Free NBA Pick: Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds
Looking for OKC Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Thunder taking on the Mavericks on October 28th at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. This free NBA basketball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Thunder Mavericks matchup.
2026 NBA Handicapping – OKC Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
Thunder -205 | Mavericks +170Here’s why I’m backing OKC in my Thunder Mavericks free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Thunder vs. Mavericks Gameday
OKC travels to Dallas on October 28th for an NBA matchup at American Airlines Center. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 ET, with both teams seeking to extend their winning streak.
It’s a tough game for the Thunder, who lost not one, but two of their starters to gruesome injuries. Jalen Williams suffered a broken fibula and a dislocated ankle, while Cason Wallace suffered a torn labrum.
If that’s not bad enough, Alex Caruso will be out with an ankle sprain.
Tough days ahead in OKC losing their two starters, but if any team has enough depth to deal with major injuries to their core it’s the Thunder.
Cooper Flagg had suffered an injury but was back in the lineup for the win versus the Heat as was Kyrie Irving who sat the game prior versus the Spurs.
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OKC Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds & Previous Games
OKC is 4-0 through four games in spite of the recent injuries, defeating the Spurs (116-104), Nuggets (96-84), Clippers (108-101), and the Suns (125-114).
Dallas is 2-2 through four matches with losses to the Rockets (110-128) and Spurs (106-122) versus wins against the Pacers (121-105) and Heat (113-109).
Last season, the Thunder swept the Mavericks 3-0 and hold an all-time edge of 94-87.
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Thunder Stats
OKC ranked seventh (117.9) on offense and first on defense (105.9). Additionally, the Thunder held the top-ranked net rating (+12.0) and ran the 15th-ranked pace (100.37).
The NBA’s top team averaged 119.4 points per game while its opponents averaged 107.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averaged 25.6 (18th) and 44.2 (13th), respectively.
OKC will definitely miss Alex Caruso who spearheaded a defense that allowed just 77 points per 100 possessions in his 67 minutes of play.
OKC’s team leaders* were Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.1 points) as well as for assists (6.6), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (9.4), Cason Wallace for steals (1.9), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.9).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shot above league average, with the team shooting 36.5% overall.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
Mavericks Stats
Dallas ranked 27th offensively (110.2), tied for 13th defensively (113.5), and was tied for 23rd in net rating (-3.3), while running a pace of 102.47, which ranked fourth overall.
The West’s 12th-place Mavericks averaged 25.1 assists (22nd) and 44.7 rebounds (tied for 11th). Dallas scored 113.9 points per game while their opponents averaged 117.4 points.
Dallas’ team leaders* were Cooper Flagg for scoring (20.4) and steals (1.2), P.J. Washington for rebounds (7.0), while Ryan Nembhard led for assists (4.9) and Daniel Gafford for blocks (1.3).
Perimeter shooting was a weakness for the Mavericks, with five players averaging over 36.8% from deep while the team averaged 34.2%.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
Thunder vs. Mavericks Key Matchup
With so many Thunder players out, the emphasis on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will increase but he’ll need help, which should come from Ajay Mitchell.
Mark Daigneault may also look to utilize his incredible depth up front, assuming Chet Holmgren is back, although Isaiah Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams, and Aday Mara give them more than enough options.
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Dallas will serve up their dynamic duo of Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving. The question is whether the Thunder will be able to maintain the dynamic defense they were showcasing.
Losing JDub and Wallace will make that a difficult task and factoring in the loss of Caruso punctuates just how much talent OKC lost in the matter of two games.
OKC Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks bottom line: Dallas is struggling to score in the paint and will be hard-pressed to change that dynamic against the second-best team at holding opponents to the fewest PITP (39.5).
OKC Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Basketball Betting Trends
- Over is 4-0 in the Mavericks last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas.
- Over is 5-1 in Thunder’s last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Thunder’s last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 home games.
Thunder Mavericks Free Pick: Thunder -5.5
Here is my Thunder Mavericks free pick: I’m playing the Thunder ATS as they’ve shown they can win even without their stars, as they did in Phoenix.
SGA and Mitchell will need to carry much of the scoring, while their center depth will offer an advantage the Mavericks can’t counter.
OKC brings in the fourth ranked defense (102.0) and fifth best net rating (+10.3) to this match.
Dallas may only be .500, but they’ve looked solid in their victories and were in the match against the Spurs without Flagg and Irving.
Still, I like the Thunder to win and cover.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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Sam Presti confirms Jalen Williams has a fractured fibula and dislocated left ankle. https://t.co/v3BdQ2m7HH
— Cason Wallace Supremacy (@Wiggs4Pres) October 26, 2026
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