Free NBA Pick: Warriors vs. Rockets Odds
Looking for Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Warriors taking on the Rockets on November 11th at Toyota Center in Houston, TX. This free NBA basketball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Warriors Rockets matchup.
2026 NBA Handicapping – Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Warriors +6.5 | Rockets -6.5Here’s why I’m backing Golden State ATS in my Warriors Rockets free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Warriors vs. Rockets Gameday
Golden State travels to Houston on November 11th for an NBA matchup at Toyota Center. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 ET, with both sporting identical 8-3 records.
Per John Schuhmann: After a West-best 7-1 start, the Rockets have lost two straight games to slide out of the top four in the conference. They still have a league-high six wins over teams that enter Week 4 with winning records. (No other team has more than four.)
The Warriors may be overachieving, but with the insertion of Yaxel Lendeberg into the lineup, dare I say they already have a Jimmy Butler replacement?
Houston is playing well, but there are still some concerns about the offense in my opinion. More on that below.
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Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets Odds & Previous Games
In history, the teams have played 241 times, with the Rockets holding the 130-111 edge. Last year, Houston won the season series two games to one.
Golden State arrives to this match having lambasted the New Orleans Pelicans 138-87. The trio of Lendeberg (27), Curry (25) and Brandin Podziemski (25) all scored over 20 points in less than 30 minutes.
The Rockets beat the Nuggets 110-100, but it should be noted Denver made it a game despite having horrendous travel to reach Houston from Mexico City.
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Warriors Stats
Golden State ranked 19th (113.8) on offense and tied for 16th on defense (114.4). Additionally, the Dubs were 20th in net rating (-0.5) and ran the 18th quickest pace (100.05).
The West’s 10th seed averaged 114.6 points per game while its opponents averaged 115.2 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Golden State averaged 28.9 (fifth) and 42.3 (tied for 22nd), respectively.
Per John Schuhmann: Curry has averaged 33.8 points on a true shooting percentage of 73.3% over the streak, and he had 17 of the Warriors’ 29 clutch points in their overtime win over Orlando on Saturday. His season-long true shooting percentage of 70.8% would be the highest in NBA history for a player who averaged at least 30 points, topping his own mark of 66.9% in 2015-16.
Team leaders* for key categories were Stephen Curry for scoring (26.6), Draymond Green for rebounding (5.5) and assists (5.5), De’Anthony Melton for steals (1.6), and Kristaps Porzingis for blocks (1.1).
As for the perimeter, the Dubs shot 35.6% from deep as a team, with five players shooting above league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
Rockets Stats
Houston ranked eighth (117.5) on offense and tied for fifth on defense (112.1). Additionally, the Rockets were sixth in net rating (+5.4) and ran the 29th slowest pace (96.98).
The West’s fifth seed averaged 115.2 points per game, while its opponents averaged 110.0 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Houston averaged 25.4 (21st) and 48.1 (1st), respectively.
Team leaders were Kevin Durant for scoring (26.0), while Alperen Sengun led in assists (6.2), rebounds (8.9), blocks (1.1), and steals (1.2).
Perimeter shooting was an advantage for Houston, which shot the deep ball at an average of 36.4%.
Six different players shot the deep ball above the league average.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
Warriors vs. Rockets Key Matchup
Steph Curry remains the showtime sniper and leads the Dubs with 30.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.3 assists while shooting 45.7% from the 3-point range.
Yaxel Lendeborg continues to impress as the Warriors are running much of the offense through the wing. He’s averaging 21.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.0 assists while shooting 44.3% from deep. Heck of a rookie who is in the conversation for RoY!
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Ball distribution is the key to the Rockets’ success, with Alperen Sengun leading the way in scoring with 21.3 points, plus 9.0 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game.
While Fred VanVleet trails Sengun with 5.6 assists per game, his presence makes a huge difference to the overall ball distribution of the club.
Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets bottom line: In history, Jokic has owned Sengun so missing Steven Adams to help quell the Joker is a real loss.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets bottom line: Houston has played well but suffered some hiccups last week, where they fell back into old habits of the ball sticking. That won’t fly with the Warriors who’ll look to push the pace on their side and confuse the Rockets defense with all their ball and player movement.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets Basketball Betting Trends
- Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Warriors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Warriors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in the Rockets’ last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 7-1 in Rockets’ last 8 games following an ATS win.
Warriors Rockets Free Pick: Warriors +6.5
Here is my Warriors Rockets free pick: I’m playing Golden State ATS. The Dubs are on an eight-game winning streak, looking to keep the winning going. Houston stopped the losing streak at two games with their win over Denver, but the Nuggets’ defense isn’t on par with the Warriors.
I expect a competitive match but like the points in this one.
Per John Schuhmann: The Rockets had a fourth-quarter lead against the Wolves and erased all of a 19-point deficit in Phoenix. But they scored just nine points on 12 clutch possessions (with Kevin Durant shooting 1-for-6) over the two games. Their three losses have come by a total of 18 points, while their seven wins have come by an average of 15.4.
Ultimately, I also like the Warriors to pull off the upset given the Rockets’ struggles in clutch time. If the Dubs can keep the game close, watch for them to pull out the win too. Either way, take the points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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PODZ, STEPH, AND YAXEL LEAD THE WARRIORS TO THEIR 8th STRAIGHT WIN 🔥
Podz: 25 PTS, 5 3PM
Steph: 25 PTS, 5 REB, 4 3PM
Yaxel: 23 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST, 4 3PMIt’s Golden State’s first 8-game winning streak since the 2021-22 season! https://t.co/W7dFW1qwRt
— NBA (@NBA) November 10, 2026
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