Free Week 12 Prediction: Falcons vs. Jaguars NFL Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars free NFL Week 12 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Jaguars on Sunday November 28th at TIAA Bank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 12 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta Jacksonville matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 12
(4-6) Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
Date: Sunday, November 28th, 2021
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
NFL Week 12 ATS Betting Lines: Falcons -1 (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 12 Moneyline Odds: Falcons -120| Jaguars -EVEN
NFL Week 12 NFL Betting Total: 46.5
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The public has to love Atlanta on Sunday, giving just a point to the lowly Jaguars even though it is on the road. That really says more about oddsmakers trust (or lack thereof) in Atlanta than the Jaguars, who lost by 20 at home to San Francisco last week.
The Falcons will be on the extra rest after their last game was a Thursday night 25-0 loss at home to New England. That followed a 43-3 loss to Dallas the game prior so it’s safe to say the Falcons offense is stalling right now. Even so, this is the Jaguars.
It’s hard to know how Atlanta can right this ship, because at 4-6 they are still just a game back of 5-5 Minnesota who currently has a hold of the second NFC wild card spot. The problem is there are 7 teams within that one game, so it would benefit the Falcons to go on a little roll here.
Scoring 3 points in two weeks isn’t going to win you many games in the NFL. The Falcons had just 165 yards of total offense in the loss to the Patriots, with Matt Ryan throwing for only 153 yards with 2 INTs. Ryan was just 9 of 21 for 117 yards and 2 INT in the loss to Dallas.
While the Falcons offense is struggling, this should be a get right week vs. the Jaguars who allowed 171 yards on the ground to San Francisco last week. Then again Atlanta has virtually no running game, ranking 3rd worst in the NFL with just 78.6 yards/game.
Another problem for Atlanta is that overall the Jacksonville defense hasn’t played bad recently. They had that impressive 9-6 win over Buffalo in week 9 and only lost 23-17 to the Colts in week 10.
The Falcons gave up a 22/26 passing day to Mac Jones in the Thursday night loss, so can Trevor Lawrence repeat that efficiency as a fellow rookie signal caller? That doesn’t seem likely, as Lawrence hasn’t throw a TD pass in three weeks – due his credit he also hasn’t thrown an INT over that span either.
What the Jaguars look to be doing right now is just being uber-conservative which is weird for a team that is 2-8 with nothing to lose. Way too early 2022 NFL mock drafts have it being very top heavy for defensive players so tanking isn’t really a wise strategy for a Jacksonville team trying to develop young talent.
The Jaguars ran the ball 16 times for 54 yards last week vs. San Francisco, and added just 146 through the air. Even Jacksonville’s 179 rush yards vs. the Colts the week prior look a lot different when you take away a 66-yard scamper from Jamal Agnew.
Atlanta has a not-good-but-not-horrible defense that is 20th in the NFL giving up 362.3 yards/game. What the Falcons do is allow a lot of points (28.8) but that’s not really a concern up against the Jaguars who are averaging barely over 10 ppg in their last four.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Falcons are 10-4 ATS last 14 vs. team with a losing record
- Falcons 2-5 ATS last 7 as a road favorite
- UNDER is 31-12 in Falcons last 43 in November
- Jaguars are 2-6 ATS last 8 home games
- UNDER is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 overall
4* Free Week 12 NFL Betting Prediction: Jaguars +1
It’s weird to see the Jaguars as just a +1 underdog, but this looks like their game to win. Ryan has been horrible the last two games and the Falcons defense hasn’t been much better.
The Falcons do have more to play for, but they could also be overlooking this game with Tampa Bay coming to town next week.
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