Free NFL Week 17 Pick: Falcons vs. Bears Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears free NFL Week 17 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Bears on Sunday, December 31st at the Soldier Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 17 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta Chicago matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 17
(7-8) Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears (6-9)
ATS: Falcons 5-10, Bears 7-7-1.
Date: Sunday, December 31st
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago IL
NFL Week 17 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Atlanta +3 | Chicago -3
Week 17 NFL Moneyline Odds: Atlanta +127 | Chicago -157
NFL Betting Total: O/U 38
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Head-to-Head the Bears lead 15-14. In their recent Atlanta clash on Nov. 20, 2022, Falcons won 27-24.
With a combined 51 points, the Falcons and Bears surpassed the over/under line of 48.5. The Falcons covered the spread in this matchup.
In the win, the Falcons racked up 280 yards of total offense compared to the Bears at 288. The Falcons rushed for 149 yards and threw for 131 in the game.
Last week, Falcons beat the Colts 29-10, while the Bears triumphed 27-16 against Arizona.
The Bears defense is top notch, but you don’t need me to tell you that. Their defense has been staunch, making it challenging for opponents to score.
They’ve allowed only 17.2 PPG in their 4-2 SU run and a mere 13.5 PPG in their 4-0 home streak.
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Atlanta Falcons
In the NFC-South standings, the Falcons are in 2nd place with a record of 7-8. Within the NFC, Atlanta is 9th, heading into week 17.
The team comes in with an ATS mark of 5-10.
In the Falcons’ win over the Colts, the Falcons did a good job moving the ball against the Colts defense, finishing with 23 first-downs and racking up 406 yards of offense.
Defensively, the Falcons allowed a total of 262 yards of offense to the Colts. Going into the game, Atlanta was favored by 3 and went on to cover the spread.
Taylor Heinicke threw for 229 yards while completing 69% of his passes and throwing for 229. Heinicke threw for one touchdown.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Atlanta’s offense finished with 406 yards of total offense vs. the Colts. On third down, the Falcons converted at a rate of 38.5%.
Bijan Robinson was the Falcons’ top rusher with 72 yards while Heinicke threw for 229 yards.
For this season, the Atlanta offense has an average of 19.1 points per game, placing them at 21st in the league.
The Falcons’ defense has, on average, allowed 308.4 yards and 19.2 points per contest (6th). Leading up to this game, they’ve permitted a 60.9% completion rate and yielded 19 passing touchdowns.
In terms of run defense, they rank 15th in the NFL.
Chicago Bears
Having played 15 games, the Bears have a record of 6-9. This puts them at 4th in the NFC-North and 12th in the NFC. The Bears’ have a scoring margin of -2.1 this season, which has led to an ATS record of 7-6-2.
On offense, the Bears racked up 420 yards in their 27-16 win over the Cardinals.
For the game, the Bears ran for 250 yards on an average of 6.4 yards per attempt. Defensively, they allowed 306 yards of total offense with 213 yards coming through the air and 93 on the ground.
Going into the game, Chicago was favored by 4.5 and went on to cover the spread.
Justin Fields threw for one touchdown and ran for 1 score. Fields completed 55% of his passes for 170 yards.
Chicago Bears Stats
Facing the Cardinals, the Bears rushed the ball 39 times, with Khalil Herbert leading the team with 112 yards. Fields attempted 27 passes, accumulating 170 yards and a passer rating of 71.
The Chicago offense is currently positioned 19th in the league, scoring an average of 20.9 points per contest.
When it comes to defense, the Bears have given up 237.5 passing yards and 80.7 rushing yards per game.
In terms of sacks, Chicago ranks 18th among other defenses. Coming into week 17, they have allowed 23 points per game and 318.1 yards.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Falcons are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bears are 1-2-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bears have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Falcons’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Bears’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Falcons vs. Bears Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Falcons | +112 | +127 | +2.5 | +3 |
Bears | -133 | -157 | -2.5 | -3 |
4* Free Week 17 NFL Betting Prediction: Chicago -3
Despite Fields’ 21st ranking in passer rating and 28th in completion percentage, there’s still reason to trust him this week.
With the Bears coming off a game in which they racked up 22 first downs on offense, I like them to ride that momentum to a big win over the Falcons.
The Sunday X-Factor will undoubtedly be the Bears’ defense. Their defensive statistics are impressive, with an overall rank of 12th, a top-ranked rush defense, a 25th rank in passing, and a tie for 21st in scoring defense.
I recommend locking in the Bears at 3.
If you’re looking for a pick on the over/under, the data we have suggests this game finishing below 38 points.
For this game, my money is on the under.
Atlanta has seen a penchant for UNDER outcomes, with 4 of their last 5 and 8 of their last 9 December games staying UNDER.
Similarly, Chicago has also witnessed UNDER trends, with 6 of their last 8 games and 9 of their last 12 against Atlanta falling BELOW the total score.
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Falcons Bears NFL Handicapping
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Coach Flus was rocking the 🎙️ for our Week 16 win
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) December 29, 2023
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