Free NFL Pick: Falcons vs. Packers Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Packers on 9/24 at Lambeau Field, in Green Bay on Amazon. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Falcons Packers matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers
Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime
(0-2) Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers (1-1)
Date: Sep 24, 2026
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI
NFL Moneyline Odds: Falcons +217 | Packers -265 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Falcons +5.5 | Packers -5.5
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 43.5
Here’s why I’m backing an Atlanta ATS bet below in my Falcons Packers free pick & gambling prediction for this Thursday night football matchup.
Falcons vs. Packers Gameday
Week 3 begins Thursday night with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video.
Atlanta arrives 0-2 under Kevin Stefanski after losses to Pittsburgh and Carolina. The Falcons managed only three points in Sunday’s 34-3 loss to the Panthers, and the passing game has been particularly rough through two weeks.
There is at least a significant change coming at quarterback.
Michael Penix Jr. has been named the starter for Thursday after missing the first two games while completing his recovery from last season’s knee injury.
Nothing cures an 0-2 start quite like changing quarterbacks and sending the new guy directly to Lambeau.
Green Bay is 1-1 after rallying past the Jets 20-17 on Sunday. The Packers opened with a 39-22 loss at Minnesota before Jordan Love helped erase a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit in New York.
Thursday also marks Green Bay’s home opener.
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The Falcons won the most recent meeting 25-24 in Atlanta in 2023, while Green Bay took the previous Lambeau matchup 30-16 in 2020.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Odds & Last 5
Green Bay is a 5.5-point home favorite, with the Packers around -262 on the moneyline and Atlanta around +214. The total sits at 43.5 after opening higher earlier in the week.
The Falcons are 0-2 straight up and against the spread. They lost 20-13 at Pittsburgh before Carolina handed them a considerably uglier seven-day follow-up.
Green Bay is also 0-2 against the spread despite splitting its first two games.
The Packers surrendered 39 points in Minnesota, then needed 13 unanswered fourth-quarter points to beat the Jets 20-17. That leaves both teams searching for their first cover Thursday night.
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Packers Stats
Green Bay has generated 618 total offensive yards through two games, including 489 through the air. The Packers have leaned heavily on Jordan Love while their running game has produced only 129 yards.
Christian Watson has provided the big-play punch with 188 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Matthew Golden has added 153 yards on 10 catches.
The Packers haven’t received much help from the ground game.
MarShawn Lloyd leads Green Bay with 57 rushing yards, while Chris Brooks has 40. That imbalance puts plenty on Love’s right arm against Atlanta.
Green Bay has found explosive plays through the air; finding a running game remains on the grocery list.
Defensively, the Packers have allowed 524 yards through two weeks. Seven sacks have helped offset some of the damage, although Minnesota still hung 39 points on Green Bay in the opener.
The short week also brings injury concerns.
Jayden Reed remained out of practice Tuesday with a neck injury, while Javon Hargrave was limited with knee and concussion issues. Aaron Banks and Zach Bako-Bewele also remained out.
Falcons Stats
Atlanta’s offense has scored only 16 points through two games, but the running game has at least provided something sturdy. Bijan Robinson has rushed for 155 yards on 37 carries and added a team-high 99 receiving yards.
Drake London has 80 receiving yards on six catches.
The passing game has been the obvious problem. Cooper Rush threw for 229 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions before Penix was named the Week 3 starter.
Atlanta has committed six turnovers while producing only one offensive touchdown.
Defensively, the Falcons have allowed 604 yards and six touchdowns. They were especially vulnerable through the air, surrendering 508 net passing yards across the first two games.
The secondary will also be missing a major piece.
A.J. Terrell Jr. was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with a groin injury, while Samson Ebukam remained out of practice with a hamstring issue.
Falcons vs. Packers QB Matchup
Jordan Love has thrown for 532 yards with four touchdowns and one interception through two games. He’s averaging 7.5 yards per attempt despite completing only 52.1% of his passes.
The explosive plays have mattered.
Love has already completed eight passes of at least 20 yards, with Watson and Golden giving Green Bay legitimate downfield threats. He’ll now make his first home start of the season against an Atlanta secondary missing Terrell.
Michael Penix Jr. presents a very different situation.
The Falcons officially named Penix their starter Monday, setting up his first regular-season action since last year’s knee injury. He was a full participant on both Monday’s estimated report and Tuesday’s practice report.
Obviously, Penix hasn’t taken a regular-season snap yet, so Thursday is our first real look at what Atlanta’s offense can be with him running the show.
Penix’s return instead gives Atlanta a chance to reset an offense that produced one touchdown and five interceptions with Rush and Jack Strand handling the first two games.
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Atlanta can help him by leaning on Robinson rather than asking Penix to rescue the offense immediately.
Green Bay has the continuity advantage with Love, but Penix brings considerably more upside than what Atlanta showed through the air during its 0-2 start.
His first assignment is hardly a gentle reintroduction.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers bottom line: Love gives Green Bay the proven early-season production and Lambeau advantage, while Penix gives Atlanta a badly needed reset at quarterback and makes Thursday’s matchup considerably more interesting than the Falcons’ first two offensive performances.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Football Betting Trends
- The Falcons have a strong record against the spread in away games, going 5-2 in their last 7 regular-season contests.
- Plus, the Falcons are 6-3 against the spread as underdogs over their last 9 regular-season games.
- In games following a loss, Atlanta has hit the over in 5 of their last 7 regular-season matchups.
- The Packers have gone over the total in all 3 of their games following a win in the last regular season.
- Green Bay has a 7-3 record straight up as favorites in their last 10 regular-season games.
- Additionally, the Packers have hit the over in 7 of their last 10 games as favorites during the regular season.
Falcons Packers Free Pick: Falcons +5.5
Here is my Falcons Packers free pick: I’m taking Falcons +5.5. Michael Penix Jr. returning changes the offensive ceiling for Atlanta, and getting more than a field goal gives me enough room to back that upside without asking the Falcons to win at Lambeau.
Green Bay is also playing its first home game after opening with consecutive road trips. The Packers haven’t exactly been dominant, and laying 5.5 with a team that needed a late rally to escape New York isn’t a number I’m eager to chase.
Atlanta doesn’t need to fix everything Thursday night; it needs to stay close to Green Bay.
The matchup also gives Bijan a chance to take pressure off Penix. Atlanta has run the ball effectively through two weeks, and a productive ground game is exactly what I want when taking points with a quarterback making his season debut.
The Pack deserves to be favored at Lambeau. I simply don’t need the Dirty Birds to be better for four quarters.
I need them to avoid getting buried, and 5.5 gives me enough protection to take that shot.
Take the Falcons +5.5.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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Green Bay Packers on X
Lambeau, we need you LOUD pic.twitter.com/jo2lS1MSnA
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 23, 2026
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