Free NCAA Hoops Pick: Nittany Lions vs. Boilermakers CBB Odds
Looking for Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers NCAA basketball free picks & CBB odds? CBB betting sees the Nittany Lions taking on the Boilermakers on Tuesday February 10 at the Mackey Arena. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all college basketball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily basketball predictions like this Nittany Lions Boilermakers matchup.
2019-2020 NCAA Basketball
(18-5) Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers (14-10)
Date: Tuesday February 11
Time: 6:30 PM ET
Venue: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
CBB Moneyline Odds: OFF
CBB Betting Odds: Purdue -5.5
CBB Betting Total: 134.5
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This will be the first of three solid Big Ten matchups on Tuesday night.
I like the Big Ten. Very much. Let’s gamble on it.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is a VERY LEGIT team.
The Nittany Lions are coming off six straight excellent wins, including home wins over Minnesota and Ohio state, and road wins over Michigan and Michigan State. Good stuff.
This stretch has propelled them into second place in the Big Ten, 12th in the AP Poll, and a projected five seed in the tournament.
Their success has come from their fast-paced offense and their stifling defense. They are top-50 in KenPom adjusted tempo, average possession length, and points/game. On the other side of the ball, they are top-25 in the nation in effective FG% against, 2pt FG% against, Block% and Steal%.
In terms of player personnel, Senior forward Lamar Stevens is averaging 17/7 on 45% from the field while also adding a block and a steal.
Penn State should be considered a dark horse Final Four contender come March. Probably the most impressive part of this run is that they’re doing it in this conference. The Big Ten this year is easily the deepest and most competitive it has been in years, and there’s a potential that 12 of the 14 Big Ten teams will make the Dance.
Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions are blowing right through it.
I thought for sure that the Boilermakers were going to drop that road game to Indiana. Instead, they locked up their third straight win.
It was a huge win for a squad that, before this game, had struggled mightily on the road. I actually had a friend tell me Purdue was “the worst road team in the country.” I agreed at the time, but I don’t know how I feel about that take anymore.
Their defense is really, really good. The Boilermakers rank top-10 in KenPom adjusted defense, points allowed per game, and 3pt% against (28.6). Also, their average possession length against is 18.6 seconds, which is longer than 347 of the 353 D-I NCAA basketball teams.
They have their struggles on offense, which includes poor efficiency and an inability to get to the line. However, they don’t turn the ball over and they’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. In fact, they have the highest OR% of any team in the Big Ten! Who woulda thought.
They also have precisely zero guys who score. Trevion Williams leads the team in PPG, with ELEVEN. But, they’re shooting the three ball pretty well, especially in recent weeks, and have shown that when they get hot, they can score a lot (See: 104 points against Iowa two weeks ago).
Free Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers NCAAB Prediction:
This game is close. About as tight as it gets between two teams.
Penn State is second in the Big Ten, while Purdue is just a game back of them. Purdue is the 13th-ranked KenPom team, while Penn State is the 14th. Purdue has the 10th-ranked KenPom adjusted defense, while Penn State has the 15th-ranked one.
Penn State’s road ATS stats are really good (11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 road games), while Purdue’s home ATS stats are also really good (18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games).
If this was on a neutral court, I’d say this is a pick ’em. Instead, the home side is giving four points here in early openings. Which I think is too much.
The Boilermakers didn’t win at Indiana… Indiana lost at home. That was a letdown performance by a Hoosiers team that is now, officially, on the bubble. Additionally, Purdue’s blowout win over Iowa came on a night where they made nineteen threes on thirty-four attempts. They have to come down to earth eventually.
Meanwhile, Penn State is winning every game in decisive fashion, against really good opponents, on the road and at home. Their average margin of victory over their six game win streak? It’s 10.2.
That’s legit dominance. Going to take the Nittany lions and the points.
4* Free CBB Betting Pick: Penn State +5.5
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