Free Pick: Timberwolves vs. Spurs Odds
Looking for Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Timberwolves taking on the Spurs on 5/6 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Timberwolves Spurs free pick.
2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs
(1-0) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs (0-1)
Date: May 6, 2026
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
NBA Moneyline Odds: Timberwolves +320 | Spurs -357 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Timberwolves +9.5 | Spurs -9.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 215.5
Here’s why I’m backing the visiting underdog Minnesota as outlined below in my Timberwolves Spurs free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Gameday
Wednesday serves up the second game of the second round between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the San Antonio Spurs in their semi-finals matchup.
Minnesota got the early edge in the series winning Game 1 on the road 104-102. The biggest news was Anthony Edwards made an early return from his hyperextended knee injury. AntMan entered off the bench playing 25 minutes scoring 18 points, with three rebounds, three assists, and a block. Julius Randle was the high scorer with 21 points.
The Spurs had seven players score in double figures with Dylan Harper being the top points man with 18. Victor Wembanyama had a tough shooting night going 5 of 17 from the field although he collected a historic 12 blocks, along with 15 rebounds.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds & Last 5
This season it was the Wolves who prevailed to take a 2-1 regular-season series win versus San Antonio and are 5-2 over the last two seasons.
As for their playoff history, the teams have only met on two prior occasions, with the Spurs winning on both occasions. That said, the last time these clubs played was in 2001, so under very different versions of the teams.
Coming into the playoffs, the Wolves dealt with copious injuries to their core, specifically missing Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Minny went 3-2 in the final five games and was middling, going 5-5 through the last 10 matches.
San Antonio finished the season on a 14-2 run, looking primed for the postseason, and overcame an injury to their superstar Victor Wembanyama in the first round to sail through to the semis.
The oddsmakers are favoring San Antonio to win by 9.5 points with an over/under of 215.5 points.
Timberwolves Stats
Minnesota ranks 13th offensively (115.6), eighth defensively (112.5), and 10th in net rating (+3.1), running a pace of 101.50, which also ranks 10th overall.
The West’s sixth-place Wolves average 26.1 assists (16th) and 44.1 rebounds (tied for 12th). Minny scores 118.0 points per game while their opponents average 114.6 points.
The Wolves team leaders* are Anthony Edwards for scoring (28.8 points) and steals (1.4), Rudy Gobert for rebounding (11.5) and blocks (1.6), and Julius Randle for assists (5.0).
As for the perimeter, it’s a strength for the Wolves, who average 37.0% from deep with eight players shooting above the league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
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Spurs Stats
San Antonio ranks fifth offensively (118.6) and third defensively (110.2), while it is second in net rating (+8.5) and 12th in pace (100.72).
The West’s second seed averages 119.7 points per game while its opponents average 111.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, San Antonio averages 28.1 (ninth) and 47.1 (second), respectively.
San Antonio’s team leaders* are Victor Wembanyama, who tops the Spurs in scoring (24.8 points), rebounding (11.5), and **blocks (3.1), while Stephon Castle leads in assists (7.4) and in steals (1.1).
As for perimeter shooting, the Spurs have five players shooting above the league average, but as a team, they shoot 35.9%.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs bottom line:
Victor Wembanyama will have to be the best player on the hardwood if the Spurs want to advance and he clearly was special … but not the best (Edwards) in Game 1.
Minny utilized various defenders on Wemby often putting a smaller forward or guard on him and it caused him fits. He’s not used to the physicality yet because the Suns didn’t approach defending him the same way.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Basketball Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games.
- Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against San Antonio.
- Also, San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio’s last 6 games.
- Additionally, San Antonio is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games.
Timberwolves Spurs Free Pick: Wolves +9.5
Here is my Timberwolves Spurs free pick.
Minnesota didn’t have Ayo Dosunmu and they felt the difference as Bones Hyland made several questionable plays. If Ayo returns and Edwards gets some additional minutes that issue can be cleared up. Dosunmu is a game time decision for Game 2.
It was clear immediately, that the Spurs were a little shell shocked by Minny’s defensive game plan. Wemby got rocked the most, but none of the Spurs broke out for a 20+ game. ”
Per John Schuhmann: Wembanyama averaged 34 points in less than 29 minutes in his two games against the Wolves. He was defended more by Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels than by Rudy Gobert. Yet only 32% of Wembanyama’s shots came in the paint, his lowest rate against any opponent. He did go 21-for-24 at the free-throw line and the Wolves had the highest opponent free-throw rate in the first around, so he should be prepared to get hit often over the next two weeks.
The area that jumps out is how well Minny defended the 3-point line (held SAS to 28%). The Spurs won the paint battle 58-52 and fast break scoring (27 to 10). They’ll need to repeat that effort and sprinkle in some deep balls to be more successful on Wednesday.
Notably, the Wolves are the question mark in Game 2. Will they be satisfied with getting a split … or will they recognize that taking Game 2 will put the Spurs backs against the wall?
I’m banking on Minny being as tenacious in Game 2 (especially if Dosunmu is back), so I’ll take the points, but I think the Spurs get the victory behind a big game from Wemby.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Gilbert Arenas says this series is over for the Spurs:
“I’m just going to be honest with you. There was nothing the Spurs did that showed anything that can beat the Wolves in a series. They still don’t know what they offense looks like, Wemby still don’t understand guard offense… pic.twitter.com/G1CPoRwgMF
— NBA Courtside (@NBA__Courtside) May 5, 2026
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