Free Pick: Thunder vs. Lakers Odds
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2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – OKC Thunder vs LA Lakers
(3-0) OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers (0-3)
Date: May 11, 2025
Time: 10:30 PM ET
Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
NBA Moneyline Odds: Thunder -525 | Lakers +450 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Thunder -11.5 | Lakers +11.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 214.5
Here’s why I’m backing the visiting favorites in my Thunder Lakers free pick and gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Thunder vs. Lakers Gameday
The prime time event on Monday features the OKC Thunder on the road to face the LA Lakers.
OKC took the advantage in the series by winning both home games, and set up the sweep with a 131-108 victory in Game 3.
All five Thunder starters plus two reserves scored in double figures, led by Ajay Mitchell with a double-double of 24 points and 10 assists. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 23 points but shot 7 of 20.
Like their opponent, all five Lakers starters scored in double figures, plus one reserve. Rui Hachimura led the way, scoring 21 points. LeBron James added 19 points and nine assists.
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OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers Odds & Last 5
This season, the Thunder dominated, sweeping the series 4-0 and holds a current 6-1 edge over the Lakers in the last two regular seasons.
Much of the playoff history between the clubs occurred when the Thunder were still the Seattle Sonics, so, for the purpose of keeping things 100 – I’m just focusing on the series the clubs have played since OKC became the franchise city. During that tenure, the squads have played twice, and each has won once.
Both clubs had relatively easy first-round series, albeit OKC sailed through theirs while the Lakers had to battle without their top two scoring options for most of the series.
The Thunder are favored by 11.5 points with an over/under of 214.5 points
Thunder Stats
OKC ranks seventh (117.9) on offense and first on defense (105.9). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+12.0) and run the 15th-ranked pace (100.37).
The NBA’s top team averages 119.4 points per game while its opponents average 107.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.6 (18th) and 44.2 (13th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.1 points) as well as for assists (6.6), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (9.4), Cason Wallace for steals (1.9), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.9).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shoot above league average, with the team shooting 36.5% overall.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
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Lakers Stats
LA ranks tenth offensively (117.0) and tied for 20th defensively (115.5), with the 14th best net rating (1.5), running a pace of 99.22, which ranks tied for 21st in the association.
The West’s fourth seed averages 116.3 points per game while its opponents average 114.6 points. In terms of dimes and boards, the Lakers average 25.9 (17th) and 41.0 (27th), respectively.
Team leaders* for key categories are Luka Doncic for scoring (**33.5 points), assists (8.3), and steals (1.6), Deandre Ayton for rebounding (8.0), and for blocks (1.0).
LA shoots the deep ball at an average of 35.9%, with eight players shooting above league average, although Doncic and Reeves are in that mix.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers bottom line:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to produce one of his typical games in this series and is due for a breakout. Ajay Mitchell has filled in with perfection, and the Thunder reserves continue to dominate. In Game 3, OKC’s bench outscored LA 44 to 31.
The Thunder are also controlling the pace, but still got up nine additional shots, albeit the Lakers got 25 free throws (+15 on the Thunder).
OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers Basketball Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City’s last 6 games.
- Oklahoma City is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games.
- Also, the Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the Lakers’ last 13 games.
- Additionally, the Lakers are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games played in May.
Thunder Lakers Free Pick: Thunder -11.5
Here is my Thunder Lakers free pick.
Turnovers continued to be an issue for the Lakers, with the Thunder forcing 23 in Game 3, which led to 31 points for OKC. If that trend continues, this series will end tonight.
Certainly, J.J. Redick’s game plan is solid enough, but again, he simply doesn’t have the depth to outlast or outplay the Thunder.
Per John Schuhmann: The Thunder had the No. 1 offense in the first round, not just in regard to overall efficiency, but also relative to their opponent’s regular-season numbers. They scored 14 more points per 100 possessions than the Suns allowed in the regular season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaging 33.8 points on a true shooting percentage of 67.8%. He shot 17-for-30 (57%) on pull-up 2-pointers.
In Game 3, OKC led in paint scoring (64 to 44) and also won the fast break (19 to 9), with the benches being the key separator as OKC’s bench outscored LA 44 to 31.
I made the mistake of believing the 76ers would play with pride and take Game 4, but I was wrong and won’t make that mistake again.
For that reason, I’m riding the Thunder brooms as they sweep the series while covering the spread.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
The Thunder are winners tonight.
Spurs-Wolves is going at least six. The soonest it can end is Friday the 15th. Game 7 would be Sunday. WCF begins the 18th or 20th.
If OKC sweeps Monday, they’ll have one full week of rest and Jalen Williams will have had one month to recover.
— Kevin O’Connor (@KevinOConnor) May 11, 2026
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