Free Pick: Lakers vs. Thunder Odds
Looking for LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Lakers taking on the Thunder on 5/7 at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Lakers Thunder free pick.
2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder
(0-1) LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder (1-0)
Date: May 7, 2026
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Venue: The Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
NBA Moneyline Odds: Lakers +625 | Thunder -900 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Lakers +15.5 | Thunder -15.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 209.5
Here’s why I’m backing the visiting underdogs in my Lakers Thunder free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Lakers vs. Thunder Gameday
Thursday offers up the LA Lakers facing the OKC Thunder in the prime-time match of the night.
OKC took the early series lead with an absurdly easy 108-90 victory despite holding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander somewhat in check. The Canadian scored just 18 points and uncharacteristically had seven turnovers (with just six assists), but his teammates rose to the occasion, showcasing the Thunder’s depth.
LA was led by the 41-year old LeBron James with 27 points, but Austin Reaves was an anemic 3 of 16, and Marcus Smart was 4 of 15. Having your starting backcourt go 7 of 31 isn’t ideal, so the Lakers have ample tweaks to make prior to this match.
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LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder Odds & Last 5
This season, the Thunder dominated, sweeping the series 4-0 and hold a current 6-1 edge over the Lakers in the last two regular seasons.
Much of the playoff history between the clubs occurred when the Thunder were still the Seattle Sonics, so, for the purpose of keeping things 100 – I’m just focusing on the series the clubs have played since OKC became the franchise city. During that tenure, the squads have played twice, and each has won once.
Both clubs had relatively easy first-round series, albeit OKC sailed through theirs while the Lakers had to battle without their top two scoring options for most of the series.
OKC is favored by a whopping 15.5 points with an over/under of 209.5 points.
Lakers Stats
LA ranks tenth offensively (117.0) and tied for 20th defensively (115.5), with the 14th best net rating (1.5), running a pace of 99.22, which ranks tied for 21st in the association.
The West’s fourth seed averages 116.3 points per game while its opponents average 114.6 points. In terms of dimes and boards, the Lakers average 25.9 (17th) and 41.0 (27th), respectively.
Team leaders* for key categories are Luka Doncic for scoring (**33.5 points), assists (8.3), and steals (1.6), Deandre Ayton for rebounding (8.0), and for blocks (1.0).
LA shoots the deep ball at an average of 35.9%, with eight players shooting above league average, although Doncic and Reeves are in that mix.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
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Thunder Stats
OKC ranks seventh (117.9) on offense and first on defense (105.9). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+12.0) and run the 15th-ranked pace (100.37).
The NBA’s top team averages 119.4 points per game while its opponents average 107.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.6 (18th) and 44.2 (13th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.1 points) as well as for assists (6.6), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (9.4), Cason Wallace for steals (1.9), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.9).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shoot above league average, with the team shooting 36.5% overall.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder bottom line:
Both clubs are dealing with injuries as the Lakers await news on whether Luka Doncic can return, while the Thunder are once again missing Jalen Williams.
Both will miss Game 2, although Williams is said to be close to a return as he rehabs the hamstring injury. There were whispers that Doncic could be back for the series, but the update on Wednesday sure put a pin in that cushion.
Perhaps the biggest elephant in the room, however, is the fact that the Thunder beat the Lakers by an average of 29.3 points this season, and Williams missed two of those games.
LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder Basketball Betting Trends
- LA is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Lakers’ last 11 games.
- LA is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games against Oklahoma City.
- Also, Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Oklahoma City’s last 12 games.
- Additionally, Oklahoma City is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home.
Lakers Thunder Free Pick: Lakers +15.5
Here is my Lakers Thunder free pick.
Adding to the Lakers’ depth concerns, Luke Kennard and Jarid Vanderbilt are listed as questionable, but if you witnessed the latter’s injury, there is no way he’ll dress for Game 2.
While the Lakers had a solid game plan in place to slow SGA, they didn’t have enough other deterrents in place to win key categories, and with the roster they have, it’s hard to imagine they can check all those boxes. Plus, SGA isn’t likely to have another off game, even with the extra attention.
With all due respect to the Lakers, who are battle-tested and have LeBron, this should be an easy series for the association’s top seed.
Per John Schuhmann: The Thunder had the No. 1 offense in the first round, not just in regard to overall efficiency, but also relative to their opponent’s regular-season numbers. They scored 14 more points per 100 possessions than the Suns allowed in the regular season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaging 33.8 points on a true shooting percentage of 67.8%. He shot 17-for-30 (57%) on pull-up 2-pointers.
OKC won the fast break scoring, points scored off turnovers, and paint scoring, so SGA having a few hiccups didn’t matter.
With that said, I expect the Thunder to roll again, but 15.5 points is just too much for me to lean into, so I’ll take the Lakers and points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Thunder-Lakers is going to be an ugly series 😬
“This is standard…they played 12 guys in a playoff game. That is insane.” – Lou Williams
“Without Jalen Williams…remove the 2nd best player on any other team, they’d struggle.” – @ChandlerParsons@MichelleDBeadle | @TeamLou23 pic.twitter.com/aBDGQaChmP
— Run It Back (@RunItBackFDTV) May 6, 2026
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