Free Pick: Thunder vs. Spurs Odds
Looking for OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Thunder taking on the Spurs on 5/22 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Thunder Spurs free pick.
2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – OKC Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
(1-1) OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs (1-1)
Date: May 22, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
NBA Moneyline Odds: Thunders +105 | Spurs -122 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Thunder +2 | Spurs -2
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 217.5
Here’s why I’m backing the visiting underdog as outlined below in my Thunder Spurs free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Thunder vs. Spurs Gameday
On Friday, the Western Conference Finals shift to Texas as the OKC Thunder and San Antonio Spurs tip off at 8:30 p.m. OKC evened up the series with a 122-113 victory in Game 2.
Seven Thunder players scored in double figures, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 30 points, nine assists, four rebounds, and three stocks. Isaiah Hartenstein bounced back with a strong effort defending Wembanyama, along with a 10-point, 13-rebound double-double.
Five Spurs scored in double-figures, led by Stephon Castle with 25 points and eight assists, but also nine turnovers. Victor Wembanyama collected a double-double of 21 points and 17 rebounds.
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OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds & Last 5
Last year, the Thunder won the season series two games to one over the Spurs. In this campaign, the squads were scheduled to play four times, but because of the NBA Cup, they played five times in total, with the Spurs thumping them four games to one.
San Antonio has three losses through two series, having beaten the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1 and the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2.
Meanwhile, OKC has yet to lose this postseason, sweeping both the Phoenix Suns and the LA Lakers. With the Thunder finishing with a record of 64-18, they hold home court throughout the playoffs.
And, since the Spurs finished 62-20, they hold the second-best record and therefore whichever team wins this series will have home court advantage in the NBA Finals.
The oddsmakers are favoring the Spurs to win by two points with an over/under of 217.5 points.
Thunder Stats
OKC ranks seventh (117.9) on offense and first on defense (105.9). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+12.0) and run the 15th-ranked pace (100.37).
The NBA’s top team averages 119.4 points per game while its opponents average 107.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.6 (18th) and 44.2 (13th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.1 points) as well as for assists (6.6), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (9.4), Cason Wallace for steals (1.9), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.9).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shoot above league average, with the team shooting 36.5% overall.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
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Spurs Stats
San Antonio ranks fifth offensively (118.6) and third defensively (110.2), while it is second in net rating (+8.5) and 12th in pace (100.72).
The West’s second seed averages 119.7 points per game while its opponents average 111.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, San Antonio averages 28.1 (ninth) and 47.1 (second), respectively.
San Antonio’s team leaders* are Victor Wembanyama, who tops the Spurs in scoring (24.8 points), rebounding (11.5), and **blocks (3.1), while Stephon Castle leads in assists (7.4) and in steals (1.1).
As for perimeter shooting, the Spurs have five players shooting above the league average, but as a team, they shoot 35.9%.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs bottom line:
Injuries are the key as the series progresses. Both sides could be missing core players as San Antonio deals with De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, both questionable, while the Thunder awaits news on Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell.
If all four are out, the advantage shifts to the Thunder, who regularly utilize their reserves deeper into the rotation than the Spurs.
OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Basketball Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City’s last 5 games.
- Oklahoma City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games.
- Also, San Antonio is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio’s last 7 games.
- Additionally, San Antonio is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home.
Thunder Spurs Free Pick: Thunder +2
Here is my Thunder Spurs free pick.
One of the biggest shifts was rebounding, where the Spurs had crushed OKC 61-40 in Game 1, but that was closer to even as the Spurs won 45-41 in Game 2.
Turnovers continue to be a major problem for San Antonio and, in particular, Castle, who has 20 miscues through two games. As a team, the Spurs coughed up the ball 21 times, leading to 21 points, which was 17 more than they scored off the OKC turnovers.
This series has the potential to be even more entertaining and competitive than the ultimate NBA Final. To wit, the team that wins the Western Conference Finals will likely be favored to win the Larry O’B trophy.
After the first match, some felt Hartenstein was unplayable, but Mark Daigneault stuck to his game plan, actually increasing his presence on Wemby, and it paid massive dividends.
With the shift to San Antonio, the big man might not get as much leeway in terms of how physical he plays Wemby, so keep an eye on the whistle early.
I feel sort of blind making this prediction without clarification on the four injured players, but since the Thunder have regularly gone deeper into their rotation. I’ll take the points and the Thunder to take Game 3.
CAVEAT: if Fox and Harper play, but either or both of JDub and Mitchell are out, shift to the Spurs winning and covering.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Gilbert Arenas says it’s a positive loss for the Spurs:
“You’re okay with this outcome, right? You had 21 turnovers. You know, my main guard had nine. He matched OKC, but they out rebounded us on the offensive end, which Wemby will take responsibility for that and say, “Hey,… pic.twitter.com/KEyczcQz02
— NBA Courtside (@NBA__Courtside) May 21, 2026
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