Free Pick: Timberwolves vs. Spurs Odds
Looking for Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Timberwolves taking on the Spurs on 5/12 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Timberwolves Spurs free pick.
2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs
(2-2) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs (2-2)
Date: May 6, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
NBA Moneyline Odds: Timberwolves +335 | Spurs -417 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Timberwolves +10.5 | Spurs -10.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 218.5
Here’s why I’m backing the visiting underdog Minnesota as outlined below in my Timberwolves Spurs free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Gameday
Game 5 between the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs is the only series on tap on Tuesday. The teams arrive knotted at two wins each after the Wolves won 114-109 this weekend.
All five Wolves’ starters scored in double figures, plus one reserve, with Anthony Edwards leading the way, serving up 36 points, six rebounds, and connecting on 3 of his 5 deep balls.
The Spurs were at a major disadvantage, losing Victor Wembanyama to a Flagrant 2 early in the second frame. Still, four players garnered double-digit scoring, led by De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, who each scored 24 points.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds & Last 5
This season it was the Wolves who prevailed to take a 2-1 regular-season series win versus San Antonio and are 5-2 over the last two seasons.
As for their playoff history, the teams have only met on two prior occasions, with the Spurs winning on both occasions. That said, the last time these clubs played was in 2001, so under very different versions of the teams.
Coming into the playoffs, the Wolves dealt with copious injuries to their core, specifically missing Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Minny went 3-2 in the final five games and was middling, going 5-5 through the last 10 matches.
San Antonio finished the season on a 14-2 run, looking primed for the postseason, and overcame an injury to their superstar Victor Wembanyama in the first round to sail through to the semis.
The oddsmakers are favoring San Antonio to win by 10.5 points with an over/under of 218.5 points.
Timberwolves Stats
Minnesota ranks 13th offensively (115.6), eighth defensively (112.5), and 10th in net rating (+3.1), running a pace of 101.50, which also ranks 10th overall.
The West’s sixth-place Wolves average 26.1 assists (16th) and 44.1 rebounds (tied for 12th). Minny scores 118.0 points per game while their opponents average 114.6 points.
The Wolves team leaders* are Anthony Edwards for scoring (28.8 points) and steals (1.4), Rudy Gobert for rebounding (11.5) and blocks (1.6), and Julius Randle for assists (5.0).
As for the perimeter, it’s a strength for the Wolves, who average 37.0% from deep with eight players shooting above the league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
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Spurs Stats
San Antonio ranks fifth offensively (118.6) and third defensively (110.2), while it is second in net rating (+8.5) and 12th in pace (100.72).
The West’s second seed averages 119.7 points per game while its opponents average 111.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, San Antonio averages 28.1 (ninth) and 47.1 (second), respectively.
San Antonio’s team leaders* are Victor Wembanyama, who tops the Spurs in scoring (24.8 points), rebounding (11.5), and **blocks (3.1), while Stephon Castle leads in assists (7.4) and in steals (1.1).
As for perimeter shooting, the Spurs have five players shooting above the league average, but as a team, they shoot 35.9%.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs bottom line:
After getting tossed in Game 4, Victor Wembanyama (no further action coming – see Tweet of the Day) will be on a mission to gain back the edge in what is now a best-of-three series.
Likewise, Anthony Edwards will be dialed in, but you have to wonder how his knees are faring with him having to do so much for the Wolves.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Basketball Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games.
- Minnesota is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games played in May.
- Also, San Antonio is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio’s last 5 games against Minnesota.
- Additionally, San Antonio is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games.
Timberwolves Spurs Free Pick: Wolves +10.5
Here is my Timberwolves Spurs free pick.
Although the Spurs don’t live and die by the 3-ball, it did play a factor in their losses. Specifically, in Game 4, they shot 6 of 26 from deep for 23%. Comparing that to the Wolves, who shot 37% (10 of 27), and they picked up 12 extra points in the category.
Without Wemby, Minny also won the glass, which likely won’t happen with him back. San Antonio won both fast-break (17-7) and paint scoring (58-50). Those areas are likely to swell with their superstar back.
Per John Schuhmann: Wembanyama averaged 34 points in less than 29 minutes in his two games against the Wolves. He was defended more by Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels than by Rudy Gobert. Yet only 32% of Wembanyama’s shots came in the paint, his lowest rate against any opponent. He did go 21-for-24 at the free-throw line and the Wolves had the highest opponent free-throw rate in the first around, so he should be prepared to get hit often over the next two weeks.
It sure feels like this might be the only semi-finals to go the distance, and I’m sticking with that theory as I select the Spurs to win Game 5 at home. That said, I don’t like the spread and believe AntMan will have a say, so take the points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
There will be no further discipline for Spurs star Victor Wembanyama after he was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in Minnesota on Sunday night, sources tell ESPN. No suspension, no fine. Wembanyama will play in Game 5 against the Timberwolves on Tuesday night in San Antonio. pic.twitter.com/GOGCbIcbQP
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) May 11, 2026
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