Bears averaged 3.7 yards per passing attempt and 3.3 yards per rush.
Going into the game, Cleveland was favored by 2.5 and went on to cover the spread. Quarterback Joe Flacco had a big game, throwing for 374 yards on a passer rating of 77.
Flacco struggled against the Bears, but he came through when it mattered to secure the win. This team’s playoff chances just got a lot brighter.
Flacco completed 63% of 44 attempts in the game.
Cleveland Browns Stats
Offensively, Flacco totaled 374 passing yards with a completion rate of 63%. On the rushing front, the Browns had 18 attempts, gaining 29 yards. The team converted 4 of 16 third-down attempts.
With an average of 22.1 points per contest, the Cleveland offense currently ranks 11th in the league.
When it comes to defense, the Browns have given up 158.9 passing yards and 102.2 rushing yards per game. In terms of sacks, Cleveland ranks 7th among other defenses.
Coming into week 16, they have allowed 20.6 points per game and 261.1 yards.
This defense is crazy good. Cleveland leads the NFL, forcing 55 three-and-outs, boasting an impressive 34.4% rate. No other defense comes close, with none even hitting 28%.
Houston Texans
Coming into their game against Browns, the Texans are trying to improve on a 8-6 record.
This mark has them at 3rd in the AFC-South and 8th in the AFC. This season, the Texans find themselves above .500 versus the spread with a record of 7-7.
In the Texans’ win over the Titans, the Texans’ offense finished with 340 yards of offense compared to the Titans’ 204. The Texans went 4/15 on 3rd down, while the Titans converted on 26.7% of their 3rd down attempts.
Houston went into the game as the underdog (+3), giving them a straight-up and ATS win. Case Keenum threw for 229 yards while completing 63% of his passes and throwing for 229.
Keenum threw for one touchdown.
Houston Texans Stats
On offense, the Texans finished with 340 yards against the Titans. On third-down situations, the Texans had a 26.7% conversion rate. Notably, Devin Singletary led the rushing attack with 121 yards, while Keenum passed for 229 yards.
With an average of 21.9 points per contest, the Houston offense currently ranks 13th in the league.
Going up against the Browns’ offense, the Texans defense has allowed an average of 21.1 points per game.
So far this season, they are 11th in quarterback hits and have yielded an average of 332.6 yards per contest.
Sometimes when you see Case Keenum, you can tell he’s got something special.
He bounced back after a tough start, trailing 13-0 and throwing a pick-six, and gradually helped the Texans get back in the game.
He’s aware that his team is after the last AFC wild card spot. Despite missing three key players on offense – Dell, Collins, and Stroud – he still led the team. Huge stones.
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Browns are 2-2-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Browns are 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Texans have gone 7-3 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Browns’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 3-0.
- The Texans’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Browns vs. Texans Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Browns | -108 | +118 | +1.5 | +2.5 |
Texans | -108 | -142 | -1.5 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: Cleveland +2.5
All that said, considering Houston’s recent struggles in the passing game against Tennessee, I’m not optimistic about a sudden change.
The Browns have been performing well lately, with a 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games and a 5-2 SU record in the same period.
Their defense is TOPS in my book. It will “TRUMP” the Texans offense this weekend.
They’re especially strong against AFC opponents, with a 4-1 SU record and a perfect 9-0 SU record against AFC South teams.
Plus, they’ve covered the spread in 6 out of their last 9 December games. On the other hand, the Texans have struggled, winning only 2 out of their last 10 games against AFC North opponents.
The Browns also tend to perform well against teams with winning records, with a 5-0 ATS record.
That’s why I’m liking Cleveland as 2.5-point underdogs. I do still like the Texans straight up on the ML though.
For this matchup, I’m going to be hammering the OVER, as our model has the Browns and Texans combining for 50+ points.
Right now the over/under line is sitting at 42.5, so I’d recommend getting some action on the OVER.
My model calls for 54 total points in this one.
Now, if you’re interested in over/under trends, here’s some helpful information. Cleveland games have gone OVER in 6 out of their last 9 games, and when they’re on the road, it’s gone OVER in all of their last 7 games.
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Browns Texans NFL Handicapping
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Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Defense holding it down 🔐
Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have at least 20 touches in a game and produce less than 15 yards from scrimmage. pic.twitter.com/LFcIMiBDD2— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 19, 2023
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