Free Pick: Thunder vs. Spurs Odds
Looking for OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Thunder taking on the Spurs on 5/24 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Thunder Spurs free pick.
2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – OKC Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
(2-1) OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs (1-2)
Date: May 24, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
NBA Moneyline Odds: Thunders +120 | Spurs -135 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Thunder +2.5 | Spurs -2.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 219.5
Here’s why I’m backing the visiting underdog as outlined below in my Thunder Spurs free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Thunder vs. Spurs Gameday
On Sunday, the Western Conference Finals continue between the OKC Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. OKC took the series lead with a 123-108 victory in Game 3.
Six Thunder players scored in double figures, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 26 points and 12 assists. The bench was the key, however, as they outscored the Spurs reserves 76-23.
All five Spurs starters scored in double-figures, led by Victor Wembanyama who scored 26 points and grabbed four rebounds.
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OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds & Last 5
Last year, the Thunder won the season series two games to one over the Spurs. In this campaign, the squads were scheduled to play four times, but because of the NBA Cup, they played five times in total, with the Spurs thumping them four games to one.
San Antonio has three losses through two series, having beaten the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1 and the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2.
Meanwhile, OKC has yet to lose this postseason, sweeping both the Phoenix Suns and the LA Lakers. With the Thunder finishing with a record of 64-18, they hold home court throughout the playoffs.
And, since the Spurs finished 62-20, they hold the second-best record and therefore whichever team wins this series will have home court advantage in the NBA Finals.
The oddsmakers are favoring the Thunder to win by 2.5 points with an over/under of 219.5 points.
Thunder Stats
OKC ranks seventh (117.9) on offense and first on defense (105.9). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+12.0) and run the 15th-ranked pace (100.37).
The NBA’s top team averages 119.4 points per game while its opponents average 107.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.6 (18th) and 44.2 (13th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.1 points) as well as for assists (6.6), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (9.4), Cason Wallace for steals (1.9), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.9).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shoot above league average, with the team shooting 36.5% overall.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
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Spurs Stats
San Antonio ranks fifth offensively (118.6) and third defensively (110.2), while it is second in net rating (+8.5) and 12th in pace (100.72).
The West’s second seed averages 119.7 points per game while its opponents average 111.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, San Antonio averages 28.1 (ninth) and 47.1 (second), respectively.
San Antonio’s team leaders* are Victor Wembanyama, who tops the Spurs in scoring (24.8 points), rebounding (11.5), and **blocks (3.1), while Stephon Castle leads in assists (7.4) and in steals (1.1).
As for perimeter shooting, the Spurs have five players shooting above the league average, but as a team, they shoot 35.9%.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs bottom line:
Just like the prior game, injuries have become a major factor with core talent either out or playing banged up.
De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper played but were clearly hobbled. It showed in how they both refused to attack the paint like they typically do.
Jalen Williams was out and will likely sit again. Ajay Mitchell is banged up (calf) and will miss Game 4 with that injury.
What the injuries highlighted was just how deep the Thunder are and why that advantage should find them moving on to the Finals.
OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Basketball Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City’s last 6 games.
- Oklahoma City is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
- Also, San Antonio is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Antonio’s last 8 games.
- Additionally, San Antonio is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home.
Thunder Spurs Free Pick: Thunder +2.5
Here is my Thunder Spurs free pick.
OKC won the rebounding battle for the first time in the series, and it highlighted how the Thunder are playing Wembanyama. The Thunder are playing him physically, but also make a point to keep him in front of themselves or push him under the basket. That strategy is to help avoid lob scores and to free up the room under the basket for rebounding.
This series has the potential to be even more entertaining and competitive than the ultimate NBA Final. To wit, the team that wins the Western Conference Finals will likely be favored to win the Larry O’B trophy.
While the Spurs are certainly not out of the series and a win today would even things up, it does feel like Game 3 punctuated why the Thunder are favored.
Their depth is just so much greater, and with the combination of injuries taking a toll, it stands out even more.
Although I expect the Spurs to come back with vengeance today, I still think the Thunder prevail as they eye the East and recognize they need to wrap up this series sooner rather than later.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Ajay Mitchell has been ruled out for Game 4 against the San Antonio Spurs with a right calf strain.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) May 23, 2026
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