Free Pick: 76ers vs. Celtics Odds
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2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
(3-3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics (3-3)
Date: May 2, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA
NBA Moneyline Odds: 76ers +450 | Celtics -516 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: 76ers +7.5 | Celtics -7.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 206.5
Here’s why I’m picking the visiting underdogs, as outlined in my 76ers Celtics free pick & gambling prediction for Game 5 of the East’s #2 vs. #7 NBA playoffs matchup.
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76ers vs. Celtics Gameday
Saturday offers up just one game on the slate as the #7 Philadelphia 76ers and #2 Boston Celtics go at it in Game 7 of their first-round series of the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
Philly forced this match, winning Game 6 by a score of 106-93. All five starters scored in double figures, led by Tyrese Maxey with 30 points. Paul George had arguably his best game in the series with 23 points, four rebounds, three assists, two steals, a block, and connected on five 3-pointers.
Four Celtics served up double-digit efforts, led by Jaylen Brown with 18 points on 7 of 17 from the field, while Jayson Tatum exited the match with an apparent leg (calf) issue.
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics Odds & Last 5
The clubs played to a draw this season, with each side collecting two wins. This series has by far the most history between the clubs (and in NBA history), with this series being the 24th postseason meeting. Boston has the upper hand, winning 15 of those series, including the last six.
Coming into the playoffs, the 76ers have won their last three matches, but this followed a cold spell of three losses and a middling stretch. While it appeared the Sixers could be the dark horse in the East, those projections quickly vanished with news that Joel Embiid would be out after suffering appendicitis.
In direct contrast, the Celtics got a huge shot in the arm with the earlier-than-anticipated return of Jayson Tatum. Boston finished the season on a 13-4 run, propelling them into a narrative of being the best team in the East.
The Celtics are favored to win Game seven by 7.5 points with an over/under of 206.5 points.
76ers Stats
Philly ranks 16th offensively (114.3), tied for 16th defensively (114.4), while producing the 18th-best net rating (-0.1), running a pace of 100.40, which ranks 15th overall.
The East’s seventh-place Sixers average 115.9 points per game while their opponents average 116.1 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Philly averages 24.6 (tied for 29th) and 43.6 (17th), respectively.
Team leaders* in key categories are Tyrese Maxey for scoring (28.3 points), assists (6.6), and steals (1.9), Andre Drummond for rebounds (8.4), and Adem Bona for blocks (1.2).
Perimeter shooting fluctuates for Philly, but they offer five players who shoot league average or better, while the team shoots 34.9%.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
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Celtics Stats
Boston ranks second offensively (120.1), fourth defensively (111.8), and fourth in net rating (+8.3) while running a pace of 95.46, which ranks 30th in the association.
The East’s second-place Celtics average 24.7 assists (27th) and 46.4 rebounds (third). Boston scores 114.9 points per game while its opponents average 107.1 points.
Team leaders* in the key categories are Jaylen Brown for scoring (28.7 points), Neemias Queta for rebounds (8.4), while Derrick White is tops in assists (5.4), blocks (1.3), and steals (1.1).
Seven Celtics shoot above league average from the perimeter while the team averages 36.7% from deep.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics bottom line:
In history, 37 teams have forced a Game 7 after trailing in the series 1-3. Only 12 teams have completed the mission, so the odds favor the Celtics.
Many pundits have pointed to Joel Embiid’s return as the key to why Philly is winning, but a huge key is tied to pace. Boston played with the slowest pace in the season, so with Maxey, Edgecombe, and George all pushing pace, it’s thrown off the Celts.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics Basketball Betting Trends
- Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia’s last 11 games.
- Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Boston.
- Also, Boston is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games.
- Additionally, Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
76ers Celtics Free Pick: 76ers +7.5
Here is my 76ers Celtics free pick.
The elephant in the room for the Celtics is whether Jayson Tatum will play, and if he can, how healthy is he? Couple that with a poor Game 6 effort from Jaylen Brown, and you have to wonder how much trouble the team most pundits picked to win the East is in.
Boston loves to play with their food and seems to fall into a trap of losing games it should win to finish the series, as it has on several previous occasions.
Joe Mazzulla will surely fall under the microscope if they end up losing, but in fairness, this series has highlighted why Boston wasn’t earmarked as a favorite to start the season.
Sure, Tatum was out, and Brown was in the MVP conversation, but we can’t ignore how far Derrick White has fallen off when it comes to his shooting and specifically his perimeter shot.
Boston, however, continues to play to their identity with copious 3-point shots going up, and even when they aren’t falling, they’ve refused to adapt. The Celts also struggled mightily from the charity stripe, shooting just 56% in Game 6.
Clutch time could be a thing, as the 76ers are great in that timeframe (56.1%), but the question is whether Philly can even get Boston into the clutch.
Boston shot 29% from deep in Game 6, yet attempted 41 shots from the perimeter. Combine that with the 76ers’ speed and getting into the paint, and this sure feels like it will come down to clutch time to determine who advances.
Despite all the problems the Celtics have had, I refuse to believe Mazzulla won’t adapt, and even if Tatum can’t go, I like them to win, just not by the spread allotted.
Therefore, take the points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
“I believe that the Philadelphia 76ers are gonna upset the Boston Celtics.”@KendrickPerkins has his eyes on the 76ers 👀 pic.twitter.com/m9i58S0yCa
— First Take (@FirstTake) May 1, 2026
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