Free Week 9 Prediction: Falcons vs. Chargers NFL Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Chargers Free NFL Week 9 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Chargers on Sunday, November 6th, 2022 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 9 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta – Los Angeles Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 9
Atlanta Falcons (4-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
Date: Sunday, November 6th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
NFL Week 9 ATS Betting Lines: Falcons +3 (-110) | Chargers -3 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 9 Moneyline Odds: Falcons +138 | Chargers -170
NFL Week 9 NFL Betting Total: O/U 49.5
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Atlanta, fresh off a wild divisional win, welcomes the Chargers with an extra week of rest and preparation.
It was understated because of the teams involved, but the Falcons and Panthers played a wild game in Week 8. After trading shots back all game, the Panthers scored in under a minute to tie the game, but an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty moved the PAT back 15 yards, leading to an Eddy Pineiro miss, sending the game to OT.
In overtime, the Panthers had a field goal opportunity to win and that too was a miss, ultimately leading to the Falcons hitting a game-winning field goal. Sometimes winning a game in the National Football League is about catching the right breaks.
Los Angeles certainly enjoyed their week off for extra rest and preparation. The Chargers have dealt with injuries all year, including to Justin Herbert. The rib injury he sustained in the Week 2 TNF matchup against the Chiefs has been lingering all season and hampering his play. A win this week would make the Chargers feel a lot better about their playoff aspirations in a very tough AFC.
Atlanta Falcons
I’ve written multiple times on the Falcons this season and each week feels like a new adventure. Even with a 4-4 record, they sit atop the NFC South and that means they’ve got a playoff seed. Yeah, THESE Falcons have a playoff seed. I think they’re fine. It’s not as though they’re the Commanders the year they made the playoffs under .500 but they profile as a wild card at best.
DVOA is still bullish on the Falcons offensively, ranking them 9th overall. Carolina rates as the 7th best rush defense, but Atlanta was still able to hang 167 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry. The Chargers are 23rd in rush D, so it stands to reason Atlanta will have another successful day on the ground.
Mariota limits his offense, but he does just enough to not get replaced by the rookie Desmond Ridder. Mariota threw three touchdowns but did surrender two interceptions. The Chargers will have to figure a way to stop his running ability though.
The biggest weakness of the Falcon defense is that they generate almost no pressure. Herbert is the type of QB that if given enough time, he can find the holes in the defense and make a long day for Atlanta. DVOA says the Falcons are the 31st defense overall, which again is a tough sight against a good offense.
If you could give a positive spin, it’d be that the Chargers can’t run the ball. They’ve struggled all year to put up much in the trenches and if I don’t have to worry about an entire phase…
Los Angeles Chargers
Rest is emerging as an analytical edge, but still remains underrated in my mind. Preparation is harder to quantify but is also a factor to be considered when taking a side. The Chargers get the check mark for both of those this week.
Herbert has clearly been affected by the injury, but they’re still just outside the top 10 in passing offense. Keenan Allen has been missed in the offense, but with an extra week of rest he may be able to go for this one. Mike Williams is expected to miss a month after sustaining a significant ankle injury.
Atlanta has the NFL’s 30th passing defense and rank dead last in passing yards allowed per game (306.9). Herbert should be able to carry the offense, even with a non-existent rushing attack.
So the question is, can the Chargers stop the run? Atlanta is sort of one-dimensional, which seems funny to say a week after Mariota threw for three touchdowns, but the Chargers have stopped the pass pretty well this season and have defensive pieces most teams would take.
The Chargers rank 23rd in rush defense by DVOA and surrendered 213 rushing yards to Cleveland’s dynamic backfield. Los Angeles was fortunate to escape that game with a win, following questionable decision making inside their own territory late. Atlanta will be in their element at home, running 35+ times.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers’s last 9 games when playing Atlanta
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers’s last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
- Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
4* Free Week 9 NFL Betting Prediction: Falcons +3
This game will ultimately be determined by what the Falcons defense can do. The Chargers should be able to pass with ease in this game, which is far more explosive than running. Should the Chargers get out to an early lead, that’s a negative game script for the run, which knocks Atlanta out of their element.
However, if the Chargers get down quickly, the Falcons can happily bleed the clock. The Chargers represent a much better passing defense than Carolina, so if Atlanta has to resort to the passing game, it may be hard to come by points.
This pick is all about game flow. Having said that, in a perfect world we would live bet this game once we get a feel for where it’s headed. But my job is to give you pre-game predictions and my gut tells me that Atlanta catching points at home is the right call. They outpace the Chargers in offensive points per drive and should they get a lead they can hold it and burn the clock.
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