Free Pick: Spurs vs. Thunder Odds
Looking for San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Spurs taking on the Thunder on 5/26 at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Spurs Thunder free pick.
2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder
(2-2) San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder (2-2)
Date: May 26, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
NBA Moneyline Odds: Spurs +175 | Thunder -190 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Spurs +5.5 | Thunder -5.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 215.5
Here’s why I’m backing the hometown favorites in my Spurs Thunder free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Spurs vs. Thunder Gameday
Game 5 between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals tips off on Tuesday at 8:30.
The teams are all even as San Antonio responded to a loss by winning 103-82 in Game 4. Now it’s a best-of-three series as the teams head back to OKC.
Four Spurs scored in double figures, led by Victor Wembanyama with 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and five stocks.
It was a rough night for the Thunder, who had their poorest performance of the postseason from a shooting and defensive perspective. Five players scored in double figures, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 19 points, four rebounds, and seven assists.
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San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder Odds & Last 5
Last year, the Thunder won the season series two games to one over the Spurs. In this campaign, the squads were scheduled to play four times, but because of the NBA Cup, they played five times in total, with the Spurs thumping them four games to one.
San Antonio has three losses through two series, having beaten the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1 and the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2.
Meanwhile, OKC has yet to lose this postseason, sweeping both the Phoenix Suns and the LA Lakers. With the Thunder finishing with a record of 64-18, they hold home court throughout the playoffs.
And, since the Spurs finished 62-20, they hold the second-best record and therefore whichever team wins this series will have home court advantage in the NBA Finals.
OKC is favored by 5.5 points with an over/under of 215.5 points.
Spurs Stats
San Antonio ranks fifth offensively (118.6) and third defensively (110.2), while it is second in net rating (+8.5) and 12th in pace (100.72).
The West’s second seed averages 119.7 points per game while its opponents average 111.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, San Antonio averages 28.1 (ninth) and 47.1 (second), respectively.
San Antonio’s team leaders* are Victor Wembanyama, who tops the Spurs in scoring (24.8 points), rebounding (11.5), and **blocks (3.1), while Stephon Castle leads in assists (7.4) and in steals (1.1).
As for perimeter shooting, the Spurs have five players shooting above the league average, but as a team, they shoot 35.9%.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
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Thunder Stats
OKC ranks seventh (117.9) on offense and first on defense (105.9). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+12.0) and run the 15th-ranked pace (100.37).
The NBA’s top team averages 119.4 points per game while its opponents average 107.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.6 (18th) and 44.2 (13th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.1 points) as well as for assists (6.6), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (9.4), Cason Wallace for steals (1.9), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.9).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shoot above league average, with the team shooting 36.5% overall.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder bottom line:
Injuries have taken a toll, and it showed for the Thunder in Game 4, with both AJ Mitchell and Jalen Williams out.
The big question is whether SGA can deal with the extra defensive attention and physicality to deliver a game where he dictates the outcome.
Notably, Chet Holmgren has yet to show up and put his mark on any game in this series, and you have to wonder if Wemby is occupying a place in his head!
San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder Basketball Betting Trends
- San Antonio is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Antonio’s last 9 games.
- San Antonio is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against Oklahoma City.
- Also, Oklahoma City is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City’s last 7 games.
- Additionally, Oklahoma City is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home.
Spurs Thunder Free Pick: Thunder -5.5
Here is my Spurs Thunder free pick. From the start, this series has felt like it would go the distance, and nothing has changed that narrative.
Certainly, Wemby has dominated in the two games the Spurs have won, while I’d argue SGA has done the same in the Thunder’s two wins, albeit at a lower field goal percentage than normal.
Entering Game 5, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are NOT listed on the injury report, whereas JDub and Mitchell are. OKC has won via their depth, but the question entering Game 5 is whether the “others” are getting worn out or the moment is too big for them.
Conversely, the Spurs showed their inexperience in Game 3, so the question is whether that dynamic will arise again.
This series has the potential to be even more entertaining and competitive than the ultimate NBA Final. To wit, the team that wins the Western Conference Finals will likely be favored to win the Larry O’B trophy.
Throw out Game 4 in terms of what to expect from OKC, who are known to bounce back after subpar efforts. I’d expect we’ll witness that production being much improved in Game 4.
The bigger question is whether Williams or Mitchell will be available, as they provide another ball handler to help spell SGA from being the primary ball distributor. And, will the OKC bench return to their nuclear level as they’ve outperformed the Spurs in all but one game?
Regardless of the answer to the above questions, I’m rolling with the Thunder to respond to the loss with a big win on their court, so take them to win and cover.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
The Thunder have dominated the non-Wemby minutes in this series.
OKC is +38 with Victor Wembanyama on the bench, while being outscored by 21 with him on the floor. The Thunder have also shot 21% better when Wemby sits, with their average shot attempt coming from 3 feet closer to… pic.twitter.com/8GPsibQ9qC
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) May 24, 2026
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