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2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets
(0-1) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets (1-0)
Date: Apr 20, 2026
Time: 10:30 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
NBA Moneyline Odds: Wolves +151 | Nuggets -240 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Wolves +6.5| Nuggets -6.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 231.5
Here’s why I’m taking the visiting underdogs as per below in my Wolves Nuggets free pick & gambling prediction for Game 2 of the West’s #6 vs. #3 NBA playoffs matchup.
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Wolves vs. Nuggets Gameday
Game one is in the books, and now the teams make adjustments. Game 2 of the 2026 NBA Playoffs between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets is on tap as the closing match of the night.
What was anticipated to be the most competitive of the eight playoff series lived up to expectations for 3.5 quarters on Saturday as the Wolves and Nuggets battled. In the end, Denver pulled away to collect a 116-105 victory and take an early 1-0 lead in the series
Six Wolves scored in double figures, led by Anthony Edwards with 22 points, while Rudy Gobert registered a double-double of 17 points and 10 rebounds.
All five Nuggets starters reached double-digit scoring, led by Jamal Murray with 30 points, while Nikola Jokic registered a triple-double of 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Odds & Last 5
The teams played four times this season, with the Nuggtes winning three of the four meetings.
The clubs have a playoff history, having faced each other three times in prior seasons, with the Wolves winning two of those series.
It’s also the third time in the last three seasons the clubs have met, with the most recent series occurring two seasons ago when the Wolves overcame a double-digit deficit in Game 7 in Denver to dispense of the Nuggets.
Coming into the playoffs, the Wolves dealt with copious injuries to their core, specifically missing Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Minny went 3-2 in the final five games and was middling, going 5-5 through the last 10 matches.
In contrast, the Nuggets were on fire to close the season on a 12-game winning streak, including victories versus six playoff seeds and two current play-in teams.
Denver is favored by 6.5 points with an over/under of 231.5 points.
Wolves Stats
Minnesota ranks 13th offensively (115.6), eighth defensively (112.5), and 10th in net rating (+3.1), running a pace of 101.50, which also ranks 10th overall.
The West’s sixth-place Wolves average 26.1 assists (16th) and 44.1 rebounds (tied for 12th). Minny scores 118.0 points per game while their opponents average 114.6 points.
The Wolves team leaders* are Anthony Edwards for scoring (28.8 points) and steals (1.4), Rudy Gobert for rebounding (11.5) and blocks (1.6), and Julius Randle for assists (5.0).
As for the perimeter, it’s a strength for the Wolves, who average 37.0% from deep with eight players shooting above the league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
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Nuggets Stats
Denver ranks first offensively (121.2) and 21st defensively (116.0) while they are seventh in net rating (+5.2) and rank 20th in pace (99.49).
The West’s third seed averages 122.1 points per game while its opponents average 116.9 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Denver averages 29.0 (fourth) and 44.0 (14th), respectively.
Team leaders* in key categories are Nikola Jokic for scoring (27.7), **rebounding (12.9), assists (10.7), and steals (1.4), while Peyton Watson leads in blocks (1.1).
As for perimeter efficiency, the Nuggets as a team shoot 39.6% (1st in NBA) with 12 (!!!) players shooting above the league average.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets bottom line:
Through the initial game one, everything I anticipated in the opening preview came to pass. The Wolves did their best to limit Jokic, but in the end, he still managed to impact the game on the glass and all the key areas, such as scoring and assists.
Where Minnesota could make adjustments might be in how they guard Jamal Murray. The Canadian was uber aggressive offensively, and it led to 16 trips to the charity stripe, where he hit them all.
Moving forward in the series, Minny can’t have both players in this duo being this successful or they’ll be fishing soon.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Basketball Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Denver.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games.
- Minnesota is 5-3 ATS in its last 8 games on the road.
- Also, Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 6 games.
- Additionally, Denver is 12-0 SU in its last 12 games at home.
Wolves Nuggets Free Pick: Wolves +6.5
Here is my Wolves Nuggets free pick.
As expected, Gobert and McDaniels drew the assignments on Jokic and Murray, respectively with other Wolves trying to offer help defense. They failed at that assignment as it was specifically the Nuggets duo who pushed Denver over the top.
Still, the game was close for the majority of the match, so small tweaks could make the difference. Things got a little chippy at times on Saturday, so it’s easy to see the rivalry, and it won’t be surprising if the series gets even chippier as it progresses.
Minnesota ranks 29th in free throw percentage while the Nuggets rank fifth with the second most made shots. In a series where a few points could decide every game that’s a considerable advantage.
Anthony Edwards still looks hampered, so he’s likely playing on a less than healthy knee because the burst was missing in Game 1.
Moving into Game 2, the Wolves need their bench to be more of a factor as they only outscored the Nuggets by two points, and that’s where they can gain some traction.
Denver was content to let Gobert score in order to lock down Edwards, so I wouldn’t expect them to shift that strategy, especially with Rudy going 1 of 5 from the line.
I’m not sure if this is must-win territory for the Wolves, but if they lose again, they’ll need to win four out of five, which isn’t ideal.
With that, I anticipate a more physical and aggressive Wolves squad on Monday, so I’ll take the points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Anthony Edwards is working hard. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but that knee still looks fresh even with the 11 game hiatus. Julius Randle has to find a rhythm. Jokic has 7 points and the Nuggets are keeping it a 1 possession game. pic.twitter.com/9qg5noF8GU
— Global Utopia Sports (@GL8BAL_SPORTS) April 18, 2026
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