Free NBA Pick: Heat vs. Warriors Odds
Looking for Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Warriors on November 5th at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA. This free NBA basketball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Heat Warriors matchup.
2026 NBA Handicapping – Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
Heat +7.5 | Warriors -7.5Here’s why I’m backing Golden State ATS in my Heat Warriors free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Heat vs. Warriors Gameday
Miami travels to Golden State on November 5th for an NBA matchup at Chase Center. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 ET, with both teams eager to ascend the rankings ladder.
Per John Schuhmann: Cue the GIF of WWE’s The Undertaker rising up off the mat. After a 0-3 Week 1, the Warriors have won four straight games. The first three came against other teams — the Nuggets, Wolves and Lakers — with winning records, and their win over the Clippers on Sunday came without Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.
Neither team began the season how they wanted, but while the Warriors are on a five-game winning streak, the Heat are still struggling.
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Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Odds & Previous Games
Historically, the teams have played a total of 75 times, with the Warriors owning a slim 38-37 win margin. Last year, the teams split the regular season series.
Miami is completing a back-to-back set, having won 117-116 on Wednesday versus the Clippers. Golden State has the rest advantage, having last played on Monday, defeating the Suns 116-113.
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Heat Stats
Miami ranked 12th (115.8) offensively, was tied for 13th defensively (113.6), 13th in net rating (+2.1), and ran with a pace of 104.23, which ranked first overall.
The East’s tenth seed averaged 120.9 points per game, while its opponents averaged 118.5 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Miami averaged 29.0 (fifth) and 46.3 (fourth), respectively.
Defensively the Heat have struggled particularly when Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo are both on the court (136 points per 100 possessions) versus 113.2 per 100 when it’s just one of them on the hardwood (per John Schuhmann).
Miami’s team leaders were Norman Powell for scoring (21.7 points), Davion Mitchell for assists (6.5), Bam Adebayo for rebounds (10.0), and Andrew Wiggins for blocks (1.0), while Dru Smith led with 1.4 steals.
Perimeter shooting was a strength for the Heat, who had eight* players shooting above the league average while the team averaged 36.1%.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
Warriors Stats
Golden State ranked 19th (113.8) on offense and tied for 16th on defense (114.4). Additionally, the Dubs were 20th in net rating (-0.5) and ran the 18th quickest pace (100.05).
The West’s 10th seed averaged 114.6 points per game while its opponents averaged 115.2 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Golden State averaged 28.9 (fifth) and 42.3 (tied for 22nd), respectively.
Team leaders* for key categories were Stephen Curry for scoring (26.6), Draymond Green for rebounding (5.5) and assists (5.5), De’Anthony Melton for steals (1.6), and Kristaps Porzingis for blocks (1.1).
As for the perimeter, the Dubs shot 35.6% from deep as a team, with five players shooting above league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
Heat vs. Warriors Key Matchup
The question is how Bam Adebayo and Antetokounmpo fit and whether the revamped Miami roster can start to hit more perimeter shots.
Shooting 32.2% from deep won’t get the job done, especially with Giannis needing 3-point snipers to open his driving lanes.
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Steph Curry showed in the opener he still has the ability to shoot lights out and will keep the Warriors in some games they have no business being in.
Several Miami guards will draw the assignment to slow Curry. Also keep an eye on rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, who has impressed early.
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors bottom line: Miami is allowing opponents the highest 3-point efficiency and shots from deep. That plays right into Steph Curry and the Warriors hands.
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Basketball Betting Trends
- Miami is 34-22 1H (First Half) ATS as a road underdog
- The Heat are 37-25 1H ATS in non-conference games
- Miami is 32-23 OVER as a road underdog
- Golden State is 3-6 ATS off a home win against a division rival
- The Warriors are 8-23 ATS after a win by 6 points or less
- Golden State is 32-19 OVER off a home win [1, 2]
Heat Warriors Free Pick: Warriors -7.5
Here is my Heat Warriors free pick: I’m playing Golden State ATS because I’m a sucker for a win streak and the Heat barely beat the lowly Clippers.
Couple that with the issues the Heat are having defensively and particularly against perimeter shots.
Per John Schuhmann: The Warriors have seen a pretty significant drop in 3-point rate from when they led the league last season, but they’re still the only team that ranks in the top five in both 3-point percentage (40.0%, second) and the percentage of their shots that have come from beyond the arc (47.2%, fifth). They account for three of the 11 times when a team has made at least 20 3s, with no other team having done it more than once.
For these reasons, I’m rolling with the Dubs to win and cover.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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The Warriors are not delivering payments to Kristaps Porzingis on his $20 million salary, ruling that he is not rendering services, sources tell me and @anthonyVslater. Golden State is permitted to move his contract at any point before the Feb. 11 deadline even without paying him currently, and will continue exhausting trade avenues as the 31-year-old leans toward ending his NBA career.
Absorbing Porzingis’ near-expiring deal would allow a rival team to move a salary out and save money and clear a roster spot via a buyout.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) November 4, 2026
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