Free Pick: Lakers vs. Thunder Odds
Looking for LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Lakers taking on the Thunder on 5/5 at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Lakers Thunder free pick.
2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder
(0-0) LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder (0-0)
Date: May 5, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: The Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
NBA Moneyline Odds: Lakers +675 | Thunder -950 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Lakers +16 | Thunder -16
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 213.5
Here’s why I’m backing the visiting underdogs in my Lakers Thunder free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Lakers vs. Thunder Gameday
Tuesday offers up the second set of Conference Semi-Finals as the LA Lakers face the OKC Thunder in the prime time match of the night.
LA advanced to this round with a 4-2 series versus the Houston Rockets, clinching in Game 6 with a score of 98-78. Only three Lakers scored in double digits in that match, led by LeBron James with 28 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists. Austin Reaves was back and scored 15 points in his 30:41 of playing time.
Meanwhile, the Thunder quietly became the only club to sweep their first-round series, disposing of the Phoenix Suns 131-122 in their final match. Six Thunder players scored in double figures, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 31 points and eight assists.
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LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder Odds & Last 5
This season, the Thunder dominated, sweeping the series 4-0 and hold a current 6-1 edge over the Lakers in the last two regular seasons.
Much of the playoff history between the clubs occurred when the Thunder were still the Seattle Sonics, so, for the purpose of keeping things 100 – I’m just focusing on the series the clubs have played since OKC became the franchise city. During that tenure, the squads have played twice, and each has won once.
Both clubs had relatively easy first-round series, albeit OKC sailed through theirs while the Lakers had to battle without their top two scoring options for most of the series.
OKC is favored by a whopping 16 points with an over/under of 213.5 points.
Lakers Stats
LA ranks tenth offensively (117.0) and tied for 20th defensively (115.5), with the 14th best net rating (1.5), running a pace of 99.22, which ranks tied for 21st in the association.
The West’s fourth seed averages 116.3 points per game while its opponents average 114.6 points. In terms of dimes and boards, the Lakers average 25.9 (17th) and 41.0 (27th), respectively.
Team leaders* for key categories are Luka Doncic for scoring (**33.5 points), assists (8.3), and steals (1.6), Deandre Ayton for rebounding (8.0), and for blocks (1.0).
LA shoots the deep ball at an average of 35.9%, with eight players shooting above league average, although Doncic and Reeves are in that mix.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
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Thunder Stats
OKC ranks seventh (117.9) on offense and first on defense (105.9). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+12.0) and run the 15th-ranked pace (100.37).
The NBA’s top team averages 119.4 points per game while its opponents average 107.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.6 (18th) and 44.2 (13th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.1 points) as well as for assists (6.6), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (9.4), Cason Wallace for steals (1.9), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.9).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shoot above league average, with the team shooting 36.5% overall.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder bottom line:
Both clubs are dealing with injuries as the Lakers await news on whether Luka Doncic can return, while the Thunder are once again missing Jalen Williams. Both will miss Game 1, although Williams is said to be close to a return as he rehabs the hamstring injury. There are also whispers that Doncic could be back for Game 3.
Perhaps the biggest elephant in the room, however, is the fact that the Thunder beat the Lakers by an average of 29.3 points this season, and Williams missed two of those games.
LA Lakers vs. OKC Thunder Basketball Betting Trends
- LA is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the Lakers’ last 10 games.
- LA is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games against Oklahoma City.
- Also, Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City’s last 7 games.
- Additionally, Oklahoma City is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games.
Lakers Thunder Free Pick: Lakers +8.5
Here is my Lakers Thunder free pick.
With the exits of the Nuggets and Celtics, plus the Wolves taking an early lead in their series against the Spurs, the Thunder have to be thrilled as they begin Round 2.
With all due respect to the Lakers, who are battle-tested and have LeBron James, this should be an easy series for the association’s top seed.
Per John Schuhmann: The Thunder had the No. 1 offense in the first round, not just in regard to overall efficiency, but also relative to their opponent’s regular-season numbers. They scored 14 more points per 100 possessions than the Suns allowed in the regular season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaging 33.8 points on a true shooting percentage of 67.8%. He shot 17-for-30 (57%) on pull-up 2-pointers.
As the teams arrive to open their series, the Lakers are thrilled to have gotten some extra time off due to the East’s bracket needing seven games to decide three series. That’s important for 41-year-old James, who will only get two days off once in this series. It was also important for Reaves, who looked rusty when he returned (shot 2 for 12 from deep).
Ultimately, I’m rolling with the home team to win, and while that 29.3 number looms, I’ll still take the points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Western Conference Semifinals schedule: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/Iyi76pH8ic
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) May 2, 2026
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