Free NFL Week 18 Pick: Panthers vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Panthers taking on the Falcons on Sunday, January 5th at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 18 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Carolina Atlanta matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 18
(4-12) Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Carolina +8 | Atlanta -8
NFL Moneyline Odds: Carolina +326 | Atlanta -433
NFL Betting Total: O/U 48
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The stakes are high as the Carolina Panthers (4-12) head to Atlanta to face the Falcons (8-8) in a Week 18 NFC South showdown at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The long-standing rivalry between these teams has tilted heavily in Atlanta’s favor, with the Falcons leading the all-time series 37-22, including a commanding 38-20 victory in Carolina earlier this season.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Falcons have the leg up at 2-1. The Falcons also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 36 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
With the Falcons clinging to playoff hopes and the Panthers trying to salvage pride, this game promises intensity—and a lot of betting intrigue.
Carolina Panthers
Heading into week 18, the Panthers sit at 4-12 and rank 32nd in our NFL power rankings. They have a -12.4 scoring margin this season and are 7-9 against the spread. Carolina is 0-1 ATS as a favorite and 7-8 as an underdog. Their O/U record is 12-4, with the over hitting in three straight games.
In week 17, the Panthers lost 48-14 to the Buccaneers, dropping their record to 4-12. They were unable to cover the spread as 10-point underdogs, and the 62 combined points went over the 47.5-point line.
In week 16, Carolina picked up a 36-30 win over the Cardinals, snapping a five-game losing streak.
Carolina Panthers Stats
Heading into week 18, the Panthers rank 24th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 18.6 points per game, which is also 24th in the NFL. They are 31st in passing yards per game (182.4) and 20th in rushing yards per game (107.7), with 23.8 rushing attempts per game.
Carolina ranks 27th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 34.7% success rate, but they are 11th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 17th in red zone attempts.
Bryce Young threw for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 17, completing 15 of 28 passes, with a passer rating of 100. Adam Thielen had 5 catches for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Raheem Blackshear led the team in rushing with 20 yards on 8 carries.
Carolina scored 14 points in the first half but was shut out in the second half against Tampa Bay.
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The Panthers’ defense gave up 551 yards in their 48-14 loss to the Buccaneers, struggling to stop the passing game. Tampa Bay completed 84.4% of their passes for 349 yards, averaging 10.9 yards per attempt, and threw for five touchdowns.
Carolina also allowed the Buccaneers to convert on 71.4% of their third down attempts.
While the Panthers did have two sacks, their run defense also had a tough game, allowing 202 rushing yards on 40 attempts. Additionally, Carolina’s defense allowed 27 completions in the passing game.
Atlanta Falcons
Heading into week 18, the Falcons sit at 8-8, giving them a 13.9% chance of making the playoffs.
They rank 19th in our power rankings and are 2nd in the NFC South with a 4-1 division record. Atlanta is 7-4 in conference games and 4-4 both at home and on the road.
Against the spread, the Falcons are 6-9-1, with a 5-4-1 record as favorites and a 1-5 record as underdogs.
Their average scoring margin is -1.8 points per game. Their O/U record is 6-10, with their games averaging 45.6 points compared to a 46.1-point line.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Heading into week 18, the Falcons sit 15th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 16th in points per game, averaging 21.9, and are 10th in the NFL with 359.4 passing yards per game. Atlanta is 14th in passing attempts and 8th in passing yards per game, averaging 234.9. On the ground, they rank 9th in rushing attempts and 12th in rushing yards, with 124.5 per game.
The Falcons are 18th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 37.4%.
In week 17, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 223 yards, completing 19 of 35 passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Bijan Robinson rushed for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries, while Drake London had 7 receptions for 106 yards.
Atlanta scored 7 points in the 1st quarter, 10 in the 2nd, and 7 in the 4th, but were held scoreless in the 3rd. They converted 3 of 3 red zone attempts but struggled on 3rd down, going just 2 for 10.
Despite their 30-24 overtime loss to the Commanders, the Falcons’ defense managed to sack the quarterback five times and force one interception in their most recent game. They gave up 196 passing yards but allowed three passing touchdowns.
On the ground, Atlanta struggled, giving up 216 rushing yards on just 36 attempts, with Washington finishing with 412 total yards.
Opposing offenses converted on 46.2% of their third down attempts against the Falcons. Atlanta’s defense did have a good amount of tackles for loss and won the QB hit differential and tackles for loss differential in the game.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Panthers are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Falcons are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Falcons have gone 3-6-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Panthers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Falcons’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Panthers vs. Falcons Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | +225 | +326 | +6.5 | +8 |
| Falcons | -278 | -433 | -6.5 | -8 |
4* Free Week 18 NFL Betting Prediction: Carolina +8
The Panthers are reeling, losing five straight on the road and struggling both outright and against the spread, going 6-12 ATS in their last 18 against Atlanta.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are finding their groove, winning four of their last five games as favorites, fueled by an offense that’s started to click at the right time.
For bettors, Atlanta’s consistency as favorites and Carolina’s road woes make this matchup particularly intriguing. With the Falcons motivated to end the season strong, expect plenty of action both on the field and at the sportsbooks.
Our pick vs. the spread in this week 18 matchup between the Panthers and Falcons is to take the Panthers to cover as road underdogs. Even though the point spread has the Panthers at +8, we have the Falcons winning 24-20.
For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 44 points. With the O/U line sitting at 48 points, there is some good value in taking the under.
At -8, Atlanta enters as clear favorites, with a moneyline of -433 versus Carolina’s +326. The 48-point total also hints at a potentially high-scoring affair.
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Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
The sixth Falcon EVER to surpass 1,700 scrimmage yards in a season:
William Andrews
Gerald Riggs
Jamal Anderson
Michael Turner
Julio Jones@Bijan5Robinson pic.twitter.com/QaIgFW18KY— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) January 2, 2025
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