Free NFL Pick: Falcons vs. Cardinals Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Cardinals on 12/21 at State Farm Stadium, in Arizona. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Falcons Cardinals matchup.
2025 NFL Handicapping – Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals
(5-9) Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
Date: Dec 21, 2025
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Venue: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
NFL Moneyline Odds: Falcons -153 | Cardinals +130 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Falcons -2.5 | Cardinals +2.5
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 48
Here’s why I’m backing an OVER bet below in my Falcons Cardinals free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Falcons vs. Cardinals Gameday
Week 16 sends the Atlanta Falcons west to State Farm Stadium for a matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. The Falcons arrive at 5-9, still clinging to postseason math that technically exists. Arizona sits at 3-11, firmly in evaluation mode but still capable of making life uncomfortable for visitors. Clear skies are expected in Glendale, which at least removes weather from the list of excuses.
Atlanta comes in feeling better after a tight 29-28 win over Tampa Bay. The offense finally looked alive, with Kyle Pitts Sr. torching the Buccaneers for 166 yards and three touchdowns.
Kirk Cousins was sharp, throwing for 373 yards without a turnover, which is exactly the version of him the Falcons were hoping for when the season started.
Arizona, meanwhile, continues searching for positives. They dropped their most recent game to the Houston Texans, but Trey McBride was outstanding, piling up 134 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
The Cardinals are just 1-6 at home, though at this point the focus is less on record and more on seeing who fits moving forward.
Week 16, Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals, and both teams are trying to finish the season with something resembling momentum.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds & Last 5
Oddsmakers lean toward Atlanta, listing the Falcons at -153 on the moneyline, with Arizona coming back at +129. The spread sits at Falcons -2.5, while the total is set at 48.0, suggesting points should be available if offenses cooperate.
Atlanta’s recent results have been uneven. They escaped Tampa Bay by a point, but were blown out 37-9 by Seattle the week before. The ceiling is clearly there, but consistency remains optional.
Arizona has been stuck in a rough stretch, dropping five straight games. Their most recent loss to Houston was another reminder that defensive lapses tend to snowball quickly.
Still, previous meetings between these teams have been tight, including a 25-23 Cardinals win in November 2023.
Cardinals Stats
Arizona’s defense has been under pressure most of the season. They’ve allowed 379 points, but do rank 8th in sacks with 41, showing they can still disrupt quarterbacks when opportunities arise.
Unfortunately, those moments haven’t translated into wins lately.
Offensively, Jacoby Brissett has been steady. He’s thrown for 2,708 yards and 18 touchdowns, keeping the offense functional even when protection breaks down. The run game has taken a hit due to injuries, with James Conner and Bam Knight sidelined, leaving Michael Carter to carry the load.
Trey McBride has been the clear bright spot, leading the team with 1,071 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. When Arizona moves the ball, it usually runs through him.
Depth remains an issue, though, with multiple contributors either out or limited.
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Falcons Stats
Atlanta’s offense has flashed upside all season without fully cashing in. They rank 5th in passing yards at 4,068 and 10th in rushing at 2,219, which looks great on paper.
Defensively, however, they sit 23rd in opponent yards allowed, making shootouts far more likely than the coaching staff would prefer.
Kirk Cousins has split time this season but has been productive when on the field, throwing for 1,218 yards and six touchdowns. Bijan Robinson continues to be the engine of the offense, rushing for 1,174 yards and giving Atlanta a reliable foundation.
Injuries remain a concern. Michael Penix Jr. and Zach Harrison are out for the season, while Drake London and Mike Hughes are listed day-to-day.
Availability could play a big role in how aggressive Atlanta can be offensively.
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Falcons vs. Cardinals QB Matchup
Jacoby Brissett has handled the Cardinals’ offense with a steady hand. Over 11 games, Brissett has totaled 2,708 passing yards with 18 TD’s & 6 INT’s.
He’s not flashy, but he’s kept Arizona competitive in stretches.
Brissett is projected to throw for around 242 yards with nearly two touchdowns in this matchup. Protecting the football will be critical, especially against a Falcons defense that thrives on pressure.
Kirk Cousins leads Atlanta when healthy and is expected to be active. In eight games, he’s thrown for 1,218 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions. His chemistry with Kyle Pitts Sr. has been improving, which gives Atlanta a clear advantage when the offense is clicking.
Cousins is projected for roughly 236 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns. If he avoids mistakes, Atlanta should control the tempo.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals bottom line: Atlanta has more offensive firepower, but if the Falcons fall back into inconsistency, Arizona has enough playmakers to keep this uncomfortably close.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals Football Betting Trends
- The Falcons have a 4-1 record against the spread in their last 5 away games.
- In their last 3 games as favorites, Atlanta have a 2-0-1 record for the over/under.
- Also, the Falcons have hit the over in 4 of their last 5 away games.
- The Cardinals have hit the over in all 5 of their recent home games.
- Additionally, Arizona have an 8-2 record for the over/under in their last 10 games.
- In their last 6 games as underdogs, the Cardinals have hit the over 5 times.
Falcons Cardinals Free Pick: Over 48
Here is my Falcons Cardinals free pick: Atlanta games have turned into scoreboard chases whenever they leave home. Four of their last five road games sailing over isn’t subtle.
The Falcons tend to stay aggressive away from home, even when holding a lead. That mindset keeps drives alive and totals climbing.
Arizona has been even louder in this department at home, cashing the over in five straight games. Whatever the matchup, points seem to follow them in their own building. The Cardinals don’t shut games down, especially as underdogs.
They’re far more comfortable trading scores than trying to grind clocks.
Atlanta as a favorite also leans toward offense-first football. Because they’re willing to stay open, defensive lapses don’t slow the pace much.
When neither team wants to hit the brakes, totals don’t wait around.
Both sides have shown a willingness to keep throwing and pushing tempo late. That’s a dangerous mix for an under ticket.
This total isn’t asking for perfection, just continuity. Long drives, quick replies, and a couple short fields usually do the trick.
At the end of the day, the trends line up cleanly with how these teams actually play. Road overs meet home overs. Over 48 is the play. Let both offenses stay comfortable.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
The State Farm Stadium roof is expected to be open for Sunday’s game when we host the Falcons. #ATLvsAZ pic.twitter.com/0NcniCWWqy
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) December 20, 2025
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