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2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets
(0-0) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets (0-0)
Date: Apr 18, 2026
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
NBA Moneyline Odds: Wolves +221 | Nuggets -238 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Wolves +6.5| Nuggets -6.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 231.5
Here’s why I’m taking the hometown favorites as per below in my Wolves Nuggets free pick & gambling prediction for Game 1 of the West’s #6 vs. #3 NBA playoffs matchup.
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Wolves vs. Nuggets Gameday
It’s day one of the 2026 NBA Playoffs with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets on tap in the second game of the day at 3:30 p.m.
Minnesota finished the season in the sixth seed with a record of 49-33, coming up just short of their preseason projected win/loss total of 49.5 games.
Denver finished the season in the third seed with a record of 54-28, overachieving on their preseason projected win/loss total of 53.5 games.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Odds & Last 5
The teams played four times this season, with the Nuggtes winning three of the four meetings.
The clubs have a playoff history, having faced each other three times in prior seasons, with the Wolves winning two of those series.
It’s also the third time in the last three seasons the clubs have met, with the most recent series occurring two seasons ago when the Wolves overcame a double-digit deficit in Game 7 at Denver to dispense of the Nuggets.
Coming into the playoffs, the Wolves dealt with copious injuries to their core, specifically missing Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Minny went 3-2 in the final five games and was middling, going 5-5 through the last 10 matches.
In contrast, the Nuggets were on fire to close the season on a 12-game winning streak, including victories versus six playoff seeds and two current play-in teams.
Denver is favored by 6.5 points with an over/under of 231.5 points.
Wolves Stats
Minnesota ranks 13th offensively (115.6), eighth defensively (112.5), and 10th in net rating (+3.1), running a pace of 101.50, which also ranks 10th overall.
The West’s sixth-place Wolves average 26.1 assists (16th) and 44.1 rebounds (tied for 12th). Minny scores 118.0 points per game while their opponents average 114.6 points.
The Wolves team leaders* are Anthony Edwards for scoring (28.8 points) and steals (1.4), Rudy Gobert for rebounding (11.5) and blocks (1.6), and Julius Randle for assists (5.0).
As for the perimeter, it’s a strength for the Wolves, who average 37.0% from deep with eight players shooting above the league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
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Nuggets Stats
Denver ranks first offensively (121.2) and 21st defensively (116.0) while they are seventh in net rating (+5.2) and rank 20th in pace (99.49).
The West’s third seed averages 122.1 points per game while its opponents average 116.9 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Denver averages 29.0 (fourth) and 44.0 (14th), respectively.
Team leaders* in key categories are Nikola Jokic for scoring (27.7), **rebounding (12.9), assists (10.7), and steals (1.4), while Peyton Watson leads in blocks (1.1).
As for perimeter efficiency, the Nuggets as a team shoot 39.6% (1st in NBA) with 12 (!!!) players shooting above the league average.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets bottom line:
Denver boasts the league’s top-rated offense with the most efficient perimeter shooting, featuring the best scoring duo in the playoffs of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.
For the Wolves to win the series, they’ll need to find a way to limit that duo and defend the 3-ball while also keeping up offensively on their end.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Basketball Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games against Denver.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games.
- Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.
- Also, Denver is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 5 games.
- Additionally, Denver is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games at home.
Wolves Nuggets Free Pick: Nuggets -6.5
Here is my Wolves Nuggets free pick.
This series is projected to be the most competitive and entertaining of the first round. Two seasons ago, the series went the distance, and if fans are lucky, history will repeat.
Presumably, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels will draw the defensive assignments to guard Jokic and Murray. Conversely, the Nuggets’ main goal will be to limit Anthony Edwards, with Aaron Gordon likely to draw that defensive task.
An area where the Wolves can make their mark is on the defensive side of the hardwood, where they ranked seventh. Denver finished in the bottom third of the league defensively (21st), but in fairness, they were missing Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson for a good portion of the season, which never allowed them to gain much traction on that end.
Don’t be surprised if the Nuggets experience a jump defensively with those players back and the game slowing into half-court offense.
Minnesota ranks 29th in free throw percentage while the Nuggets rank fifth with the second most made shots. In a series where a few points could decide every game that’s a considerable advantage.
For years, the Nuggets struggled to maintain leads when Jokic sat, but this season, with a revamped bench, they’ve been much improved.
Similarly, Minny felt the loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, but with the addition of Ayo Dosunmu, that gap seems to have been filled. Look for him to be an x-factor, while Tim Hardaway Jr. and Watson could provide the same shot in the arm for Denver.
As always, health is key, and both teams are dealing with players who’ve recently returned from the injury list (Anthony Edwards/Jaden McDaniels | Aaron Gordon/Peyton Watson). To that end, in a series that could swing based on the margins, the team that can stay the healthiest may have the leg up.
Both clubs will want to strike first, and for me, that means Game 1 will focus on the superstars. As much as I’m a big Edwards fan, there is no one I’d pick over Jokic in a one-game setting. To that end, I’ll take the Nuggets to capture the early series lead and to cover the spread.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Your full Timberwolves-Nuggets schedule (times are Eastern). pic.twitter.com/AnSlaSfQIp
— Chris Hine (@ChristopherHine) April 15, 2026
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