Free Pick: Warriors vs. Suns Odds
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2026 NBA Play-In Handicapping – Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns
(38-45) Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns (45-38)
Date: Apr 17, 2026
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Venue: The Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
NBA Moneyline Odds: Warriors +135 | Suns -150 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Warriors +3.5 | Suns -3.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 219.5
Here’s why I’m backing the visiting underdog as outlined in my Warriors Suns free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Warriors vs. Suns Gameday
Friday serves up the final two Play-In games with the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns closing out the tournament and locking in the final playoff team.
Golden State delivered on my prediction to take the points, defeating the Clippers 126-121. While I noted Steph Curry could have ‘one of those nights’, even I didn’t foresee Al Horford or Kristaps Porzingis stepping up as they did.
The Dubs overcame a 13-point deficit in the final frame with four 3-pointers from Horford, masterclass-level defense from Draymond Green, and Curry delivering clutch time shooting.
Phoenix gets to this final game after losing 110-114 to the Portland Trail Blazers. While the differential was just four points, it never really felt like the Suns were in this one in the second half. They looked like the young team that they are, and once Dillon Brooks fouled out, the writing was on the wall.
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Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Odds & Last 5
Last season, the teams split their four matches, each winning twice, but this year, despite all the injuries, the Warriors won the season series three games to one.
Golden State dealt with the loss of Jimmy Butler for the season and Steph Curry out for a large portion of the second half due to runner’s knee. They finished the season with a record of 37-45 and struggled, going 1-7 through their last eight matches.
Phoenix was stronger during the stretch run, going 6-10 through their last 16 matches. Like their opponent, they navigated injuries, with both Devon Booker and Dillon Brooks sidelined. They finished the season with a record of 45-37, earning the right to host this final game.
The Suns are favored to win by 3.5 points with an over/under of 219.5 points.
Warriors Stats
Golden State ranks 19th (113.8) on offense and tied for 16th on defense (114.4). Additionally, the Dubs are 20th in net rating (-0.5) and run the 18th quickest pace (100.05).
The West’s 10th seed averages 114.6 points per game while its opponents average 115.2 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Golden State averages 28.9 (fifth) and 42.3 (tied for 22nd), respectively.
Team leaders* for key categories are Stephen Curry for scoring (26.6), Draymond Green for rebounding (5.5) and assists (5.5), De’Anthony Melton for steals (1.6), and Kristaps Porzingis for blocks (1.1).
As for the perimeter, the Dubs shoot 35.6% from deep as a team, with five players shooting above league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
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Suns Stats
Phoenix ranks 17th offensively (114.2) and tied for ninth defensively (112.9) while they are 15th in net rating (+1.4) and rank 24th in pace (98.14).
The West’s seventh seed averages 112.6 points per game while its opponents average 111.1 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Phoenix averages 24.6 (27th) and 43.1 (20th), respectively.
Phoenix’s team leaders* are Devin Booker for scoring (26.1 points) and assists (6.0), Mark Williams for rebounds (8.0) and blocks (0.9), and Jordan Goodwin for steals (1.5).
Perimeter shooting is a strength for the Suns, who shoot 36.1 percent from deep with six players shooting above the league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns bottom line:
It’s win or go home for both these clubs, and an unenviable date versus the defending champions awaits.
The matchups in this one are a bit of a dream as Devin Booker and Steph Curry will look to play hero, while Draymond and Dillon the Villain will try to provide the motivation to carry their respective squads.
So far, the SoHI Play-In tournament has provided three quality, competitive matches (sorry – that Magic-76ers game was a tough watch), and this one feels like we’ll get another treat to complete the brackets for the playoffs.
The biggest question entering this match is whether the aging Warriors have anything left in the tank after that thrilling victory on Wednesday.
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Basketball Betting Trends
- Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State’s last 6 games played on a Friday.
- Golden State is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games.
- Also, Phoenix is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Phoenix’s last 11 games.
- Additionally, Phoenix is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing as the favourite.
Warriors Suns Free Pick: Warriors +3.5
Here is my Warriors Suns free pick.
Phoenix has the rest advantage, and while it’s only a day, to reiterate, you have to wonder just how much the game on Wednesday took out of the aging Warriors crew.
On the other hand, that win versus the Clippers might have given the Dubs just the right amount of swagger and belief in themselves.
Breaking it down, clearly the Suns are the younger, more athletic team, and they are big. Golden State has suffered from a lack of size all year, but if Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford can dust off the weariness from the energy they expended in LA, perhaps they can summon a repeat performance versus the Suns.
Per NBA.com: With Curry on the court, the Warriors have a 119.3 offensive rating and are 8.6 points per 100 possessions better than when he’s off the court (110.7 OFFRTG).
How much will experience play a role in this match? Sure, Devin Booker has experience, but against the likes of Curry, Green, and Kerr, is that enough?
Will the benches play a role, and how healthy is Curry, who looked tired in the third quarter versus LA before summoning his clutch-time heroics?
For the Suns to win, they’ll need to draw upon their second-best perimeter defense and get something from their reserves. Logically, they are younger, good defensively, at home, and have a superstar who can take over a game.
Still, I can’t erase what I just saw from Curry and Co. Maybe I’m just eager to see what the Dubs could do against the champs or just want another four games of Curry magic, but I’m going with the Warriors again, so take the points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Draymond Green’s solitary confinement of Kawhi Leonard compilation, final 3 minutes: pic.twitter.com/tNabKVpLOX
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) April 16, 2026
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